During a meeting with Ambassador on January 31, Nawaz Sharif confirmed he was ready to work with the Pakistan People's Party in a post-election coalition government and described this union as “the best thing that could happen in Pakistan.” – Photo on file

CLASSIFIED BY: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d) Feb 1, 2008

During a meeting with Ambassador on January 31, Nawaz Sharif confirmed he was ready to work with the Pakistan People's Party in a post-election coalition government and described this union as “the best thing that could happen in Pakistan.” He dismissed reports of threats against his life as attempts by the government to dissuade him from campaigning. Noting that emotions remain high in Sindh, he predicted violence if the election was seen as being rigged for Musharraf's party. As proof of his pro-Americanism, Nawaz reminded Ambassador that he had overruled his Chief of Staff to deploy Pakistani forces with the US coalition in the first Gulf War. Nawaz remained firm in his belief that all of the deposed judiciary must be reinstated.

Ambassador and Polcouns met former Prime Minister and Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif on January 31 for an hour during Nawaz's recent visit to Islamabad. PML-N leader Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan also attended the meeting. Nawaz met EU ambassadors the same day and urged them to take preemptive action to prevent rigging in the upcoming election.

Despite the decreased level of campaigning due to security concerns, Nawaz and Khan both said that voter emotions were higher than they have ever seen. Sindh, in particular, remains very tense, and could erupt if the election outcome is perceived as being rigged. Nawaz noted that civil society and student groups were politicised in ways they have not been before. The PML-N did not want violence, but it might be impossible to control the people if they felt they had been wronged. Nawaz expressed concern that extremists could take advantage of and exacerbate tensions. He warned that what he described as negatively-perceived US support for Musharraf could create a backlash of anti-Americanism, if the public perceives that the government rigged the elections.

“We could be sitting on a volcano, and the next four-five weeks will be critical for the region and for Pak-American relations.”

The best thing America has done recently, said Nawaz, was arrange to have General Kayani named as Chief of Army Staff. This appointment is helping Army morale and raising the level of public respect for the Army. Noting that Musharraf met the UK equivalent to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Khan said the US and the UK need to stop treating Musharraf as if he still ran the military. CENTCOM Commander Admiral Fallon would have met with Musharaf if the President had not been travelling, asserted Khan. Ambassador replied that we had excellent relations with the Pakistani military and meet them all the time at various levels.

Nawaz and Khan both repeatedly said that the PML-N was pro-American. Nawaz recounted his decision to override his Chief of Army Staff and deploy Pakistani troops to Saudi Arabia in support of the US coalition in the first Gulf War. Meanwhile, Khan noted, the PPP and its leaders were organising street demonstrations against Pakistan joining with the US coalition. Now, Nawaz said, he was hurt that the US did not remember. Nawaz said he understood that 9/11 had changed things, but urged that the US apply some balance to the relationship. In the past, the US was known as the power that rejected dictatorships, that fought for independence of the judiciary and the rule of law. Why, he asked, did we continue to support a man who fired the Supreme Court, abrogated the constitution, and arrested civil society activists?

Comment: The fact that a former Prime Minister believes the US could control the appointment of Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff speaks volumes about the myth of American influence here. Based on our understanding of the current situation, we believe Nawaz can and should take the threats to his life seriously. It comes as no surprise that Nawaz exaggerated his party's election prospects; his willingness to deal with the PPP is, however, a good sign he is ready to cooperate on government formation.

PATTERSON