THE US, together with a ‘coalition of the willing’, appears on the verge of launching air strikes against the military assets of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad.

The declared purpose is to punish Assad’s alleged use of chemical weapons (CW), deter their future use and degrade the Syrian army’s CW stocks and, most likely, also its conventional military capabilities. Such strikes, especially if undertaken without world support, will be a major strategic mistake.

Under the UN Charter, the use of force is allowed only in self-defence or, collectively, when authorised by the UN Security Council. Neither of these two preconditions are present in the Syrian situation to justify military strikes by the US or its allies.

To be sure, the use of chemical weapons is a serious violation of international law and can be considered a “crime against humanity and a war crime”. Neither the 1925 Geneva Convention, prohibiting the use of chemical weapons, nor the Chemical Weapons Convention, authorises the unilateral use of force to punish or deter the use of chemical weapons or to degrade the CW stocks of the perpetrator or his other military assets. Even where CW use is established, the authority to sanction penalties rests with the UN Security Council.

So far, US intelligence’s evidence of the alleged use of CW by Assad’s forces, denied by Damascus, has not been provided to the international community or the Security Council. Unless such verification conclusively proves the charge, the Security Council is unlikely to authorise penalties.

In any case, following the misuse by Western powers of Security Council resolutions on Libya to conduct expanded air strikes, Russia is unlikely to agree to any resolution that could be construed to justify the use of force against Syria. Without such Council authorisation, any unilateral use of force will be illegal, various arguments to the contrary notwithstanding.

The proposed air strikes are being triggered by President Obama’s past declarations that the use of chemical weapons by Syria would oblige the US to retaliate militarily.

In fact, this arbitrary ‘red line’ was designed to deflect earlier calls for US military support to the opposition forces. All the good reasons that have held back US intervention are still applicable. US military action is being contemplated now mainly to preserve President Obama’s ‘credibility’. This is a tenuous political rationale to commit an anticipated strategic blunder. The Russian foreign minister has argued that CW use may well have been stage-managed by the opposition to trigger US military strikes.

The reported ‘deal’ for the planned attacks, proposed by the US to Russia and other permanent members of the Security Council, displays both naiveté and cynicism. Evidently, the air strikes would target Assad’s military assets but not seek ‘regime change’.

If these strikes are limited in scope and duration, they will fail to serve the opposition’s objective of equalising the military power of the warring forces in Syria. If, however, the strikes are significant, extending to the imposition of a ‘no fly zone’ and the elimination of Syria’s air force and air defence systems, the US will be fully engaged in the Syrian conflict to change the power balance and facilitate Assad’s military defeat.

If the US and a ‘coalition of the willing’ do succeed in enhancing the opposition’s chances against Assad’s forces, the most likely beneficiaries will be Al Qaeda-affiliated factions within the opposition, evidently the most effective among those fighting the regime.

In any event, US air strikes, whether limited or extensive, will provoke a strong response from Assad’s allies. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, has already warned that the US will meet the same consequences as in Iraq and Afghanistan. While Western support to the opposition will be limited to air strikes, and perhaps enlarged weapons supplies, Iran will be able to justify significant and overt support to Assad’s forces. Such support will be ‘on the ground’ and thus more meaningful than air strikes.

If the balance on the battlefield tilts further in favour of Damascus, despite the air strikes, or if military engagement results in American and European casualties, the US and its allies will come under internal pressure to widen their involvement. America could be sucked into this conflict.

Even if this is avoided, external intervention will serve to escalate the intensity and scope of the conflict. The Assad regime will launch larger attacks on opposition strongholds with even less regard for civilian casualties. Even after Western air strikes, its arsenal, refurbished by its allies, will not lack weapons to match the opposition’s capabilities.

The fragile prospects of a political solution in Syria, under the so-called Geneva 2 process, will be extinguished. Both Assad and the opposition will have lesser incentives to come to the negotiating table. Russia will not be able to counsel compromise to Assad. Syria’s division into warring regions and cities is likely to become permanent.

Inevitably, Syria’s neighbours will feel the blowback. From Lebanon, Hezbollah would be more open in supporting Assad while some of the Sunni groups aid the opposition. The coalition in Beirut may collapse and Lebanon become engulfed in another civil war.

