January 07, 2008	Monday	Zilhaj 27, 1428

Pakistan is struggling to grapple with the critical situation with a heavy heart. While the majority might still be depressed, the very rich and very poor seem to have recovered quickly from the shock delivered on December 27 and the subsequent countrywide violent protests.

If it is assumed this to be true wouldn’t it be appropriate to probe into the mindset and evaluate the role of the elite and the common man over the last eight years, when the political volcano was allowed to simmer and policies that widened the divide in the fragmented society were being pursued.

Privately many top notch businessmen, heads of their family empires and some corporate executives talk of the silver lining in the clouded scenario.

Outgoing APTMA President Shafqat Illahi and the current head Iqbal Ebrahim said they foresee a brighter future for the textile industry that could reposition itself with the government support to cash on frustration of western buyers with some of country’s competitors. “Discount the immediate crisis and the textile industry operators are better equipped today than ever before to ride out the challenge of competition with the government’s help”, Ebrahim told Dawn over telephone from Lahore.

Majyd Aziz, a Musharraf supporter because of the President’s business friendly policies also felt that the situation would clear off by mid- year, beyond which prospects, he felt, were exceptionally good for cement and food industry.

A few professionals contacted were too depressed to comment. When they agreed to talk it was all doom and gloom. A few told us that they would now like to move out of the country at the very first opportunity that came their way as the situation has become too scary for them to hold on. It raises the risk of brain drain in times of critical shortage of skills.

At the other end Adnan Khan, a helper at a small shop in Delhi colony, a lower middle class locality of Karachi, saw the country being mis-governed and given a chance he would vote out the current government. He got emotional when three -day strike was mentioned. “I had to get atta on credit for my joint family as all of them had to spend more than what it does on a normal day with everyone at home to eat all three meals. We do not have savings or ration that could last long. Everyone back home prays that normalcy returns and I believe the situation would improve now”, he said moving away.A number of other people interviewed by Dawn looked glum but expressed hopes for a better future. They were not able to explain reasons for their high expectations.

The poor cannot afford to grieve to their heart’s content over the extended time period. They toil every day to feed their dependents. For them business closures means risk of missing meals. So when they downplay political adversities, it is actually their survival instinct that is at work. The hope for them is a question of very survival on a daily basis.

During the eight-year rule of the military -led government they were discriminated against. The growth oriented economic policies marginalised them further. The SBP annual report and the current economic survey acknowledge the fact that the benefits of the economic growth have not tricked down and the gap between the haves and have-nots have widened.

Poor were required to work harder for longer hours as basic necessities became dearer. They were asked to pay for amenities that were free for their parents like minimum health care at the government hospitals, education and drinkable water in cities. They worked in fields and for vendors and contractors. In search of work and better life they travel away from their home and familiar surroundings to strange places in cities. The more they work the farther they move from their dream of a decent life.

They fought on under most adverse situations when fewer jobs in categories they qualify for were chased by many. In addition, they were subjected to witness the mindless wasteful consumerism where ‘sahibs’ evening expenditure exceeds his monthly earnings or much more. The stakes of business tycoons and corporate hierarchy have swelled again to a scale where it could be a part of their business strategy to suppress negative signals about the future. For they understand that in the modern world the worth of an investment depends as much on public perception of a congenial business environment as on the real value of physical assets.

The elite underwent difficult times when the eastern wing broke free to become Bangladesh in 1971 as they lost not just half of the country but also their jute mills and tea plantations and other valuable assets. Later Z.A. Bhutto’s nationalisation dealt a crippling blow depriving them of the power and assets they enjoyed during General Ayub’s era. It took the country about 30 years to develop a new class of ultra rich who are said to be mightier than 22 families of 1960s.

On the New Year eve, when the capital market set a new record of a single day loss, shedding about 700 points at KSE Index, astronomical numbers appeared in media quantifying the loss during the three- day strike in December. There were pictures of mobs in front of shops waiting to buy wheat flour; there were indications that the government might increase oil and gas rates. But the business tycoons had heart to speak with optimism. Some senior business leaders of Karachi were comparatively sceptical.

Sounding detached, these corporate stars hoped that the business would do better in 2008 on the strength of textiles, cement, pharmaceuticals, etc., no matter who heads the government over the next few years.

These high worth individuals are oblivious of their social responsibility of assisting the government in framing more appropriate economic policies that cater to the needs of majority and distribute the benefits of growth more equitably. On pretext of avoiding politics and focusing on economy, they became avid supporters of a team of country’s managers that is said to have compromised long-term economic prospects for short-term political gains. The outcome is a prolonged political crisis, casting shadows on the economy.

”They will have to accept the fact that only a democratic order is a sustainable system of governance in a society with such rich diversity. And the business must shed their neutrality and lend support to forces that favour a civilian-led democratic system or get ready for rude shocks or a prolonged period of instability in the country”, an independent political analyst who requested anonymity concluded.