| December 31, 2007 | Monday | Zilhaj 20, 1428 |
PPP’s new leader
Interfaith consensus
Not a time for profiteering
Beyond load-shedding
OTHER VOICES - American Press
| December 31, 2007 | Monday | Zilhaj 20, 1428 |
THE Pakistan Electric Power Company (PepCo) plans to impose a four-hour load-shedding programme in order to deal with an imminent shortfall in capacity that is estimated to be about 2,000MW or some 20 per cent of the total demand.
THE unfortunate reality of South Asia´s dynastic politics was in evidence on Sunday as Bilawal Zardari, the 19-year-old son of the slain Pakistan People’s Party leader Benazir Bhutto, was approved as chairman by the central executive committee. But not before he, along with his sisters, decided to take on the Bhutto name. He will now be called Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari. Pakistan does not have a long democratic tradition but even democratic India is not immune from the magical attraction of political dynasties. Sadly, both here and across the border these dynasties are also haunted by tragedies.
After the PPP leader’s assassination last week, world attention seemed riveted to Naudero where the party’s CEC was scheduled to meet with a daunting agenda. The issue of succession had to be decided without delay if the PPP were not to go adrift at a time when it was required to chart its political course. There was also the need to decide whether to participate in next month’s polls. On the eve of the meeting, Asif Zardari had told BBC that his spouse had left a will and all decisions would be informed by this document. At the eagerly-awaited news conference, Makhdoom Amin Faheem told journalists that Ms Bhutto wanted Asif Zardari to take over the party but he had decided to hand over the mantle to his son. In turn Bilawal said he would take up the reins of the party after completing his education. He is in his first year at Oxford.
This effectively puts the party in co-chairman Asif Zardari’s hands. He seemed aware of the challenges he faces. He was very quick to try and isolate the fringe elements in Sindh, who were seeking to use Ms Bhutto’s killing to fan anti-Punjab sentiments, saying he’d been pained by ´Pakistan na khapay´ (Don’t want Pakistan) slogans at her graveside. He reminded his audience that PPP was a party which believed in the federation. His appeal for calm included the advice to supporters to seek their revenge at the ballot box – confirming that the party will take part in elections, which it wants should be held on schedule. In a deft move aimed at keeping unity in the party ranks, Makhdoom Amin Faheem was presented as the prime ministerial candidate. For the moment, most of the decisions taken by a traumatised PPP appear politically prudent. The party wishes to try and turn the tragedy of losing its leader into an electoral victory by continuing to have a Bhutto at the helm even if only as a figurehead for now and garnering the sympathy vote. It has been accused of using the ´Sindh card´ in the past, so its response to parochial slogans will appeal to a much broader support base. Now it is up to the government to ensure that it responds with assurances of free, fair and impartial elections and by conducting a transparent probe into Ms Bhutto’s assassination.
EXACTLY a week after Saudi Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdel-Aziz al-Sheikh called for global peace in his Haj sermon from the pulpit of Masjid-e-Nimra in hallowed Arafat, the world has heard a similar desire being expressed from the venerated Vatican balcony by Pope Benedict XVI in his Christmas message. These are unmistakable voices of interfaith consensus on the need for peaceful coexistence coming from the highest offices of the two religions. These must be respected for what they truly represent: a sincere yearning for a world free of hatred, discord, militancy, destruction, injustice and misery. Back in the Cold War days of bipolar existence and mutually guaranteed destruction, the world seemed poised to explode at the dreaded button’s push. Nothing could be worse, one thought at the time, but how strange it is that the world is a more frightening place today than it ever was. If anything, the end of the Cold War has only led to an era when confrontation is taking place along religious rather than political fault lines. These are at present confined to areas that have been described as the “tortured regions” by the Pope. But what makes the situation so hopeless is that no resolution of the problem is in sight given the manner in which the world leaders are conducting their affairs.
The psyche of the radical being what it is, aggression has its own self-sustaining momentum that does not acknowledge the human desire for peace. It is a pity that the forces of global politics are only pushing the extremists to the wall with policies that are more exclusive than inclusive. While they continue their crusade in the name of preserving the planet, there are others who worry about whether in the years ahead there will be a planet to preserve at all. Against this backdrop, we cannot but add our humble voice to the prayers of both the Sheikh and the Pope seeking divine intervention to help the political leaders have the wisdom and courage to seek and find humane, just and lasting solutions. We may also wish to remind them that an end to conflict is a fair target, but, as former US president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously said, one has to look for an “end to the beginning of all wars.”
