October 1, 2007	Monday	Ramazan 18, 1428

NEW YORK: For Barack Obama it was a daring move: hold a rally last week in the heart of New York, the fortress home of his rival, Senator Hillary Clinton.

It seemed to pay off. As he bounded onto the stage in Manhattan’s Washington Square in front of a packed crowd of 25,000, he beamed his broad smile and shouted: ‘Look at this crowd!’

Obama’s gamble seemed to have worked. It generated a swath of newsprint in the Democratic stronghold of the city and was designed to send a message to Clinton that she could not even count on the support of her home turf.

Yet the day after the rally — at which those attending surrendered their email addresses — a message from the Obama campaign popped into inboxes across New York. ‘Thanks for coming out last night,’ it said, before adding: ‘We’re still shy of our goal of 350,000 people giving to the campaign.’

For the fact is Obama’s campaign appears to be caught in the doldrums. Beneath all the endless public appearances, television interviews and the hype of ‘Obama-mania’ lies a story of a campaign that has completely failed to budge Clinton out of her position as frontrunner. Indeed, Obama has barely moved in the polls since he exploded onto the political scene when he announced his candidacy earlier this year. It is Clinton’s poll numbers that have recently been nudging ever higher, not Obama’s.

Last week Obama — and the other Democratic politicians vying for the presidential nomination — were widely expected to turn on Clinton at the latest public debate. Held in the key state of New Hampshire, it was seen as a chance to knock Clinton off her perch. Yet it passed largely without incident.

A survey of recent polls shows Clinton in commanding form compared with all of her rivals. The most recent national polls show her with a lead over Obama that ranges from 14 per cent to 22 per cent. A Gallup survey had her on a whopping 47 per cent, against Obama’s 25 per cent and John Edwards’s meagre 11 per cent. No other Democrat scored more than 5 per cent. Clinton is also ahead by about 20 points in New Hampshire and has recently moved ahead of Edwards in the key first voting state of Iowa, where Edwards has been virtually camped out for the past two years.

In fact, Obama has not led the polls in any state recently, not even South Carolina, where many black voters are expected to back him in his quest to be America’s first black President. That has raised serious questions over whether Obama can actually appeal to black voters. Some of them have been put off by questions over the ‘American blackness’ of Obama’s background, owing to his mixed parentage of a white Kansan mother and a Kenyan father. In the meantime, Clinton has sought to capitalise on the still huge popularity among many blacks of her husband’s time in the Oval Office.

However, many experts warn that it is far too early to write Obama off, pointing out that there are three months to go before actual voting takes place. Obama’s campaign still has many positives. He has raised more money faster than any other Democratic candidate in history, including 75,000 new campaign donors since June alone. He also has a huge and committed campaign organisation, including twice as many offices in Iowa as any other candidate. His public rallies are always attended by thousands of supporters, who show an enthusiasm for their candidate which beats that enjoyed by any of his rivals.

Campaign officials play down any sort of worry, saying that a good showing in Iowa will change the nature of the race. But in truth the Obama campaign has hit rocky shores. Though Obama is a powerful public speaker, he is also gaffe-prone — unlike Clinton who seems never to put a foot wrong. However, the most likely reason for Obama’s failure to break through with ordinary Democratic voters lies not with Obama’s failings, but with the successes of the Clinton campaign.

Certainly Clinton has dealt easily with all her challengers so far. Aside from Obama, the only other serious contender appears to be Edwards. The former senator has run a widely praised populist campaign focusing on issues of poverty, labour and the working poor.

Time is now running out. Iowa is shaping up not just to be Obama’s first stand against Clinton. It could also be his last.—Dawn/The Observer News Service