ISLAMABAD, May 19: Speakers at a conference here on Thursday traced the social and economic causes behind the Arab unrest and expressed surprise over the selective response of the West that was trying to channelise the direction of the change.

The conference, 'Middle East developments: trends and future prospects' was organised by Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) in collaboration with the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) of Iran at a local hotel.

Former Foreign Minister Inamul Haq explained how different Arab countries had dealt with the uprising. “The West will raise issues of human rights and stability to attain its objectives,” he observed.

He said the US was plotting a Sunni front against Shias. He added: “The economic cost will be high for Pakistan as disturbances in Arab countries will result in an exodus of Pakistani workers,” he said.

He predicted hard future for the Arab protest as the leadership there is corrupt and generally backed by the West. “No hope is in sight for a change towards democracy,” he added.

Ahmad Farahani, IRNA's bureau chief, said protection of Zionist regime would guide the West response to the Arab uprising. He hoped the change in Arab countries would make them come out of US influence.

Former ambassador Tanveer Ahmed Khan said the Arab unrest was a reality and not a myth. “The West is trying to channalise the direction of the change. The future of Arab revolution may feature a counterrevolution in the shape of tight security, more money and limited reforms. But what has happened cannot be undone. The Arab world is going to change and US is trying to reconfigure the Middle East,” he maintained.

Dr Maqsudul Hasan Nuri, President IPRI, said the common features of the Arab uprising were youth with secular approach, a sudden eruption and a leaderless revolt. “Pakistanis welcome the trend but wish that there is no destabilisation and sectarianism which may spread to their country,” he remarked.

He said Pakistan should not interfere in these developments in anyway. He also touched upon the killing of Osama bin Laden and said politically he had died in the Middle East but physically was killed in Pakistan.

Dr Riffat Hussain, Chairman Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at Quaid-i-Azam University (QAU), described the Arab uprising as a popular revolution of the Arab masses against the dynastic order governance in their countries. “It is heartening to note the presence of women in these protests. The entrenched status quo has been shaken,” he said.

He, however, feared that the revolts would ultimately be crushed by the repressive regimes.

Dr Nazir Hussain, Associate Professor QAU, said the youth bulge was big in the Arab countries so a change was bound to come. New inventions like the internet have lubricated the forces of change and shaken the status quo, he said.He said Israeli was losing friends in Egypt, Jordon and elsewhere and it was feeling insecure. He said outcome in Bahrain and Libya would determine the direction of the change which is imminent.

Dr Lubna Ali, head of the International Relations at QAU, said the independent policies of Iran and the resistance by Hizbollah in Lebanon had influenced a change in the Arab world.

Akram Zaki said the Iranian revolution was the model for the change that was taking place. He said the US was very clear about its policy which was to protect Israel, control strategic resources and force the world to toe its line.