Next government’s task won’t be easy
By Sultan Ahmed
THE Pakistan People’s Party has decided to go ahead to contest the elections 2008 to benefit from the sympathy vote that is likely to be cast in its favour in large number following the ghastly assassination of its chairperson Ms Benazir Bhutto. It has also decided to press for holding of the elections on the original date of January 8 and oppose any delay since the earlier the election, the better the results.
But factors like destruction of election commission offices and the records there, and possible law and order problems may become the cause of delay in the election.
The party has in its election manifesto renewed the old offer of “ roti , kapran and makan”. It is no longer as much a binding commitment as it was in the 1970s when Zulfikar Ali Bhutto came up with it but remains a slogan to go with the five broad commitments under the letter “E”.
The party is realistic enough to say that without adequate and sustained resources it can delay “roti, kapra or makaan” to the people. The government has not even been able to provide to the people the wheat flour it has because of maladministration and corruption.
In spite of the 22.5 million tonne output of wheat it has not been able to meet the demand for atta, even at a higher price, the promised price being 16 rupees a kilo. Larger resource is hard to come by and most of that is consumed by crude oil which is soaring towards 100 dollars a barrel. The fear is the deficit may rise to 4.2 percent of the GDP instead of the targeted 3.4 percent.
In the present circumstances, conditional taxation cannot be levied as it will cut across the electoral interest of the former ruling parties and the curent setup.
The context in which Zulfikar Ali Bhutto promised ‘roti , kapra and makaan’ in the 1970s has greatly changed. The population has increased by 60-70 million and inflation since the 1970s has been high and sustained. Together they have fouled up the economy and strained the resources to the extreme. So, a new government won’t be able to do much in this regard. Hence the PPP’s five “E” programme which promises jobs to the unemployed is by no means easy to implement.
If in spite of the record wheat output of 22.5 million tones there can be its scarcity, the nature of the problem is understandable. Either the estimate of the crop was not accurate and was exaggerated for political reasons, or the output is inadequate to meet the actual needs. Maybe, the distribution of wheat and atta was mismanaged as they went into the hands of hoarders and price manipulators. The new government may not be able to do better unless the party cadres effectively support remedial measures.
Now the caretaker government in Sindh has promised to sell wheat flour at Rs16 per kilo by asking all the 45 flour mills to open a depot each and provided them wheat at the fixed price. But the wheat flour is still available at far higher prices.
The question remains whether the crop was wilfully exaggerated and how many politicians were involved in the hoarding and profiteering. Those who hoard should be tried and punished although that may not be possible during the election period for political reasons.
This is the situation about “roti.” Coming to “kapra”, the fact is that prices have risen far higher than what they were in the 1970s. Cotton prices have soared high and we have begun to import it from India and Central Asia to meet the shortage. On urgent basis, we are importing 500,000 thousand bales of short staple cotton from India. The crop output has become unstable because of weather conditions and pest attacks.
Our effort to produce dirt-free and pest-free cotton must be made a success and not a partial one, as it has been through the efforts of Razzak Dawood, ex-commerce minister. The efficiency of the textile mills should also be improved and their products should be able to command a better price. The cotton output should be raised initially to fifteen million bales and ultimately to 25 million bales. What is important is that our products earn a better name abroad. The yield per acre for cotton should be improved at least to the level as in Indian Punjab which is not too difficult.
The crunch comes when the question of “makan” or housing for the poor comes up. Housing has become much too costly in spite of the recent drop in real estate prices. Land is becoming more costly in many places. The land for the poor is also getting scarce whereas a lot of land is available for the very rich.
Land is a political asset more so now when it is too costly and the provincial governments do not want to spare it. That is all the more so when many politicians want to grab it. The Nawaz Sharif government found it very difficult to get land for low income housing from the provincial governments. And when the land is available the price is very high.
The second problem is the preference of the workers for housing near their places of work. They do not like to travel long distance, as it is costly, to reach their factories and return home. So they prefer to stay in Katchi Abadis close to their places of work. As a result Katchi Abadis have sprung up in many places and it suits the politicians to patronise them as they can get their return in terms of votes.
Then, building materials are getting more and more costly. Cement at about close to Rs300 a bag is 12 times as high as it was in the 1970s, brick too is costly and the prices of steel products are always going up. Construction workers who are qualified are costly and others cost as much without competence.
Hence, the government, instead of promising more housing, is offering house building loans to workers but because of inflation, they are not able to pay the housing instalments.
As a result of the environmental pollution and degradation pollution is on the increase. Fifty thousand people die each year in Pakistan because of pollution and the country loses economically Rs350 billion, says a recent World Bank report. In view of these facts the government is not able to meet its social commitments or economic promises.

