February 13, 2008	Wednesday	Safar 05, 1429

LAHORE, Feb 12: People are finally beginning to realise that elections will take place on Feb 18. At least it looks that way in the NA-125 constituency of Lahore where canvassing is in full swing.

The contest seems to be a close one, with all three main parties in the arena having won the seat at one time or another. The People’s Party reigned supreme over the constituency before the 1990s when it gave in to the Pakistan Muslim League-N. In the 2002 vote, PML-Q’s Humayun Akhtar Khan won the seat, but only just and amid much controversy. Both the PPP and PML-N are back to lay a claim to the seat, at a time when the PML-Q is on the back foot.

Khwaja Saad Rafiq leads the PML-N challenge and his party’s chances have received a boost after a recent visit to the area by Mian Shahbaz Sharif. Naveed Chaudhry of the PPP is hoping to benefit from a sympathy wave in the wake of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. Add to it Mr Khan’s ability to battle in the most trying conditions against formidable opponents and you realise that it is a thriller in the making.

Mr Khan may have a substantial personal vote bank and he may have a good reputation, but he has to wear the PML-Q’s tag in these difficult times for the official party. His party may prove to be a big liability for him given the anti-Musharraf miasma in the country.

Realising the public mood, he is banking on his personal appeal to see him through. His association with the party, or the Chaudhrys of Gujrat, is not referred to much in his campaign. Rather, all his banners bear the picture of his father, Gen Akhtar Abdur Rehman, who is seen as an Afghan war hero.

The PML-N and the PPP, which have avoided slinging mud at each other, are seeking to convert the campaign into a ‘noble anti-dictatorship cause’. Saad Rafiq's hoardings also bear the pictures of his father, who was slain during the Z.A. Bhutto era.

His emphasis is on his and his family’s fight against dictators but he is not shy to flaunt his PML-N link in a city considered to be the party’s bastion.

The PML-N, which traditionally enjoys support in the Saddar area, almost saw Akram Zaki through in the last election. This may prove to be decisive this time too. That Shahbaz Sharif and Hamza Shahbaz live in the constituency may also help Saad Rafiq, who himself shifted to the Defence Housing Authority quite recently.

The PPP is of course relying overwhelmingly on the late Benazir Bhutto — in the pictures adorning the party’s posters and banners, she’s looking heavenwards and praying. She has the banners all to herself, with no Asif Ali Zardari and Bilawal in sight.

The turnout is going to be critical. In 2002, when not many turned up at the polling booth, Humayun Akhtar was rather belatedly declared a winner, securing 22,405 votes against 21,186 of Akram Zaki of the PML-N and 21,152 of Naveed Chaudhry of the PPP.

That is how close it was minus the Sharifs in Lahore back then and without a sympathy vote for the PPP.