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September 21, 2008 Sunday Ramazan 20, 1429



Rupee fall makes market nervous



By Shahid Iqbal


KARACHI, Sept 20: As currency market is getting nervous with each passing day on falling rupee, dealers are questioning ‘Will the rupee touch the figure of 100 against the US dollar?’

No dealer or expert is in a position to find out the actual strength of the rupee, and hopes for revival of the rupee are fading, with the shrinking weight of the rupee against all major currencies.

Each day the rupee is falling against the US currency to establish new records, and currency dealers assume that it might be the last fall, but the next day, rupee falls again to shatter the remaining confidence in it.

Analysts believe there is no limit for the rupee to slide, as there is no obvious check on its free fall, and there are bleak prospects, and on each day, the base for rupee strength is tapering.

The foreign exchange reserves are depleting for more than 10 months, and the current account deficit is also widening each month.

“We did never think about such a fast devaluation of the rupee as it performed during the last few months, but now everyone in the market can think of any figure for devaluation of the rupee against the US dollar,” said a currency dealer.

“The rupee may touch 80 against the US dollar next week,” said a currency dealer.

Earlier, currency dealers were assuming that there might be a possible hidden link between the rupee and the price of one litre of petrol, but petrol prices shot up to Rs86.7 and the rupee remained between 75 and 77 per dollar.

Now petrol prices have started coming down and the rupee is fast approaching towards the petrol price. The rupee has crossed 78 and petrol prices are expected to fall around Rs80.

The government has announced to remove all subsidies on petroleum products and a number of reports suggest that the government would reduce the petrol price as it earns 33 per cent profit on petrol.

The currency market sees only one option to hold the rupee from falling and that is to increase the foreign exchange reserves instead of their depletion. They were of the view that building of reserves with even borrowed dollars would help rupee maintain some strength of the rupee.

“An IMF delegation is meeting high-ups in Islamabad and the government has already started following the prescription of IMF, like selling of assets on a ‘war-footing’,” said an analyst.

The government said it might earn $3 billion by selling Qadirpur gas-field. It has already approved a list of 52 important valuables for privatisation.

“It looks that Pakistan has been advised by the international donors not to request for dollars, and instead sell her assets to get the dollars,” said the analyst.







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