Three years ago, support price of wheat was increased by 46 per cent in one go. Three years down the line, the planners are seized with the bad effects on cropping pattern. - File photo

WITH only a week to go to complete 64 years of independence, Pakistan has yet to develop a holistic agriculture policy.

Two examples make the point of such faulty planning clear. Take the case of wheat. Three years ago, support price of wheat was increased by 46 per cent in one go. Three years down the line, the planners are seized with the bad effects on cropping pattern. Wheat area has grossly eaten into acreage of all pulses, especially masoor.

The pulses issue, created by wheat and worsened by last year’s floods, is now raising the import bill. The federal government was forced to convene a special meeting on the issue last week for assessing the damage and take remedial measures.

Same is the case with the biggest cash crop cotton. The focus on cotton for the huge economic role it plays in Pakistan’s economy blinded the official planners of effects that it would have on other competing crops. In the same streak, the government allowed mushrooming of early sowing cotton varieties. The result is that sunflower has almost disappeared from, what is commonly known as, golden triangle — Multan, Muzaffarghar and Bahwalpur.

This is evident from the ever-increasing edible oil bill. The equation would become further skewed once cotton prices fall — the slide has, in fact, already begun — and textile exports have started earning less.

It is not to suggest that official planners should not take new initiatives, but only to propose that they must do two basic things – take institutional input on such initiatives to develop a holistic agriculture picture and keep the initiative within the natural endowments of the country. There is a long list of initiatives that failed because they flew in the face of national ecological realities. These plans, tried to create ‘new strengths’ in Pakistan’s agriculture instead of building on the existing ones. Almost permanent initiative for tea and olive plantation are two such examples.

Instead of learning from such experiences, Pakistan Oilseed Development Board (PODB) has been abolished, without assigning the task to any federal body or provinces.

Pakistan produces only one-third of its edible oil requirements. Now it has abolished the only agency looking after even that meager 30 per cent production.

The reason for abolition is the rush of blood created by political momentum of the 18th Amendment. No one certainly found time to consider the future of edible oil production and cost of failure to do so. Otherwise, a succeeding system could have been developed. Once the oil import bill hits the roof, the planners would rush not only to restore the board under a new name but also launch few more money-guzzling schemes to wipe out the effects.

The wheat crop has gobbled over 1.3 million additional acres in Punjab alone ever since support price was increased. What kind of additional high-value crops could have been sown on these acres and what benefits they would have brought to the country?

No one has calculated so far at the national level. How the exceptionally high domestic price of wheat made the exports non-viable for the next two and massive food circular debt not only created cash scarcity in the country, but also cost the governments over Rs100 billion for servicing those debts.

The cost-benefit ratio must accompany new initiatives or support price regime.

Similarly, the possibility of early varieties of cotton eating into sunflower could have seen earlier, and the crop could have been shifted to other areas along the River Indus. Experts believe that areas along Indus — Taunsa, Mithon Kot and Sadiqabad — ecologically suite the crop, and would have been an equally good replacement.

Instead of seeing the emerging scenario and planning for it, the federal government has simply abolished the very agency that could have provided the advice and future planning. To make the matter worse, no production and planning assignment has been given to provinces.

It is thus a total vacuum as far as edible oil development is concerned. Unfortunately, the edible oil import bill now stands second only to petroleum products.