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| February 21, 2008 | Thursday | Safar 13, 1429 |
No easy choices
This needless provocation
A role reversal for supremacy
OTHER VOICES - Middle East Press
IF one had thought the end of the year 2007 will end the gloom and doom that has hit the world economy, the start of the year 2008 has not brought about the relief each one of us was hoping for.
THE winds of change are refreshing. Not only have they ushered in an era of governance that promises to be more democratic than the previous one, they have also signalled a greater degree of freedom for women in politics. Thus for the first time, women in South Waziristan voted. True, there were other areas, both in Fata and in the NWFP, where female voters were regrettably denied the ballot — that too thanks to decisions by jirgas and threats by militants. Against this backdrop, the decision of tribal elders in South Waziristan and some other places to allow women to vote was a welcome one. It indicated that the elders were willing to change by breaking with tradition and defying the militants. Helped by secular forces, such flexibility can gain momentum, giving an increasing number of women a political voice, especially those isolated from the mainstream. In undertaking this task, liberal elements had one major advantage in these elections: religious forces either boycotted or fared badly, thus losing much of their political clout.
What should also boost political participation by women in conservative regions is the example of women living in more liberated environments. Many of them aspire to leadership roles. For instance, there has been a discernible rise in the number of women running for election to the National Assembly. If, in the 1988 elections, 27 women ran for the general seats, 20 years later the number was more than 60. Four women were elected in 1988 while 13 will take oath in the next National Assembly, one more than in 2002. In addition, hundreds of women registered themselves to contest for 60 reserved seats in the National Assembly and 128 in the provincial assemblies, where 116 ran for 577 general seats. Credit must be given here to President Musharraf for reviving and enhancing the reserved seats for women in 2002. These had lapsed under the 1973 Constitution and therefore did not feature in the 1990, 1993 and 1997 polls, causing the number of women legislators to plummet.
The ideal situation is, of course, one where the system is quota-free and women feel confident about running on their own merit. But for this, greater input is needed from the legislators themselves who have to go beyond adopting party positions on matters that are critical to women. They must recognise that there is no room for conservative ideological positions that obstruct justice for the women whose empowerment they (theoretically) seek. The lack of unity among women parliamentarians on this issue was more than apparent in the days leading up to the Women Protection Act in 2006. Women legislators will remain bereft of both assertiveness and authority unless they recognise the needs of half the population, and together fight for the rights of those they claim to represent. Political parties could also promote the cause of women in politics if they were to give more tickets to female candidates for the general seats. A provision to that effect in the Political Parties Act, as in South Africa, would be a welcome step.
THE new political government, expected to be installed over the next few weeks, would have limited options to stem the economic downturn looming large on the horizon. The next government — expected to be a coalition — would be required to take tough decisions to correct the fiscal imbalances that have emerged during the last several months due to ad hoc management of the economy in the run-up to the Feb 18 vote. The difficult economic challenges that the new political administration would be hard pressed to deal with include a slowing growth rate, the rising price inflation — especially food inflation affecting the poor — a widening foreign trade deficit, the surging gap between global and domestic oil prices, and energy and food shortages. A further delay in staunching the prices to prevent them from soaring further and narrowing the external deficit on account of runaway global oil and commodity markets could play havoc with the budgetary target of fiscal deficit and cause the economic conditions to deteriorate in the long run.
Given the track record of the political parties emerging victorious in the crucial Monday vote, many are sceptical of their ability to take difficult decisions and handle delicate economic challenges in a pragmatic manner. In addition, the split mandate given by the people — it is more likely to throw up a coalition of larger and smaller, regional parties than majority party rule — means that the new political dispensation might succeed in building consensus on less controversial issues. But it could dither on taking tougher decisions, such as increasing domestic oil prices, as all components might be pulling in different directions depending on their stakes in the new administration. None would want to alienate its voters immediately after winning the polls.
How to move forward, and in which direction? Before forming a coalition, the major political parties would need to agree on a minimum common political agenda and develop a consensus on issues ranging from the war against terrorism to reinstatement of the deposed judges. All issues are as complex and divisive as threats to the economy. Thus, it would be a desirable act on the part of the political parties to also include issues related to the economy in their power-sharing negotiations and subsequent agreement. That would build a sort of national consensus on economic issues and pre-empt each component from blocking the measures required to overcome the looming downslide.
