The European Union ended 2004 with a historic decision to open its doors to Turkey, paving the way for the transformation of the current exclusively Christian club of 25 nations into a multi-religious bloc stretching to the frontiers of Iraq and Syria. Relations with Turkey are also set to dominate 2005 as EU governments prepare for the opening of membership negotiations with Ankara on October 3. The coming year will also see efforts to secure ratification of a new EU constitution as well as a continued drive to establish a European defence identity on a par with the US-led NATO alliance.
Continuing its eastward expansion, the EU meanwhile will also work on ensuring that Romania and Bulgaria can join the Union in 2007. Negotiations for Croatia's entry will start in April 2005, provided Zagreb cooperates with the United Nations war crimes tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. The entry of the three countries is expected to be followed by closer contacts with other Balkan states which are waiting in the wings to join the rapidly expanding EU.
Landmark changes in western Europe are likely to go hand in hand with equally significant events in Russia and other countries in the EU's eastern neighbourhood. For most of 2004, Moscow continued to struggle with ethnic unrest in Chechnya, culminating in September in the bloody school siege in the town of Beslan which left over 300 children and adults dead. Meanwhile, an "orange revolution" in Ukraine, triggered by supporters of the pro-Western politician Viktor Yuschenko, forced the authorities to agree to a re-run of the second round of presidential elections.
Relations between the EU and Russia hit a new low in 2004. Already wary of the Union's growing political and economic clout, Russian President Vladimir Putin made no secret of his anger at Europe's increased assertiveness in Ukraine, accusing the 25 nation bloc of meddling in Kiev's internal affairs. Putin's fury at EU action was most evident at an EU-Russia summit in The Hague in November in which he warned that the EU had "no moral right to push a major European state into mass mayhem". The EU said bluntly that the presidential poll results, leading to the victory of the Russian-backed candidate Viktor Yanukovich "did not meet the international standards" and so were unacceptable.
A more confident and assertive EU also continued to have its share of diplomatic skirmishes with the US, especially as regards policy towards Iraq and the Middle East. Having all but publicly declared their preference for the candidacy of Democratic presidential contender John Kerry - seen in Europe as a multilateralist who would listen to advice from Europe -
EU leaders had to quickly shift gear when George W. Bush was re-elected president. French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who led European opposition to the Iraq war, continued, however, to resist greater EU involvement in Iraq, either through the Nato deployment of European soldiers or stepped-up participation in reconstructing the country.
Eager to mend fences with the EU, President Bush is expected to visit Europe in February. Visits are planned to Nato headquarters in Brussels, the European Commission as well as to France and Germany. While the visit is expected to paper over some cracks in transatlantic relations, EU policymakers remain convinced that ties with the US will remain strained as Europe continues to turn its ambitions of being a global player into reality.
Europe's increasing visibility on the international stage is at least partly the result of its epic transformation and expansion. The once small club of six countries set up almost half a century ago to bring reconciliation and peace to a war-ravaged continent grew in size to 25 countries on May 1, 2004 when eight former communist nations of eastern Europe - the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia - as well as Cyprus and Malta joined the Union.
Europe's historic reunification symbolized the historic, formal end of the Cold War and - as underlined by Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern - reflected the "triumph of determination and perseverance over the legacy of history". But the Irish premier also warned that a union of 25 countries required changed rules and regulations, including the conclusion of a new constitution aimed at streamlining decision-making in the expanded EU.
Euphoria over EU enlargement was also tempered by fears among "old" Europeans over a risk of increased east-west immigration flows. The British media exploited suggestions that west Europe would be flooded by thousands of poorer eastern Europeans seeking jobs and a better life despite wiser voices insisting that such a sudden surge of immigrants was unlikely. Meanwhile, Germany's Schroeder voiced concern about unfair tax and business competition from the new eastern EU members.
While welcoming enlargement, EU leaders were engaged in an uphill struggle to finalize a new constitution aimed at streamlining decision-making in the expanded EU. Negotiations on the treaty broke down in acrimony in December 2003 after Spain and Poland refused any downgrading of their voting rights.
But following his election in March, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero promised to take a more flexible position on voting rights than his predecessor Jose Maria Aznar. As Poland also shifted its stance, EU leaders meeting in Brussels in June were finally able to clinch their new constitution. The treaty was duly signed in Rome on November 29, 2004, at a grandiose ceremony in Rome's Capitoline Hill, site of the 1957 signature of the bloc's original founding treaty.
