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BELGRADE: A Russian roadblock at the United Nations means negotiators must try one more time to find a compromise on Kosovo even though their chances of success are no better than they have been for years.
Russian backing for Serbia’s opposition to the independence of its breakaway province has forced the West to step back from a Security Council vote on the issue and try to resolve it in a fresh round of talks over the next four months.
The talks, led by a troika of European Union, United States and Russian envoys, are expected to start “this week, next week, very soon”, according to an EU diplomatic source.
The Kosovo daily Zeri said UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon would make the announcement this week.
Whenever the negotiations begin, no one believes a settlement is close.
There is no sign of any give in the diametrically opposed demands which doomed 13 months of talks under UN envoy Martti Ahtisaari last year.
He proposed independence as “the only viable” alternative.
The West agreed.
The demands of Kosovo’s 90 per cent Albanian majority are clear enough: they want independence and will accept open-ended international supervision of their treatment of the mainly Serb minority and its cultural, religious and historic sites.
Serbian demands also look clear: no independence, no change of borders, no loss of sovereignty. But Serbia seems ready to tolerate protectorate status indefinitely, as long as its legal title to Kosovo is not threatened.
It does not propose to march officials back into Kosovo to resume the one-sided rule interrupted eight years ago, when Nato and the United Nations took over after an air bombardment by the West forced out the troops of strongman Slobodan Milosevic.
A source in Serbia’s Ministry for Kosovo said what Belgrade foresees is a demilitarised zone, patrolled by EU troops “who might stay up to 20 years if necessary”.
If reconciliation eventually led to greater integration “the Albanians would get a certain number of parliament seats as a minority and would be able to vote for their representatives”.
CITIZENS OF SERBIA, OR NOT? In Washington last Friday, Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic offered “broadest possible self-governance for Kosovo’s Albanians, with internationally guaranteed administration of domestic affairs totally unimpeded by Belgrade”.
Earlier this month, however, he said Serbia would be willing to accept Kosovo Albanians as full citizens, voting in national elections. It would be “a seismic shock” to Serbian politics, he was quoted as saying in Madrid “but I say yes to it”.
Kosovo’s Albanians — if they voted — would have a hefty impact on a Serb electorate of 5.5 million, and could hardly fail to enter government. Most Serbs would reject that.
Kostunica resists Kosovo independence on the grounds that it would violate the international law of sovereignty. Russia says it backs him for precisely the same reason, concerned it would set a dangerous precedent if independence were granted.
It was Milosevic’s bellicose nationalism which fanned the Albanian revolt in Kosovo in the 1990s.
Independent estimates say 7,500-12,000 civilians, mostly Albanians, died during Serbia’s war against guerrillas.
Kostunica says that does not entitle them to secession.
The troika that must try to undo the deadlock has now been named. German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger will speak for the EU, foreign ministry Balkans chief Aleksandar Botsan-Kharchenko for Russia and veteran envoy Frank Wisner for the United States.
Some commentators say the stakes have out-grown Kosovo.
In a weekend editorial warning against “Western failure”, the Washington Post blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “cynical stance” that aims to isolate Serbia from the EU, make it dependent on Moscow, split the EU and thwart the US.
In the coming four months it would be up to Washington, the paper said, to make sure Putin did not succeed in driving a wedge through the 27-member EU, which must overcome the doubts of half a dozen states if the only way out of the mess ends up being recognition of a unilateral declaration of independence.—Reuters
