The realistic route

Published September 4, 2011

THE drawdown of American and coalition troops in Afghanistan has registered immediate effects on the country’s security and economic fronts.

Not only have property prices come down in Kabul and other cities, targeted killings and violent attacks have also increased.

The deadly attacks seen recently in Wardak and Parwan provinces have exposed the level of authority exerted by the government and have led to growing fears amongst both the Afghan public and the international community that the Taliban are exerting increasing influence.

Pakistan needs to ready itself to confront the consequences of a destabilised neighbour sinking once again into the vortex of civil war. But Pakistan — instead of adopting a proactive approach — appears to have resorted to a wait-and-see policy. With a confused Afghanistan policy and preoccupied with fears of a clandestine India-US collaboration Islamabad appears to have aligned itself politically with countries that oppose the long-term American presence in Afghanistan, and hope that the superpower meets a humiliating defeat.

Pakistan’s current Afghanistan policy is marred by confusion. Nobody today — not least the international community — knows what Pakistan wanted or wants in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Pakistan is also hesitant to deal with a destabilised Afghanistan if the current regime falls and the Taliban take control in Kabul, with Al Qaeda using the country as a safe conduit through which to export terror.

Pakistan’s current approach reflects the popular narrative constructed by pro-establishment right-wing analysts who argue that the US is bogged down in Afghanistan and initiated troop withdrawal without finishing the job.

Pakistan ought to have exploited the US presence in Afghanistan to its own advantage, negotiating long-term political and financial interests. Instead, Islamabad seems to have taken a position which some parts of the world believe is aimed against the US. If this is true, it will constitute a reactionary but disastrous strategy, bound to attract American wrath while further isolating Pakistan in the international community.

Before committing itself to this dangerous road, Pakistan needs to understand the reasons that led the US to enter this region.

Instead of working for peace in Afghanistan, in the last 10 years the US has focused on the construction of huge military complexes, making its intentions for a longer stay abundantly clear.

Afghanistan will not be the first country where America has permanent military bases: Washington maintains such bases in more than 50 other countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the UK, Germany, Norway, Japan and South Korea.

All these countries have had for decades an American presence on their soil for their own political and economic benefit. In appearing to join nations — such as China, Russia and Iran — that oppose the American presence in Afghanistan, Pakistan has forgotten that unlike them Islamabad has historically enjoyed good relations with Washington. Opting for a solo, head-on confrontation with a superpower is not in Pakistan’s long-term interests.

Pakistan needs to acknowledge the fact the Washington will maintain troops in about a dozen of its permanent military bases in Afghanistan beyond 2014. For a long time now, the US has desired permanent military bases in Afghanistan so that it can be used as a central position of influence in the Central Asian Republics’ region, encircle Iran and be within striking reach of China’s approach to the Indian Ocean.

In the 1950s, prior to the establishment of the US military base at Badabir, near Peshawar, Washington approached Afghan rulers to demand military bases in Kandahar and Helmand. Despite being met with refusal, in the early 1960s the US built the international airport at Kandahar which experts say is designed as a military base. It is believed that it was intended as a base that could be used against the USSR.

The events of 9/11 provided the US with the opportunity to fulfil its objective of monitoring the region that hosts four nuclear powers (Russia, China, India and Pakistan), with Iran emerging as the fifth, and simultaneously be at a short distance from the Indian Ocean, which caters to almost 40 per cent of the world’s sea trade.

The construction of American military complexes continues; an additional $39bn has been allocated for the construction of new bases. This will be in addition to those in Kandahar, Shindand, Herat, Mazar-i-Sharif, Bagram and Nangarhar. A billion dollars have also been allocated for the upgradation of the Kandahar and Mazar-i-Sharif airbases, despite a well-developed facility of the same kind at Bagram.

Currently, the US and Afghan governments are in the process of finalising long-term strategic arrangements which may allow the former to stay in Afghanistan beyond 2014.

To give moral and institutional cover to these agreements, many believe President Karzai has worked on convening a traditional grand jirga soon after Ramazan. He is sure to succeed in his effort since the majority of Afghans believe that their country still needs the superpower’s support for developing basic infrastructure etc. The only hurdle so far is curtailing the power of the American forces’ search operations and subordinating them to Afghan law vis-à-vis action against opponents.

In the given circumstances, it is in Pakistan’s interests to dispense with its security-centred mindset. Pakistan should focus on the benefits accruing from a stable and peaceful Afghanistan whether or not the US stays. Islamabad needs to assess the Afghan scenario objectively and see whether it may better be able to work with the current regime, as opposed to the hard-line Taliban-Al Qaeda mix.

It is time for Pakistan to reframe its Afghan polices and treat America’s permanent bases on Afghan soil as a fait accompli. For the wellbeing of its millions, Pakistan needs to function as a professional trader instead of a professional soldier in the region.

Pakistan has the opportunity to exploit its position as a stakeholder in a peaceful Afghanistan, an extended market for its goods.

The writer is the director of news and current affairs at Khyber TV.

hasan.khyber@gmail.com

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