SCENES of jubilation degenerated into chaos on Tuesday following clashes in Karachi between supporters of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and the Pakistan People’s Party. Two innocent bystanders, including an eight-year-old girl, were killed by stray bullets in the Ranchore Lines area where PPP workers had massed for a victory celebration. There were reports too of confrontations involving other PPP rallies but the MQM denies any and all responsibility for the violence. With both groups claiming to be the victims, it is impossible to say who and what triggered the clashes. In any case, apportioning and affixing blame is not the point here. We stress instead that such needless provocation must be avoided at all costs to maintain the peace and to further a democratic process which currently stands at a historic crossroads. The possibilities before us now are so monumental that new epochs can be created through collective effort. This country and every one of its cities, towns, villages and hamlets belong to all of us, not any one individual or organisation. Almost everyone has a reason to be happy with the outcome of Election 2008. It is now within our means to change the course of history and this chance for redemption can be squandered only at our peril. Needling each other at this juncture can serve no constructive purpose and will benefit only the enemies of democracy.
On a different note, the way we celebrate is also worth a rethink. Karachi has been reverberating these last few days with the sound of fireworks and weapons. The guns have been fired mostly not in anger but jubilation. While this practice may be in keeping with the macho mindset that rules our society, it needs to be remembered that bullets fired randomly into the air ultimately land somewhere. Stray bullets kill children playing in balconies and people in the safety of their homes. Let us celebrate like civilised human beings.
The world has been shaken by recession in America, and as stock markets tumbled all around us, questions as to the impact of globalisation, the belief that Asian markets have delinked themselves from American market trends and whether the world will ever be free and fair, tend to dominate all wary and searching minds.
Let us take America, the rest of the markets, and Pakistan to gauge the impact of these trends on their respective economies. America as we know has been under political and economic stress in the last many years. George Bush has all the traits a leader should not have. He is myopic and thus has no vision. He is arrogant and thus will never learn from his mistakes. He is surrounded by incompetent bootlickers and thus would not have the support of a team who could assist him in crisis management. With this chronic malaise it was inevitable for America to reach its lowest level of popularity and invincibility in the world.
The US recession is triggered by three unstoppable forces: the housing slowdown; high oil prices; and higher interest rates. The US consumer, already burdened with high debt and falling real wages, will be hard hit by these shocks. About 30 per cent of US employment in the latest recovery had been related to housing. With this collapse, unemployment and lack of disposable income will be worse off.
Of course, a recession in America would reduce emerging economies’ exports, but they are less vulnerable than they used to be. America’s importance as an engine of global growth has been exaggerated. Since 2000 its share of world imports has dropped from 19 per cent to 14 per cent. Its vast current account deficit has started to shrink, meaning that America is no longer pulling along the rest of the world.
Fears that 2008 will see the looming recession in the US spreading to every other continent triggered a global crash in share prices in the UK as well, wiping £77bn off the value of the City’s blue-chip stocks in the biggest one-day points fall in London’s history. Since the start of the year share prices have dropped by 14 per cent, with the near 900-point fall in the FTSE 100 wiping out all the gains of the last 18 months and putting renewed pressure on pension funds.
The emerging markets have fared much better. Growth in emerging economies has quickened, partly thanks to demand at home. In the first half of 2007 the increase in consumer spending (in actual dollar terms) in China and India added more to global GDP growth than that in America.
This does not mean emerging economies will grow fast enough to make up for the entire fall in America’s output. Most of them will slow a bit next year: for instance, China’s growth rate may dip to ‘only’ 10 per cent. Global growth will ease — which, after five years at an average of almost five per cent, is close to its fastest pace ever. But thanks to the vigour of the new titans, it will stay above its 30-year average of 3.5 per cent, while the West will hardly grow at two per cent.
While share prices have been falling in the US and UK, share prices in the emerging markets, including Pakistan, have been rising. The immediate effect of the US depression was a tumbling of stocks all across the world including Pakistan, but the impact on emerging markets is not as deep as historically it has been.
The role reversal for supremacy has started. Military might alone is insufficient in today’s world to give you the right to rule the world. Increasingly it is economic strength which makes countries rise and rule. For a long period of time it was America and Europe which produced and sold every thing worthwhile in the world.
Today the Asian giants are making deep inroads into these areas of dominance. The multinational structure was invented by the Americans to dominate by sheer scale and scope in most parts of the world. The scope expansion was fuelled by the strategy of mergers and acquisitions where they would simply go into another country, buy local companies, and make them part of the multinational system. The turnover of these multinationals was many times more than the GDPs of smaller countries.