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s vocal support for the Syrian opposition has already angered secular Turks and exacerbated the alienation of Turkey’s Kurds and Alawites. Turkey’s policy of ‘peace with all neighbours’ is falling apart.

Iran’s more vigorous support for Assad could extinguish the hope aroused by President Hassan Rouhani’s election for a negotiated solution to the nuclear issue. The contest for regional influence between Turkey and the Gulf states versus Iran, Iraq and Syria will intensify as will the Sunni-Shia divide within the Muslim world.

Hopefully, the US and its allies will accept the UN secretary general’s appeal “to give peace a chance”. The process of UN inspections and the requirement, under international law, for a UN Security Council mandate for military action, provide a safety valve that must be availed of to prevent another lit match thrown into the West Asian powder keg.

The writer is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.

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Comments are closed.

Comments (8)

Khanm
September 1, 2013 11:23 am

With due respect…. The United Nations is redundant… Moral rearmament united the nations together…It the Armament disintegrating the nations apart… Either nationally or internationally to set up as a standard of public morality a notion which can neither be defined nor conceived is to open the door to every kind of tyranny. Might has become the right..

Shankar
September 1, 2013 11:44 am

It will be totally imprudent on the part of US to get involved in this civil war! It should be the sole responsibility of the Muslim countries to negotiate a settlement in Syria. Given the kind of confusion and instability the Arab Spring has brought about, the dividing line between right and wrong is highly blurred. This should be handled only by people who have very intimate knowledge about the people and the conflict, not by foreingners who will be accused of nurturing vested interests! I hope US pays heed to Mr. Munir's sound advice! Sure, it is heart wrenching to hear about civilian casualitis in Syria but there is nothing a completely didvided world can do to help!

SM
September 1, 2013 2:40 pm

Obama's recourse to the Congress might be an attempt to not to get engaged in this conflict directly in the wake of major western countries distancing themselves from this war. At this time, the Congress could vote against such an action - pleading that they should abstain from a unilateral campaign. A Face-saving technique. However, if US goes ahead and attacks Syrian it would severely impact the regional stability and this war could very likely reach to Israelis' homes - America's "beloved" strategic partner and ally. Let's see whether this time US & Israel would go ahead without worrying about the lack of support from their westerns partners.

AbbasToronto
September 1, 2013 2:53 pm

[3:54] They (infidels) planned, and Allah also planned, and the best of planners is Allah.

T.Khan
September 1, 2013 4:11 pm

So, your message is that let Bashar al Assad use the chemical weapons no matter how many children and adults are killed by him ? Basically, it will encourage any rogue regime to use CW's, knowing that no retaliatry action will be taken for such a crime. You also seem to believe in what the Russian Foreign Minister has said. Isn't this a joke ? Incidentally, what would have been your arguments if you were in the current government of Nawaz Sharif so subservient to Saudi Arabia?

Talat Ali
September 1, 2013 4:47 pm

All this it seems is being done to draw Iran out and hit it with most of Europe behind US and being led by Israel to whom we would own a World War 111. Smart plan.

T.Khan
September 1, 2013 5:51 pm

So, your message is that let Bashar al Assad use the chemical weapons no matter how many children and adults are killed by him ? Basically, it will encourage any rogue regime to use CW's, knowing that no retaliatry action will be taken for such a crime. You also seem to believe in what the Russian Foreign Minister has said. Isn't this a joke ? Incidentally, what would have been your arguments if you were in the current government of Nawaz Sharif so subservient to Saudi Arabia?

DB
September 1, 2013 11:59 pm

As heinous as the atrocities are in Syria, the players in this situation are muddled. The USA is supposed to be fighting Al Qaeda, YET the SFA is comprised of AQ fighters. So which is it? We fight AQ or we support AQ? KSA is funding the SFA, and has stated in the press that they support US intervention "if that is what the Syrian people want". If KSA has a dog in this fight, why don't they initiate an attack against Assad? Syria is in their backyard after all. The USA military are KSA's hired mercenaries? And what is the geo-political ending point to this entire cluster of madness? Is it really Syria, or is it Iran?

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