August 25, 2008	Monday	Sha'aban 22, 1429

It is difficult to say whether the last rites of the PPP-PML-N were first read out at Mian Nawaz Sharif’s Raiwind farm or at the Zardari House in Islamabad. One thing, however, is abundantly clear: the seven-month alliance between the country’s most powerful political parties ended on Saturday. The announcement of the premature death may well be a mere formality.

Although the PML-N’s inflexibility is also to blame, most observers believe that the PPP’s failure to honour verbal and written commitments regarding the judges’ issue was what was largely responsible for the break-up.

The air in Islamabad was already tense. That has escalated since Saturday, mainly after Nawaz Sharif brought his deadline for the restoration of the judges forward to Monday and, ignoring his demand, the PPP leadership formally announced Asif Zardari’s candidature for the presidential elections. And, if the statements of some of the senior PML-N leaders are any indication, the two sides are headed for a gloves-off showdown soon after they part ways.

But does this mean that it was an unnatural alliance to begin with, and that there was never anything in common between the two parties and their leaders? And, more importantly, have the two sides learnt nothing from the country’s recent history? The relationship was certainly never expected to be ideal, given the past enmity between the two leaderships. Nevertheless, many thought that they had learned their lessons and would perhaps not allow the alliance to fall apart -- at least, so soon -- given the way it all started out, with Mr Sharif and Mr Zardari initially going out of their way to accommodate each other’s views and desires. Perhaps, it was thought, Benazir Bhutto’s assassination also provided the much-needed healing touch that compelled the two leaders to create an accommodative atmosphere.

Within weeks of the formation of the new government, however, it started to become obvious that all was not hunky-dory in terms of this alliance. On paper, it continued to appear a formidable combination. But it soon dawned on most people that beneath the smiles remained buried the same deep suspicions about each other’s intentions that the two leaders had always had.

If the issue of the judges’ restoration was to be the litmus test for the alliance’s success, the two leaders failed badly. Where Mr Sharif proved that his politics had no room for flexibility, Mr Zardari showed to the world that his definition of ethics in politics was somewhat different to that held by most others.

Hopes of better understanding were revived when they successfully got rid of the president earlier this month, but it proved to be a pipe dream. It was back to square one within 24 hours of Gen (retd) Musharraf’s exit. The last nail in the alliance’s coffin was, perhaps, the PPP Central Executive’s move to nominate Mr Zardari as the presidential candidate, and the election commission’s announcement of the election schedule. This combined with Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s disclosure that Mr Zardari was finding it difficult to restore Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry to the post of chief justice because of obligations to unnamed forces that helped secure Mr Musharraf’s resignation.

The PML-N interpreted these developments as a clear message that Mr Zardari was not prepared to restore the judges — and certainly not the chief justice. And while PPP politicians continued to argue that all they were asking for was more time, the claim appeared unconvincing in light of the series of broken promises over the issue. Then came to Mr Zardari’s remarks during a BBC Urdu service interview that the promises and pledges he had made were not Holy Scripture, and should not be considered sacrosanct. These comments removed whatever doubts remained about his real intentions. From the PML-N standpoint, it was a great betrayal.

Saturday’s events showed that Mr Zardari’s priorities are quite clear: He is a focussed person and at the moment he is trying to consolidate his grip on power. After having installed some of his most trusted people in key posts in Sindh and Islamabad, he has ‘agreed’ to go for the presidency. And if the idea is to have complete control with no interference from other pillars of the state — particularly the judiciary — then Iftikhar Chaudhry really does not fit into the scheme of things.

Meanwhile, take a look at all Mr Zardari has achieved in the years past. From being a playboy in the 70s to the country’s prospective president in 2008 is no mean feat. It is true that during this period he went through several ups and downs. His claim to fame in politics was that he married the country’s top politician, Benazir Bhutto, which twice took him to the Prime Minister’s House as the PM’s spouse. From there, he ended up in jail for years, under charges of financial corruption — and that too with a smile on his face.

Given all this, Asif Zardari has clearly passed the test of time. While he was never convicted for any of the charges against him, his deal with former president Musharraf — in the form of the NRO — helped whitewash all his crimes. From the Mr Ten Per Cent of the 90s he became Mr Clean, with his worst accusers of the past making deals with him. A success story, indeed.

But does this qualify him to become the head of the state? While a lot of people have strong reservations about his candidature, perhaps time alone will tell whether he proves any better than some of his predecessors. The argument goes, you see, that if Gen Zia or Gen Musharraf can install themselves as the country’s presidents, or if the likes of Rafiq Tarar can get elected to the position, why not Mr Zardari?

However, this is certainly not a good omen for Nawaz Sharif. The future may well be his but for the moment he has been left high and dry. From his supporters or those managing the lawyers’ movement, he may be getting some kudos for his stance on the judges’ issue. But will that be enough to fulfil his aspirations to be centre-stage in the country’s politics? Once the alliance falls apart, there will be no prospects of undoing the 17th Amendment. This, in turn, would mean that even if Mr Sharif becomes a member of the National Assembly, his two-term rule earlier may not allow him to become prime minister.

And, meanwhile, with the 17th Amendment in place, Mr Zardari will be as powerful a president as Gen (retd) Musharraf was.

For the moment, perhaps, the PML-N’s real effort will lie in protecting its bastion of power, the Punjab. As the chief minister, Shahbaz Sharif certainly has the talent to deliver — provided he is given the opportunity. Yet this may well prove a tough task given the recent manoeuvrings of the province’s politically charged governor, Salman Taseer. Some refer to clear signs of a return to the acrimonious relationship of the 90s, which brought everything to a standstill.

A clearer picture may start to emerge within a few days. This will indicate whether, even after the parting of ways, the leaders of the two parties are capable of demonstrating enough political maturity not only to save the democratic system from collapse, but also allow the central and provincial governments to meet the larger challenges posed by the economy and terrorism.

Because, observers say, if they fail the nation, there is a strong possibility that Gen Musharraf may have the last laugh!