General Electric with its revenues of almost $150bn can outdo the GDP of Pakistan and many other countries. Thus the political subjugation by British colonialism and American imperialism was replaced by economic dominance of the multinational where the Cokes and Pepsi economies of scale and the prevalence of pop culture became the ‘lifestyle’ determinants for most part of the world. However, the end of the last century saw the emergence of Japanese and South Korean conglomerates as serious threats to the American dominance while the beginning of this century saw China and India turning the tables on the world.
The prestigious American and British auto industry was under attack previously from Japan and recently from India. Ford bought Jaguar but could not handle it and finally sold it to Tata of India. Mittal steel has taken over Arcelor from France and Tata has taken over Corus steel from UK. Chinese brands are now threatening another industry in which Americans used to rule the world, that is, computers. Lenovo computers of China have bought over IBM’s personal computer business.
No wonder the Americans have been so desperate to seize control of the most precious resources in the world by hook or by crook. The oil confiscation in Iraq and Afghanistan by American military might is a substitute for the British ploy of enslaving their colonies and using their cheap labour and resources to establish new innovations at home to rule the world.
It is sad that at a time of such fortune flowing from North and West to South and East, Pakistan has been facing such internal turmoil that it has been unable to capitalise on this huge opportunity of becoming a hub of international outsourcing of services and also a natural partner for South Asian countries to spread and share the fruits of relatively cheap skilled labour and a huge consumer market.
It is time for the forthcoming political managers of this country to realise that our US dependent policy has not only lost its political mileage but its economic advantage as well. It needs to link itself economically with markets in the south to keep abreast with a world where the Asian prominence will supersede the western dominance.
Free and fair
The Saudi Gazette
Headlines across the world have cried out for weeks that Pakistan’s elections… were rigged long before any voter dropped a paper ballot into the voting box. Predictions of violence were just as numerous. But, lo and behold, almost 40 per cent of Pakistanis of voting age made their way to the polling stations unmolested and cast their votes.
And, in a surprise to all the doomsayers, mainstream opposition candidates beat out many office-holders who had come to see their positions in government as permanent.
Clearly, such a defeat of President Pervez Musharraf’s candidates could come about only if the elections were, indeed, free, fair and transparent.
…Just a few months ago, he declared emergency rule, a sure sign, many said, that he was not the democrat he had presented himself to the world as being. Free and peaceful elections certainly reflect that his primary interest, after all, is the good of Pakistan.
Of course, where Pakistan goes from here is still up in the air. Calls for Musharraf’s resignation have already begun, and they are likely to intensify in coming days and weeks. Musharraf has, for a long time, received the backing of the US, much of Europe and the Gulf states, which has been a thorn in the sides of many Pakistanis. A democratically-elected government, in theory, should continue to receive backing from these states, but it is not clear if a new government will court such support and whether the Pakistani people really want it.
As long as Musharraf continues to follow the rule of law and accepts the election results as the mandate of the people, his legacy seems assured. Whatever one thinks of his policies up to this point, his recognition and acceptance of the people’s wishes will demand that history regard him in a favourable light. — (Feb 20)
List of martyrs gets longer
Haaretz
…The argument that the price of (Hamas leader Imad) Mughniyah’s assassination may be high and cost human lives is not applicable in this case, when no one can assess what the cost would be if Mughniyah was allowed to live. There can be no doubt about the future plans of the person who was considered Hezbollah’s chief strategist and head of its operations.
A statement issued by Hezbollah on its Al-Manar radio affiliate, said that Mughniyah died “after a life full of jihad ... as a shaheed [martyr] at the hands of the Zionists.” In many ways, the path he had chosen symbolises the direction of the conflict in the Middle East, as the number of those believing in the likelihood of settling it peacefully diminishes.
The longer the list of martyrs, the more it becomes multinational and not restricted by borders, the more it strikes at targets unrelated to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict it seems there is no way out.
Hezbollah has no real conflict with Israel and the struggle against the Zionists only serves to bolster its political power in Lebanon. Iran too, which supports Hezbollah, also has no cause for war against Israel, except for the unifying element of hatred against all that is Zionist or linked to America. Were Hassan Nasrallah asked to explain the struggle against Israel in a rational way, it is doubtful he would succeed. In a war where there is no possibility of compromise that can end it, the sole option possible is the use of force.
Mughniyah’s assassination in the centre of Damascus shows … how Bashar Assad cannot be trusted. He has apparently decided that the Iran-North Korea-Syria axis and support for terrorism in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, by offering its leaders cover, are at the top of his list of priorities… — (Feb 15)