
Q. In
retrospect, how does the Republican Party view the support extended to General
Pervez Musharraf by the current administration?
A.
There are important Republican voices (who don't speak for the party officially)
who have recently come out in criticism of Bush’s support of Musharraf, notably
the conservative columnist Bob Novak, who is regarded as close to Vice President
Dick Cheney. Several centrist Republican senators have long been critical of
Musharraf for many reasons. However, it is important that Musharraf be treated
with respect and that he not be disgraced. Doing so would be counter-productive,
and return Pakistan to a cycle of revenge and counter revenge.
Q. Is
there an effort on the part of the current administration to shift its focus
away from Musharraf and develop a working relationship with the new government?
A.
My guess is that the administration is divided. Certainly Bush had a place for
Musharraf in his heart, (but) many professionals in the administration have long
realised that while Musharraf talked a good game and was persuasive, actions did
not follow, especially regarding looking the other way when it came to Taliban
operations in Pakistan, and Taliban-Al Qaeda links.
Q. Is
there any apparent difference between the way the Pentagon and the White House
are viewing Pakistan in light of the fact that there is not just a new elected
government in power but also a new Chief of Army Staff?
A.
If there is a difference they have concealed it publicly, but there's no doubt
that the US military is incensed with Pakistan. They have to face the Taliban
daily in Afghanistan, and as many responsible journalists and foreign observers
have written, the tracks back to Pakistan were evident years ago.
Q. Can
significant changes be expected in the US-Pakistan relations after the
presidential elections of 2008 with regard to ‘war on terrorism’, militancy in
Waziristan and aid to Pakistan?
A.
First, the term ‘war on terrorism’ is likely to disappear if Obama Barack is
elected. It never was the appropriate phrase. McCain might continue it but the
US generals who are planning and fighting the war in Afghanistan are far more
subtle. There's a lot of impatience with Pakistan but even Obama has recently
acknowledged that there may be limits to what Pakistan can actually do. I know
of no one who would like to abandon Pakistan. This is a marriage, and we are
going to have to learn to live with each other for the duration. What is new,
and important, is the recognition that Pakistan itself could be an even greater
problem in years to come because of economic stagnation, political incoherence,
and a divide over whether the "main enemy" is India or radical Islam or Pakistan
itself. There's great support for strengthening Pakistan civil society, the
economy, and so forth.
Q.
Considering that every year there is an increase in the militant activity in
Afghanistan at the onset of summer, the US concern about the insurgency seems
more acute this year…
A.
It has been at an acute level for several years now. Certainly the European
states fighting in Afghanistan share this concern—this has become the biggest
NATO issue now, as well as a matter that affects our relationship with Pakistan.
Q. There
is also a feeling that Washington's tone has become harsher because it does not
have the sort of faith in the new dispensation as it did in Musharraf…
A.
There's division here as to whether the new government is for some reason
unwilling to move against the extremists, or, more likely, unable. The former
view holds that Pakistan's military is pursuing one strategy, the civilians
would like to pursue another, but can't. I reserve judgment, but all the
explanations are troubling.
Q. How
will Washington react to the increasing militancy in Pakistan's tribal region,
when there is a new White House administration? Can an increase in air strikes
be expected?
A.
The US will have to continue to balance its calculations of alienating Pakistan
versus doing something about groups that operate in Pakistan but hurt the effort
in Afghanistan (and let me add that the problem in Afghanistan is not due
entirely, or even largely, to what comes out of Pakistan). However, first, if
there is a major terrorist incident that can be traced back to
Pakistani-supported groups then there will be no restraint. Second, people may
start thinking of very different strategies: if we have to stay in Afghanistan
over the long term, then perhaps Iran might provide the means by which our
forces can be supplied, rather than Pakistan. Right now the US is dependent on
Karachi, but what if there were a limited US-Iran accommodation? Stranger things
have happened.
Q. How
have the administration and the foreign policy circles viewed the recent
statements of Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan and can they lead to additional pressure on
Pakistan?
A.
My view is that he was right when he said that the Pakistan bomb affected
India's calculations in recent crises. However, he has done tremendous damage to
Pakistan's reputation as a stable and reliable state, and it is in Pakistan's
own interest to help the world find out exactly what was transferred to several
states in the Middle East and perhaps North Korea. This stands in the way of
Pakistan being treated like India in terms of a possible nuclear "deal".
Q. Is
there any chance that the US may reduce the aid package to Pakistan in the near
future? If so, what factors will be behind such a decision?
A.
It certainly will be made conditional, and theoretically some kinds of
assistance could increase. Senator Biden is introducing legislation to this
effect which will provide a new, and more honest, basis for US-Pakistan
relations. However, Pakistan does not want to be aid dependent forever. My fear
is that it may have missed too many opportunities to catch up.
Q.
How realistic are the chances of the Biden proposed "democracy dividend"
materialising?
A.
right now it has received a lot of support in the Senate from both parties. No
matter who wins the election I believe it will go through, and in the end will
be good for the US and Pakistan. - Conducted Via
email by Muhammad Badar Alam |