For all the success Pakistan have had in the five-day game over the past three years, their record in the shorter formats remains below par. But this decline – or is it stagnation? – has been a long time coming.

After the morass of the early years of this century, Pakistan under Inzamam-ul-Haq became a solid, if-unspectacular, 50-over team. Between the 2003 and 2007 World Cups, Pakistan won seven and lost five of the bilateral series against major sides (excluding Bangladesh, Zimbabwe and the associate nations). In the aftermath of the 2007 World Cup, though, without Bob Woolmer and Inzamam gone, Pakistan went through its worst run in recent ODI history. From then, until – and including – the fateful tour of England in 2010, Pakistan lost in eight of the 10 bilateral series they played against the major nations. It was an almighty fall from a not-too-high pedestal; a fall that was often masked by wins in the less competitive matches.

Since then, Pakistan have progressed in all formats under Misbah-ul-Haq, Shahid Afridi and Waqar Younis: from that England tour, Pakistan have won five of the 10 bilateral series played against the major teams. While this resurgence might not be as stark as that in the five-day game, it is an improvement nonetheless. The frustration for most Pakistan fans, though, is that the team always looks one or two changes away from being a genuinely good side. But those “one or two changes” evolve; as one change is made for the better, one seems to be made for the worse.

Realistically, there should only be doom and gloom for Pakistan in the Champions Trophy but as their tournament record shows, they can be successful despite all evidence to the contrary.

How does this relate to the Champions Trophy, though, we just don’t know. Because for all the trends that Pakistan have had in their recent history in the shorter formats, one stands out above all else: Pakistan are the only team to have reached the semi-finals of each of the last six ICC events. Considering, as stated before, Pakistan have lost more than they’ve won in bilateral series since 2007, this is a remarkable achievement. Pakistan have also won two of the other four multi-nation tournaments they’ve played during this time period. In short, Pakistan have a developed an uncanny ability to over-achieve in tournaments. It is also astonishing considering the instability Pakistan have had; they’ve had four different captains and four different head coaches during these six tournaments.

So what explains this discrepancy then? Perhaps in the bilateral matches, Pakistan’s mediocre batting lineup is exposed repeatedly to international bowlers who grab on to their weaknesses and beat them to a pulp (Mohammad Hafeez versus Dale Steyn being the most obvious and recent example); perhaps Pakistan struggle to regain the momentum in a series after their first loss; perhaps their bowlers become less effective as the series go on and the opposition batsmen suss them out. Everyone has their own theories regarding these failings – one does not know what the reasons for this are and it would seem that the team management does not either.

The more important question to ask, in relation to the Champions Trophy, is why then does the team over-achieve in the multi-nation format? Perhaps it is because Pakistan don’t have to face the same opposition after a loss. Our lot have never been the models of consistency in the vein of Ricky Ponting’s Australian teams. In 1992, Pakistan won only one of their first five games before the resurgence; the tiger was cornered due to his own failures. In 1999, after a blistering start, Pakistan lost four of its final six games. And these two, lest we forget, are our two greatest tournament sides ever.

Even during this current phase, Pakistan have not been a consistent beast. In each of the six ICC tournaments mentioned, Pakistan had lost at least once prior to the semi-final. And these losses made the team better, as they bounced back hungrier, and rectified the mistakes that led to those losses. The most famous example of this, of course, is Younis Khan equating T20 cricket to professional wrestling after the loss to England in the 2009 World T20 – an equivalence that resonates more today than it did then. Pakistan’s success in these tournaments has been based around their bowlers – a lot who thrive against players who aren’t used to facing them. In each of these six tournaments Pakistan have had at least one bowler in the top four wicket-takers of the tournament. By comparison, in only three of the six tournaments have they had a batsman in the top-four run scorers.

Of course, concerns have been raised after Pakistan’s performances in Scotland and Ireland in the warm-ups. But fretting over them is pointless – warm-ups, especially in the case of Pakistan, are just that. The results don’t matter as long as the players are getting used to the conditions and the combination of the first XI. After all, Pakistan lost both its warm-ups the last time they ventured to England for an ICC event, which was the World T20 in 2009. I doubt many Pakistani fans cared after the event what the results of those warm-ups were. But, and this is the point of such matches, Pakistan have found some positives going into the series: the bowling of Asad Ali and the batting of the lower middle order (particularly Kamran Akmal) can be classified under the pros. Everything else, for now, would be under the cons.

So there is cause for cautious optimism in the lead-up to the tournament in England and Wales. Cautious because the team is just not that good. Devoid of the likes of Salman Butt, Mohammad Yousuf, Afridi and Umar Gul (all of whom have been among the top four run scorers or wicket takers mentioned above), for a variety of reasons, Pakistan have an unbalanced and inexperienced squad. The captain has never toured England; none of the other batsmen selected have ever scored a hundred there, nor average above 30. So, realistically, there should only be doom and gloom but as their tournament record shows, Pakistan can be successful despite all evidence to the contrary.

Hoping against reason is an essential part of being a Pakistan or sports fan. So come June the 7th and that is what we shall do.