February 18, 2008	Monday	Safar 10, 1429

SUKKUR, Feb 17: Close contests are being anticipated for Sukkur’s two National Assembly seats — NA-198 and NA-199. However, PPP’s Noman Shaikh and Syed Khursheed Ahmed Shah hold an edge over their rivals, PML-Q’s Syed Tahir Hussain Shah and Taj Mohammad Shaikh respectively. Political observers here attribute the ‘edge’ to voters’ sympathy in the wake of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination.

Syed Khursheed Ahmed Shah has been the MNA for NA-198 thrice, but after the joining of Islamuddin Shaikh to the PPP fold and a green signal from co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari, his son Noman Shaikh was awarded the party’s ticket in a crucial London meeting, which was chaired by Benazir Bhutto last year. This was a clear signal for Syed Khursheed Ahmed Shah to shift over to NA-199, where a well-known lawyer Abdul Mujeeb Pirzada won the 2002 elections.

This also paved way for cooperation between Syed Khursheed Ahmed Shah and Islamuddin Shaikh and they are now working together for the two NA seats, which have by and large remained PPP strongholds.

In Sukkur, district nazim’s brother Syed Tahir Hussain Shah, a PML-Q candidate, was facing some difficulty during initial campaigning but after seat adjustments with MQM he is now finding things easier. However, the political circles do not give him an edge over Noman Shaikh due to a massive support for the PPP.

Meanwhile, the PML-F and a strong Mahar clan of Ghotki are supporting Syed Tahir Hussain Shah and Taj Mohammad Shaikh on these seats. Taj Mohammad Shaikh contested the 2002 elections against Mujeeb Pirzada and had lost the seat narrowly. But there are a large number of Hurs of Pir Pagara in this area and a good number of Mahar clan voters. Therefore, this time his camp is expecting a better result.

It is interesting that Syed Khursheed Ahmed Shah’s camp was also finding things difficult prior to Dec 27 and a tour by Benazir Bhutto for public meetings in Sukkur and Rohri had been fixed for Dec 30. Though the visit did not happen but the sympathy factor will definitely favour him on the polling day.

Although both the candidates have been taking out rallies and holding public meetings almost daily, privately they may be looking for sympathy votes.
 

There is a similar situation for provincial assembly seats PS-1, PS-2, PS-3 and PS-4, where PPP has nominated Dr Nasrullah Baloch, Anwar Khan Mahar, Syed Jawed Shah and Saifullah Dharejo respectively. Also, a strong candidate on PS-1 comes from MQM, Saeed Iqbal Malik, who is banking on the urban votes of Sukkur city. The taluka nazim of the city belongs to MQM and they have also been taking out rallies. Some clashes between the supporters of MQM and PPP also took place. However the elders of two parties saved the situation from turning bad.

On the PS-2, PML-Q has brought Abdul Ghani Khoso, who is having the support of Pir Pagara and Mahar groups also, though this constituency mainly consists of rural parts of Sukkur. PPP is expected to have a walk over on king’s party candidate. Political circles say that this contest will be a sort of flexing of muscles and it could be anybody’s game.

On PS-3 and PS-4, PPP enjoys a comfortable margin because both the seats were won by it in the last elections. However due to extensive development works undertaken by the district nazim Syed Nasir Hussain Shah in Rohri and Pano Akil, the PML-Q camp is optimistic.

Haji Khan Chachar had won PS-4 in the 1992 elections. He still enjoys the support of Chachar voters, Pir Pagara’s Hurs and Mahar’s clansmen, who are scattered in large numbers in the desert area.

Recently, a khalifa of Pir Pagara was especially sent to Rohri and Pano Akil with a message for his Hurs to vote for Haji Khan Chachar for the PS-4 and Taj Mohammad Shaikh for NA-199. The electioneering in Sukkur district has almost been peaceful except some minor clashes at the party-workers’ level and one hopes that the Feb 18 would also pass peacefully.

Ghotki

Former chief minister of Sindh Ali Mohammad Khan Mahar is contesting independently for NA-200 which covers Obaru, Daharki and Mirpur Mathelo talukas of the Ghotki district. He has full support of the PML-Q and PML-F against PPP’s Mian Abdul Haq Mithoo and PML-Q’s Khalid Khan Lund. This is anyone’s seat.

Ali Mohammad Khan Mahar is also contesting for NA-201 as an independent candidate against PPP’s Fayaz Khan Lund.

For provincial assembly seats — PS-5 Obaru, PS-6 Ghotki, PS-7 Daharki & Mirpur Mathelo and PS-8 Khangarh — the following people are facing off against each other: For PS-5 Jam Mehtab Khan Dahar of PPP, Jam Aqeel Ahmed Mahar (independent) and Ahmed Yar Shar of PML-Q; for PS-6, Ali Nawaz Khan Mahar of PML-Q and Jam Ikramullah Dharejo of PPP; for PS-7, PPP’s Ahmed Ali Pitafi, PML-Q’s Nadir Akmal Leghari and Mir Chakar Khan Bozdar of Mahar group; and for PS-8, Rahim Bux Bozdar of PML-F and Babar Khan Lund of PPP. The PML-Q’s secretary-general for Sindh, Nadir Akmal Leghari, was elected as an MPA in 2002, but this time Mahar group is supporting their candidate Mir Chakar Khan Bozdar. The situation on PS-7 and PS-8 is not clear yet and it could be anybody’s game on the day of elections.

Shikarpur

Keen contests are expected in the Shikarpur district as Aftab Shabaan Mirani of PPP and National People’s Party’s (NPP’s) Dr Ibrahim Jatoi face off each other for NA-202 while PML-Q’s Ghous Bux Khan Mahar challenges PPP’s Wahid Bux Bhayo for NA-203.

Though Dr Ibrahim Jatoi had won in 2002 elections against Aftab Shabaan Mirani, this time the stakes are high for the latter in view of the sympathy votes after the Dec 27 incident.

Dr Jatoi has a large vote bank because of his big clan and he has entered into an alliance with Ghous Bux Khan Mahar. Both are running the campaign jointly. People say that due to the domination of the Jatoi tribe, people would vote for Dr Ibrahim Jatoi, though they have sympathies for PPP too.

On NA-203, Ghous Bux Khan Mahar has a track record of winning elections, and according to a survey, he enjoys considerable support against Wahid Bux Bhayo despite a sympathy wave for PPP candidates.

For PS-9 Garhi Yasin, PS-10 Lakhi, PS-11 Shikarpur city and PS-12 Khanpur, neck and neck contests would take place between: PPP’s Agha Siraj Durrani and PML-Q’s Zulfiqar Kamario; PPP’s Kamran Mahar and PML-Q’s Shaheryar Mahar; PPP’s Agha Taimoor Khan and PML-Q’s Maqbool Shaikh; and PPP’s Agha Arsalan and NPP’s Abid Jatoi.

According to a pre-poll estimate, Agha Siraj Durrani is likely to win PS-9, followed by Kamran Mahar at PS-10.

However, the situation is expected to reverse for PS-11 and PS-12, where PML’s Maqbool Shaikh and NPP’s Abid Jatoi are supposed to be favourites due to the trends in these constituencies respectively. Although there is a clear wave of sympathy for PPP in the entire district of Shikarpur, feudal and personal connections do matter.