For the war-torn and progress-starved country, 2004 was really an epoch-making year. It began with the drafting of a more or less moderate constitution, followed by the presidential election and ended with the inauguration of Hamid Karzai as the first elected president of the country. The process itself was a milestone since the Afghan people exercised their sovereign right for the first time in their 5000-year history.
The election turnout was surprisingly high, i.e., about 80 per cent, despite threats from the Taliban and Al Qaeda. In the context of the conditions prevailing three years back, this is being hailed as a miracle and a feather in the American cap. Nevertheless, the real test of the American backed Karzai administration lies ahead.
Reconstruction, rehabilitation and liberalization have been the buzzwords of the Afghan transition. But these goals seem to remain a dream in the absence of a stable peace and a broad-based national reconciliation. Karzai's position in the Tajik and Uzbek dominated North and the Taliban and Al Qaeda infested South remains precarious. Though a renewed confidence is evident in his speech and action particularly in his attempts to gain support of some prominent Tajik chiefs and his declared amnesty for the 'good Taliban', the Afghan president is still far from having the basic requirements for an independent take-off. At present the presence of approximately 27,000 US and NATO troops seem to be the sole guarantors of security in many regions.
And yet security is becoming an increasingly scarce item. While the fledgling Afghan National Army and the national police are still in the process of training and developing, the private militias and their formidable warlords reign supreme in many provinces. Taking advantage of their initial support to the US-led forces against the Taliban, these warlords often blackmail the government in order to retain their militias as well as some key posts in the administration. On the other hand, the hunt for the remnants of the Taliban and Al Qaeda is still going on, particularly along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. In fact the insurgents are quite active in the south and southeast, especially following Mullah Umar's Eid message vowing to regain control of the country.
The reconstruction and rehabilitation work also has been badly hampered by the increased killings and kidnappings particularly of the aid and reconstruction workers. Targeting of foreigners has not only increased in incidence but also expanded in the radius of activity. For instance, broad daylight abductions in Kabul may signify escalation of the insurgency along Iraqi lines. Moreover, Karzai's vow to "convert gunmen into productive citizens" is also only partially materializing.
While about half of the estimated 8,000 Afghan child soldiers have been demobilized and rehabilitated through Unicef-funded educational programmes and vocational training, another programme targeted at 100,000 adult militia fighters has been rather disappointing.
One cause of worsening security conditions is the skyrocketing opium production. With the poppies blooming all over the country opium production is back to pre-Taliban levels accounting for almost all the heroin and morphine sold across Europe. This year the narco-trade earned $2.8 billion, which is equivalent to about 60 per cent of Afghanistan's GDP. Though President Karzai has declared a "jihad against narcotics" the country is rapidly becoming a narco-state with ever-growing poppy cultivation and the drug money directly being channelled to narco-terrorism. Many militias that helped overthrow of Taliban are allegedly involved in this trade and Karzai risks losing their support if he acts too harshly.
The government is also facing a problem in liberalizing a highly conservative society. With the cinemas open, the cable TV networks on and the ancient statues back in the museums, the administration has invited wrath of some religious and judicial circles. However, the more important measures like those aimed at gender sensitivity and women empowerment are yet to bear fruit. Until the final formulation of the cabinet and the next year's parliamentary elections it is difficult to tell how much liberal policies could be adopted and implemented successfully.
If Afghanistan is thought of as being a partial success story, Central Asia is just the opposite. Nevertheless, the complex nature of changes unfolding in the five Muslim republics furnishes another interesting case for the study of transition. In fact, according to observers, the whole post-Soviet territory is a huge laboratory where various economic, social, political, cultural and civilizational patterns are being tested since 1991. Though the imported ideals of liberal democracy and market economy are almost universally being cherished, the Central Asian leadership seems to have its own notions regarding these ideals. Hence the long transitional phase is becoming eventless and even directionless as compared to other republics.
The region is the last and perhaps the strongest bastion of the post-Soviet dictatorship where the concepts of individual freedom and civil liberties are virtually non-existent. All the republics have been granted constitutions and laws that authorize the respective presidents with tremendous state powers while the elected parliaments are rather rubber-stamps.