IN times of utter despair like the one that Pakistan is experiencing now, the only thing that can save the day is the human spirit working selflessly for collective good. That some individuals should stoop so low as to take advantage of these desperate circumstances is disgusting to say the least. But it seems that a few among us feel no shame in making some quick bucks while all others agonise and suffer. Since Benazir Bhutto’s tragic death on Thursday, those in Lahore who need to keep moving on the city’s roads to deliver essential services or to attend to personal emergencies are being swindled by the sellers of motor vehicle fuels. Petrol, diesel and liquefied gas are being sold at double their normal prices, not just raising taxi and rickshaw fares by the same ratio but also making it expensive for people to move in their personal vehicles. There is no doubting the fact that fuel outlets have been major targets for arsonists in many parts of the country and there has been a virtually complete shutdown of gas and petrol stations in Lahore. There is certainly some risk involved in keeping fuel outlets open but if somebody has already taken that risk, they should not put an unreasonably high risk premium on their wares.
The ultimate victims of this highly questionable behaviour and shameless profiteering are generally people either trying to help others or themselves in need for help urgently — with doctors and patients at the top of the list of those requiring fuel, sometimes to cater to emergencies.
It is in grave situations like this that nations as well as individuals underscore their humanity and the spirit of camaraderie. And those — nations and individuals alike —who can rise above narrow selfish interests in such testing times, are sure to find a prominent place in the annals. But those hankering after worldly gains and pandering to their base emotions and greed while all the rest are traumatised should be ready for being and remaining condemned. They might have made hay while the sun shone for them but at the same time they have put a permanent black blot on themselves — at least morally speaking.
The shortfall is blamed on two factors. The first one is the low release of water from the dams, which will affect the amount of hydroelectric power that can be generated in the country. The second is the suspension of gas supplies, which will affect the amount of power that can be generated from thermal power plants.
PepCo’s load-shedding programme is projected to persist for several weeks. This has the potential for causing significant economic harm. As shown by the experience of many other developing countries, it can easily knock a few percentage points off the nation’s Gross Domestic Product.
PepCo and others involved in planning the future evolution of the power system need to get out of this habit of ‘fighting fires’ and putting out emergencies and focus instead on developing a systematic programme for managing customer demand. Such a demand-side management (DSM) programme should include near-term, medium-term and long-term measures.
In the near term, informational programmes can be used to induce behavioural change among customers. In the medium term, financial incentives and cash rebates can be used to improve the energy efficiency of appliances, industrial processes and buildings. And, over the long term, economically rational price signals can be used to balance demand and supply.
A comprehensive DSM portfolio would include several elements: a mass media campaign, broadly defined financial incentives, targeted financial incentives, quotas on energy use, financial incentives for curtailing peak loads and time-based pricing programmes.
A mass media campaign: Information can be the most effective way to convey the scarcity of power resources to all customers, broadcast through a variety of media channels, including radio, TV and newspapers, and further emphasised by the involvement of leading celebrities. During its power crisis in the years 2000-01, California introduced a ‘Flex Your Power’ campaign to create customer awareness about the shortage and to create a culture of energy conservation. Surveys indicated that customers took a number of behavioural actions such as turning off lights, not using their air conditioners or raising the thermostat set-point, unplugging computers and appliances and watching less TV. The hydro-dependent power system of New Zealand was faced with a power shortage in the year 2001. It introduced a ‘10 for 10’ campaign designed to reduce power consumption by 10 per cent over a 10-week period. It worked. When a hydro-based crisis reappeared two years later, the campaign was reactivated. Celebrities were recruited to remind the people of the drought, the need to conserve energy and to list specific actions that customers could take in that regard.
Broad-based financial incentives: During its energy crisis, California introduced a programme called Energy 20/20 that gave customers an extra 20 per cent reduction in their energy bill if they reduced their energy usage by 20 per cent compared to a baseline period. This programme reduced power demand by 14 per cent.
Targeted financial incentives: The Ceylon Electricity Board bulk-purchased compact fluorescent lamps and made them available to customers at below-market prices. In Victoria, Australia, incentives were used to promote high-efficiency chillers in office buildings and other commercial facilities.
Quotas on energy consumption: Faced with a power shortage brought about by a drought, Brazil established mandatory targets for saving energy. Most households had to reduce usage by 20 per cent. Industries and government buildings had targets of 15-25 per cent while public lighting had a target of 35 per cent. Customers who did not meet the targets were subject to interruption of supply. In addition, consumption in excess of the quota was subject to price increases ranging from 50-200 per cent. To assist poor customers, the government purchased 5.6 million compact fluorescent lamps and gave them as a grant. The programme reduced energy consumption by 20 per cent. Later on, when faced with a power shortage, Argentina successfully implemented a similar programme.
