DUBAI: The Bahraini government and opposition groups are sliding into an increasingly dogged confrontation amid rising fears over violence, with authorities using arrests, raids and strict new laws against activists seeking political reform. Efforts to reconcile the government and opposition groups seeking reform seem ever more hostage to hardliners on both sides, diplomats and analysts say.

Many wonder where the climate of recrimination will lead in Bahrain, base to the US Fifth Fleet. “The worst scenario is that the crackdown by the authorities will increase and the violent reaction to this crackdown will also increase,” said Sheikh Ali Salman, a Shia cleric and head of the main opposition Al Wefaq group.

In government circles, responsibility for security flare-ups is placed squarely with the opposition. Information Minister Sameera Rajab said of Al Wefaq: “We don’t trust them. They have to work hard to get the trust back.”

The strategically vital island has been hit by unrest since large pro-democracy protests in early 2011, becoming a frontline in a region-wide tussle for influence between Iran and Arab states such as Saudi Arabia.

The mass disturbances were put down, yet demonstrators drawn mainly from Bahrain’s big Shia community have continued small protests almost daily, demanding the Sunni ruling family create a constitutional monarchy. A resumption of the big protests of early 2011 appears unlikely, with Bahrainis apparently weary of political crisis.

Yet hopes for a breakthrough now seem feeble. Adel Al Asomi, a member of parliament who is critical of Shia opposition groups, said: “Bahrain is a small country that cannot take more. I hope there is a solution, but until now there are no indications that there can be any solution soon.”

Hardliners in both camps, the Saudi-backed ruling family and the mainly Shia opposition, are gaining ground, complicating efforts to end the cycle of protest and clampdown.

A year ago hopes for a breakthrough rose when Crown Prince Salman, seen by some opposition figures as a more moderate figure within the Al Khalifa ruling family, called for a renewal of political talks abandoned in 2011. While the two sides remained apart on many big issues, the talks began and some sort of deal appeared possible.

Then, on July 17, a car bomb exploded in a car park outside the Sheikh Isa bin Salman Sunni mosque in Riffa, an area where many members of the ruling family and armed forces live. There were no casualties. But the blast undermined the Crown Prince’s efforts to push political and economic reforms, instead strengthening hawks inside the Al Khalifa family who see protests as a threat.

Days after the bombing, parliament held an extraordinary session and agreed to strip of the nationality of anyone who commits, or calls for, “terrorist crimes”, while the king decreed additional tough new penalties for such offences.

Deal or no deal

When a senior Wefaq official and former lawmaker, Khalil Al Marzouq, was arrested in September and put on trial for inciting terrorism, the opposition pulled out of the talks. The arrest of Marzouq, followed by the charging of Sheikh Salman with insulting the interior ministry and “spreading lies” capable of jeopardising national security, marked a turning point in government rhetoric towards Wefaq.

However, a number of insiders still speculate that a deal may be possible. The specifics of such an agreement remain unclear. In one scenario suggested by analyst Coline Schep from Control Risks,

the government could attempt to offer Wefaq junior ministerial posts or changes to electoral districts, which the opposition says under represent Shias. In return, it might ask Wefaq to end its boycott of parliamentary elections, started in 2011 and halt street violence.

A former US official said he believed Bahrain’s rulers were ready to offer the opposition a deal. “The opposition can’t get their act together. They’ve had chances that they failed to seize,” said the former official.—Reuters