These economists believe that economies never remain flat, they either grow or contract and bounce back quickly and insist that the more likely scenario would be of a contracting economy blossoming into a blooming recession before bouncing back.

In the last 50 years, the economy of the UK is said to have experienced only once a period when output had been broadly flat for more than a quarter. And even then, the two 0.1 per cent rises in GDP in Q3 and Q4 of 1989 preceded the 1990s recession, when output went on to fall for five consecutive quarters from Q2 1990.

In fact, on every occasion since 1955 that annual GDP growth has slowed to 1.5 per cent or below, either the level of output has risen sharply in the next quarter or gone on to fall outright. By way of explanation these economic ups and downs are being likened to a jet plane that needs to maintain a minimum speed to keep on flying. If it moves any slower, it stalls and crashes.

A weakening in economic activity is said to generate a slowdown in GDP growth to below the rate of productivity growth. This is followed by firms starting to reduce employment. And the resulting rise in unemployment leads to sharp falls in consumer confidence, a weakening in household spending and lower corporate profits.

This, in turn, is said to prompt companies to shed more jobs, thus kick-starting the process again. In other words, once the economy slows by enough to prompt firms to cut jobs, a self-perpetuating vicious circle develops and a recession becomes the most likely outcome.

Ample evidence is said exist to indicate that this process is underway in the UK. Unemploy-ment has risen in each of the six months to July, consumer confidence has fallen to levels below those seen in the early 1990s recession, surveys of activity on the high street have been unambiguously weak and the falls in companies’ holdings of M4 money suggest that profits are falling.

Thus, it is widely expected that the annual GDP rate would be revised from 1.6 to 1.5 per cent – the rate that has historically been the tipping point for a recession.

These economists, however, hope that this will be one of the occasions when, after slowing to 1.5 per cent, GDP growth would bounce back quickly. Capital Economics Limited, a London-based research firm said GDP growth in the UK is currently dangerously close to the rate that has historically tipped the economy into recession.

But regardless of whether the UK enters a recession or not, the key point is that activity is going to be very weak for some time, eventually it will prompt sharp interest rate cuts, hopes CEL.

The UK Confederation of British Industries’ monthly industrial trends survey for August makes another gloomy reading. It suggests that the manufacturing sector is leading the rest of the economy into recession. The fall in the output expectations balance from -7 in July to -13 is consistent with the official measure of output falling by around three per cent per annum in the coming months.

Both the total and export orders balances fell back to the lows seen back in April. And the recent weakening in activity in the euro-zone – the UK’s largest export market – suggests that further falls are likely. Perhaps more significant was the fall in the prices expectations balance from +34 to +31. This was the first fall in seven months and could be the first sign that the sharp drop in the oil price is dampening the upward pressure on selling prices.

In deed, this balance was already consistent with some easing in the official measure of core output price inflation from 6.6 to around five per cent. Overall, this survey suggests that it won’t be long before the official data confirm that the manufacturing sector is in recession. But at least there are some signs that pipeline price pressures may have peaked.

In a related development the slowing economy has brought Sterling under serious pressure and currency watchers are predicting the pound to cost around $1.70 by the next year as interest rates in the UK are gradually slashed to 3.5 per cent to reinvigorate the economy at a time when the US interest rates would be going up.

The pound had fallen continuously in the first half of the current month against the US currency – its longest slide in 37 years. Since the end of July, it has dropped by 6.5 per cent to $1.86. Nobody is, however, sure where this slide would take the pound finally.

With the fuel and food prices playing havoc with the British economy, enterprising Britons are turning to innovative ideas to escape the tyranny of looming hyper inflation. One idea is to increase the use of electric cars and the other is to increase the soil productivity by conservation farming or what is called organic farming.

A survey this month by Esure, a car-insurance company, quoted by the Economist last week found that 71 per cent of British motorists would consider driving electric cars. The number of such cars in London is said to have increased dramatically, from 90 in 2003 to 1,600 in 2008.

Today there are 40 spots in London where drivers who have paid £75 for a key can pull in and plug in for recharge, free of charge, and some privately owned car parks have charging points too. Another 100 charging stations are said to be now on the cards.

London officials are also said to be interested in talking with Renault-Nissan, which builds plug-in electric cars and the networks that support them. The carmaking alliance has focused so far on selling to small countries — especially net energy importers that are struggling with soaring fuel prices — and has concluded deals to set up networks of battery-exchange and recharging points in Israel, Denmark and Portugal.