Financial incentives for curtailing peak loads: The utility provides incentives to customers who are willing to reduce load on short notice. They require the installation of new digital, interval meters and are most often implemented for larger commercial and industrial customers. In Western Australia, a resource shortfall was triggered in February 2004 by extremely hot temperatures and restrictions of gas pipeline capacity. The utility, after holding discussions with its 250 largest customers, introduced a programme that targeted customers with peak summer demands greater than 500kW and a load-reduction potential of at least 200kW per site. One-to-one meetings were held with customers and they were provided information packets to identify savings opportunities. In addition, customers were offered an incentive payment based on the amount of load curtailed during the top 50 hours. The programme was very successful in meeting it goals and achieved high levels of customer satisfaction.
Time-based pricing programmes to reduce peak loads: These include time-of-use, critical-peak pricing and real-time pricing rates. Such programmes can achieve load reductions in the range of 10 to 20 per cent of peak demand. Since these often involve the change-out of existing electricity meters with digital, interval meters, they take more time to implement than the previous programme options and are best viewed as an important but long-term option.
The precise mix of DSM programmes that PepCo should consider offering its customers will depend on the magnitude and duration of the shortfall. A mass media campaign can be very effective in reducing demand in a very short amount of time. It does not take much time to develop a sophisticated media strategy. In the messaging, it is vitally important not to blame consumers for using too much energy and equally important to convince them that their individual actions will make a difference. If the shortage occurs during peak hours, consumers must also be informed when to conserve. And, of course, consumers need to be educated in how they can conserve. Humour is an important asset in such communications, as demonstrated in New Zealand where one of the ads featured the line, “If you sing in the shower, choose shorter songs.”
In the near term, the best strategy for PepCo may be to focus on the large commercial and industrial customers who account for about half of power consumption and who may be best able to respond to programmatic incentives and information. However, over the long haul, it would be useful to involve all customer classes and to develop a long-term DSM plan.
It is important to set realistic expectations and recognise that saving electricity in a hurry is always going to be a somewhat chaotic activity, with many people and groups scrambling over each other and trying to take the credit for what works and to shift the blame on to others for what does not work. Strong, credible leadership can increase the probability of success by making sufficient resources available to the project team charged with implementing the programme. Even if the process is somewhat messy, the outcome will be vastly superior to load-shedding.
The writer, a defence analyst and energy economist , is the author of “Rethinking the National Security of Pakistan”.
faruqui@pacbell.net
After Benazir Bhutto
BENAZIR Bhutto was a flawed and undeniably courageous leader. Her return to Pakistan two months ago raised hopes that her country might find its way toward democracy and stability. Her assassination on Thursday is yet one more horrifying reminder of how far Pakistan is from both — and how close it is to the brink.
Ms Bhutto’s death leaves the Bush administration with no visible strategy for extricating Pakistan from its crisis or rooting out Al Qaeda and the Taliban, which have made the country their most important rear base.
Betting America’s security (and Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal) on an unaccountable dictator, President Pervez Musharraf, did not work. Betting it on a back-room alliance between that dictator and Ms Bhutto, who had hoped to win a third try as prime minister next month, is no longer possible….
That means a relatively brief delay to allow Ms Bhutto’s party, probably the country’s largest, to choose a new candidate for prime minister and mount an abbreviated campaign. Washington must also demand that Pakistan’s other main opposition leader, Nawaz Sharif, be allowed to run. And it must insist that Mr Musharraf reinstate the impartial Supreme Court judges he fired last month in order to block them from overturning his rigged election.
Mr Musharraf is stubborn. Washington will need to send the same message to Pakistan’s military leaders, perhaps the ex-general’s only remaining backers…. The Bush administration has to rethink more than just its unhealthy and destructive enabling of Mr Musharraf. It also must take a hard look at the billions it is funnelling to Pakistan’s military.
The United States cannot afford to have Pakistan unravel any further. The lesson of the last six years is that authoritarian leaders — even ones backed with billions in American aid — don’t make reliable allies, and they can’t guarantee security. — (Dec 28)
Bhutto’s legacy
Bhutto was not an ideal leader. During her two tenures as the Muslim world’s first female prime minister, she lied to the world about the nature of Pakistan’s nuclear programme. She led, for the most part, like a strongman. But there was a reason why so many Pakistanis yearned for her return. There was a reason why she was a leading contender to be prime minister again. Bhutto was extraordinarily courageous, and the causes that she served, however poorly — a secular government, an end to terrorism — remain in dire need of courageous voices. — (Dec 28)
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