The Herald


Q. How is the United States viewing the security of Pakistan’s nuclear installations? Do the Bush administration, the Congress, and the State Department believe that there is a possibility of Taliban or other Islamic extremists taking over the country’s nuclear weapons?

A. Those who know Pakistan well do not believe that Islamic extremists will take over the government of Pakistan or installations in its nuclear production complex. A greater worry is the “insider” threat -- that extremist groups have managed to place sympathisers within the (nuclear) production complex, or in military units that are in close proximity to nuclear forces.

Q. How have the various segments of foreign policy establishment in the United States reacted to the latest statements by Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan on the centrifuges’ transfer?

A. Most experts in the United States doubt that Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan was acting on his own initiative in all cases. Some of what he says may be true, and some may well be untrue. It is also possible that some transactions began with official authorisation and then evolved into freelance ones. Khan certainly profited from his business dealings. He also seems to have been motivated in some cases by a sense of Islamic solidarity and anti-Americanism. It is probably unwise to generalise about his activities, other than to say that he did great damage by making it easier for states to make nuclear weapons. Pakistan’s reputation has been badly sullied.

Q. Is the US satisfied by the security, control and regulatory arrangements that Pakistan has put in place for its nuclear facilities and weapons?

A. Most experts in the United States agree that Pakistan has belatedly taken important steps to improve nuclear security. But every country can always do better. Will there be further instances of Pakistani proliferation? With respect to officially sanctioned proliferation, I suppose the answer depends on which country asks Pakistan for help. As for proliferation through “rogue” scientists from inside the nuclear weapons complex, I do not believe that there will be another Abdul Qadeer Khan, although lesser abuses are still possible.

Q. There is a general belief that aid to Pakistan will stop flowing as soon as either the ‘war on terror’ is over…

A. It is unreasonable to expect that significant aid amounts from the United States in the future will be provided unconditionally. The good news is that, despite all the problems between Pakistan and the United States, there is bipartisan support in the (US) Congress to help Pakistan to become a more secure state that feeds and educates its citizens, enjoys economic growth, and is not troubled by internal and foreign security threats. The future of Pakistan is important for the future of the entire region. If Pakistani governments are serious about dealing with internal problems, they can expect outside help.

Q. Do you think pressure on Pakistan on nuclear proliferation as well as the security of its nuclear assets will increase if there is Democrat president?

A.Different administrations emphasise different themes, and some aspects of the US policy might change. But the challenges and opportunities in relations between the United States and Pakistan outlast changes in administrations. The new US administration – be it Democratic or Republican -- will have to deal with a deteriorating situation in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) and in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Pakistani governments that have difficulty delivering on their promises. - Conducted Via email by Muhammad Badar Alam


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