However, the constitution must now be ratified by national governments, either through parliamentary approval or in national referendums. The first of these public consultations will take place in Spain next February, followed by Portugal in April, the Netherlands in March or April and the French, possibly in May.
The year was also marked by a hard battle to finalize a new European Commission line-up, headed by Portugal's former prime minister Jose Manuel Barroso. Selected to head the Commission by EU leaders after more high-profile candidates such as Belgian Premier Guy Verhofstadt dropped out of the race, Barroso had no problems winning over the newly-elected European Parliament. But many of his 24 commissioners ran foul of the EU assembly.
The parliament's left and centre-left lawmakers were especially outraged when Italy's ultra-orthodox politician Rocco Buttiglione described homosexuality as a sin. Fearing that his cabinet would not secure the parliamentary green light, Barroso delayed the assembly vote while seeking a replacement for Buttiglione. Barroso finally took over at the Commission on November 22, three weeks later than scheduled, with Italy's former foreign minister Franco Frattini in his team instead of Buttiglione.
While EU politics were often in turmoil, the bloc made important strides in the security sector as defence ministers agreed the EU's first rapid reaction battlegroups to enforce United Nations peace missions would be ready for action in 2005. The EU also took over Nato's peacekeeping mission in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Both moves were seen as crucial in the EU's long-held dream of setting up an independent non-Nato defence identity to reinforce its emerging global role.
The EU's decade-long drive to develop its military muscle to back up its diplomatic weight took visible form as 7,000 peacekeepers in Bosnia and Herzegovina replaced their Nato shoulder tags with the EU's blue and gold colours. The mission, which started on Dec 2, marks the 25-nation bloc's largest and most complex operation to date.
The military operation is seen as a crucial test of the military capabilities of EU nations, as well as their ability to act in unison, as the EU seeks to develop its own coherent military force independent of Nato.
The Bosnia mission followed two similar EU peacekeeping operations last year: in Macedonia, where some 1,000 EU troops were involved, and a short-term operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which involved more than 1,500 EU troops. Meanwhile, in August, the EU's five-nation Eurocorps, which is made up of troops from Germany, France, Spain, Belgium and Luxembourg, took over from Canada as the lead contingent in the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan.
Events in Russia, meanwhile, continued to be mired in confusion. Defying an 11th-hour US legal order barring the sale, the Russian government sold off Yukos' flagship Siberian oil-pumping arm, Yuganskneftegaz, for 9.35 billion dollars to the previously unknown Baikal Finance Group. The disposal represented a death blow for Yukos, whose ambitious billionaire founder Mikhail Khodorkovsky had built it into Russia's best-run company before he was arrested to face trial on fraud and tax evasion charges in October 2003.
Lawyers for the main Yukos shareholders, who include Khodorkovsky, branded the auction as expropriation disguised as the collection of multi-billion-dollar tax demands. The unprecedented destruction of Russia's most successful firm is seen in Moscow as the brainchild of the Kremlin, where a powerful group of former KGB officers hold sway in President Putin's court. With geopolitical rivalry growing between the West and Russia, shown by the bitter row over disputed presidential elections in Ukraine, regaining control of vital oil resources that were privatized in the 1990s has become a national security priority in Russia, analysts said.
With Putin in clearly autocratic rather than democratic mood, Russia's relations with the EU look set to remain on tricky ground in 2005. The EU has said that it wants to be on good terms with its largest eastern neighbour. But many in the 25 nation bloc - especially Moscow's former eastern European allies - are in no mood to be too accommodating towards Moscow. As a result, tense transatlantic relations could be mirrored in 2005 by equally strained relations between Europe and Russia.
The European Union ended 2004 with a historic decision to open its doors to Turkey, paving the way for the transformation of the current exclusively Christian club of 25 nations into a multi-religious bloc stretching to the frontiers of Iraq and Syria. Relations with Turkey are also set to dominate 2005 as EU governments prepare for the opening of membership negotiations with Ankara on October 3. The coming year will also see efforts to secure ratification of a new EU constitution as well as a continued drive to establish a European defence identity on a par with the US-led NATO alliance.
