LAHORE, July 29: Punjab on Tuesday feared that Mangla Dam might not be filled this year, putting two-thirds of wheat crop in irrigated areas of the province in jeopardy during the next Rabi season.

Provincial water mangers say the question of taking the Mangla lake to 1,212 feet, as planned by the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda), does not arise at the moment.

The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) is struggling to take the lake to even 1,202 feet the normal optimum level as inflow in Jehlum has dropped to its minimum. Given the paltry inflow of 22,400 cusecs, the lake is literally inching towards that elusive level of 1,202 feet.

The lake is filling by four to five inches a day and stood at 1,180 feet on Tuesday. There are still 22 feet to go, which does not seem possible unless there is some cloud burst in catchments. According to Irsa calculations, the dam should have been at a level of 1,195 feet by July 31.

The lake, however, is 15 feet below that level.

“Wapda plans to fill the lake by an additional 10 feet, but faces double jeopardy,” says an official of Wapda’s Water Wing. There is no water to substantiate the wish of Wapda, and the people, living within the level of 1,212 feet, have still not vacated their houses. Wapda tried but failed to get the areas vacated. Thus the drop in water flows has only saved Wapda from public criticism, he said.

There is forecast of some rains during the first and second week of August, which may test Wapda’s resolve to add another 10 feet to the lake level. Should that forecast turns out to be true, Wapda would have hard time convince the government why it did not get the areas vacated according to the plan, he said.

“There has been an overall shortage of water this season,” says an official of the Punjab Irrigation Department. Irsa calculated an inflow of 64 million acre feet (maf) by the end of July, but only 56maf water has actually flown into the system – leaving a shortfall of eight million acre feet. This deficit is translating into depressed levels of dams.

It is not only Mangla Dam where the filling is at risk. Tarbella Lake has its own problems. The lake is still 42 feet below the optimum level of 1,550 feet and temperature in Northern Areas are already going down, affecting the glacier melt. During the last 30 feet filling, the dam is filled by one foot a day. This means that dam would need a consistent supply of water for another month to get filled. The decreased supplies have put further pressure on both dams. Irsa has planned their simultaneous depletion to meet provincial water demands, thus increasing pressure on dams.

The water inflow at Tarbella Dam dropped to 159,300 cusecs from a peak of 250,000 cusecs a week ago, as supplies are sliding every day. On Tuesday, Irsa released 179,900 cusecs from Tarbella – 20,600 cusecs more than the inflow. Thus the filling of Tarbella Dam would have its own problems.