In 2004 parliamentary elections were held in three of the republics, namely, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, while the Kyrgyz and the Tajik people will have their elections this year.
In Kazakhstan there are speculations regarding President Nazarbayev's plans to abolish the presidential elections through a constitutional amendment that will empower the loyalist parliament to choose the president in future. In this context September's parliamentary election became quite crucial but to the satisfaction of Mr Nazarbayev, the single seat won by the opposition leader Sarsenbayev was declined by the latter as a protest against alleged electoral irregularities.
The recent Uzbek parliamentary elections also show similar trends while President Karimov's administration is busier in crushing all opposition on the pretext of terrorism and anti-state activities. In the absence of truly independent candidates it was futile to expect truly competitive elections. The Uzbek opposition had already been complaining about the "erosion of Uzbekistan's social contract" in an atmosphere of intimidation akin to state- terrorism.
But no story of high-handedness would be complete without mention of the great 'Turkmenbashi' Saparmurat Niyazov of Turkmenistan who himself confirmed and comfortable in his seat of president for life, held the parliamentary election in December. The state-controlled polls in which all the candidates belonged to the president's "Democratic Party" failed to attract voters as many polling stations were reportedly seen empty.
The elections have become a more futile exercise since the constitutional amendment of 2003 that stripped off the parliament's powers to make constitutional changes. In effect the role of legislation has been shifted to the 'Peoples'Council' a hand-picked assembly of top officials and elders, headed by the president himself and used to legitimize all of his decisions. Despite this humiliation, the parliamentary candidates excelled each other in praising Niyazov's policies and promoting his sacred book the Rukhnuma, a collection of moral and spiritual guidelines for the citizens. Further, the foreign observers were not allowed as the "fairness" of the polls was ensured by the presence of 200 observers from the state-controlled National Institute of Democracy and Human Rights.
It's even more interesting to note that in the oil-rich Turkmenistan, the extent of state-interference goes down to the particulars of prayers. Niazov's masterpiece Rukhnuma has been imposed as a holy book on the Turkmen. It covers more than 50 per cent of the school and college syllabus, and is kept at the entrance of the mosques for the believers to touch it as a sacred object every time they enter. Those who resist face the prospects of persecution including imprisonment on vague charges like the former Chief Mufti Nasrullah Ibne Ibadullah who was sentenced for 22years. This is not surprising as in 2003 some parliamentarians even declared the president to be somewhat equivalent to a prophet.
So in a state-controlled society, a state-controlled people are being groomed to become highly obedient and conformist end products.
The transition to democracy seems to be stuck in the middle while the germs of authoritarianism are spreading. Kyrgyzstan, once a bastion of democratic reform in Central Asia under President Akaev, is rapidly moving towards autocracy. Harassment, dismissal from jobs, imprisonment on false cases against opposition are being reported. Again, like Uzbekistan, the anti-terrorist drive has gone to the extent of molesting common people and violating civil liberties.
Similarly in Tajikistan, the country that is still recovering from a bloody civil war, the opposition parties particularly the IRP, the region's only legal religious party, is reportedly facing state harassment after a six year honeymoon with the government of President Rakhmanov. Ironically, it was after the IRP leader Abdullah Nuri's support for a constitutional amendment in June, which allows Rakhmanov to seek presidency until 2020, the president has become more impatient towards opponents.
In the light of the socio-political background of the region, it is understandable that transition would not be short and smooth. But at least there must be a direction positively aimed at the benefit of the people of the region. The poor, suppressed and isolated people who strive for existence while their rulers and a few others make fortunes out of petro-dollars. The recent Ukrainian Revolution has been a source of inspiration for Central Asia's democracy lovers. How much they can derive from it will determine the direction of the transition in future.
For the war-torn and progress-starved country, 2004 was really an epoch-making year. It began with the drafting of a more or less moderate constitution, followed by the presidential election and ended with the inauguration of Hamid Karzai as the first elected president of the country. The process itself was a milestone since the Afghan people exercised their sovereign right for the first time in their 5000-year history.
