July 13, 2007	Friday	Jamadi-us-Sani 27, 1428

KARACHI, July 12: Official international trade statistics for the month of June 2007 and for entire fiscal 2006-07 have been delayed because of the location of Pakistan Revenue Automated Limited (PRAL) in the vicinity of Lal Masjid and curfew area.

Normally, the Federal Bureau of Statistics obtains data from PRAL and release trade aggregate trade figures by 10th of every month. Detailed information on category-wise and item specific import and export figures are then released by second or third week of the next month.

The FBS officials in Karachi and Islamabad indicate the possibility of release of trade figures by Friday or Saturday. These figures are keenly awaited because a year long picture of import and export trade will be available.

The expectations are that the trade imbalance in 2006-07 is about $14 billion with imports at over $30 billion and exports about $17 billion.

The month of June was dominated by many events that apparently hampered production and was feared to have caused a slowdown in export.

Rains lashed Karachi and parts of Balochistan, which devastated vast areas. Many parts of Balochistan are still inundated with flash floods. Sindh and NWFP also came under heavy rains and severe damages.

Along with these natural disasters came the man-made events, the Chief Justice reference and the abduction of Chinese by the Lal Masjid incumbents. All these factors have affected economic performance. In the overall exports, textiles have apparently done better than non- textiles as its growth is expected around 6 per cent against 3 per cent of non textile. In imports, oil, food, mobile phones and autos dominate. More than $2 billion worth of imports are of unspecified items.

Export movement in the current month July also appears to be slow because of the fallout of Lal Masjid episode that gripped the whole country for more than a week. Even now when the episode has come to an end, the after shocks are expected as religious parties plan mass mobilisation.

The protest of the clergy, the continuation of Chief Justice Case and the recent launching of a broad-based political alliance in London are casting their shadows on the country’s economy. It is affecting the working of the federal and provincial government’s offices and also the business.

Market reports suggest that people are holding back money and are avoiding big transactions wherever possible. The sowing of kharif crop is complete and plantation of three main crops is in advance stage.

“All eyes are now towards skies as too much or little rains can damage the crop,” a textile leader said.