KARACHI, June 2: The Sindh government is preparing a budget of about Rs230 billion plus for the next fiscal year, which is likely to include a development outlay of Rs45 to Rs50 billion and a promise of giving employment to 25,000 youths in the provincial government services.

“The budget size will be approximately 25 per cent more than the current fiscal year’s budget of Rs193 billion with 30 per cent more development funds than the revised development outlay of Rs35 billion during 2006-07,” a well-placed and authoritative source in the Sindh government disclosed.

The original size of the current year’s Annual Development Programme was Rs32 billion, which was raised to Rs35 billion.

June 15 is the tentative date for presentation of the Sindh budget.

Next year, being an election year, is of special significance for the ruling coalition in Sindh as it is for the ruling alliance in Islamabad and PML (Q) in Punjab and sources say that strategies are being worked out to pool all available budgetary and non-budget resources to obtain best results.

Sources claim that the Sindh and Punjab governments have huge surplus cash funds — more than Rs100 billion - in their accounts with the State Bank of Pakistan. Professional planners and political brains have been deployed to work out schemes based on these funds to win over the support of the population.

The planners focus on next fiscal year’s budget is on glittering and attractive schemes and projects to get support rather than on sectors where work is slow and results take time to come. “It is an entirely election-oriented budget with all known gimmicks,” the source said.

There will be gimmicks for the rural areas and for the urban areas. There is a Mega City plan for Karachi to be launched with fanfare amidst a media blitz. Then there is a White Revolution plan for rural areas by promoting livestock. In fact this plan was launched early this fiscal year with no visible signs of any improvement in dairy farming.

For the next fiscal year’s budget, the federal government has contemptuously ignored the pleas made by the Central Board of Revenue to allow it collection of agricultural income tax.

The suggestion was that instead of provincial governments, the CBR would collect tax from the agriculturists and then pass it on to the respective provincial governments on purely collection basis.

The CBR officials made a detailed presentation to President Pervez Musharraf with an assurance that it can raise collection to Rs50 to 60 billion instead of less than Rs2 billion at present.

In 1977, when late Bhutto introduced tax on the agricultural income, the same collection mode was adopted in 1977-78. But after taking over on July 5, 1977, one of the first actions of General Zia ul Haq was to repeal agricultural income tax without any announcement and he won over the support of all big landlords in Sindh, Punjab, Balochistan and NWFP.

The big landlords in Pakistan did not take time in abandoning Bhutto. ”How can Pervez Musharraf be unaware of Zia ul Haq’s tactics,” the source said.

Another feature of next fiscal year’s budget is the distribution of resources on the basis of the decision given by President General Pervez Musharraf. The federal government did not give any hint of forming a new National Finance Commission. The Muttahida Qaumi Movement, the dominant partner of Sindh coalition also did not raise the issue. “Election year is not the appropriate time to raise NFC issue,” the source said.

“Agriculture is getting all attention in resource allocation during next fiscal year,” the well-placed source said and pointed out that livestock farming will get a substantial amount.

-----“Livestock farming was given focus in the current fiscal year’s budget also,” recalled an observer who pointed out that the milk price had increased to Rs34 a litre from Rs28 a litre last year. “We can only pray and hope that history does not repeat itself next year and milk price in Karachi goes to Rs40 a litre,” he said.

Revival of closed 7,000 primary schools in Sindh is another issue to get attention. In Sindh there are 15 primary schools for every secondary school. The government wants to bring down this ratio to five primary schools for one secondary school.

Plans are being made to upgrade a large number of primary schools. But how the quality of education will be improved is not elaborated. At present, the constructed structures of schools, hospitals and community centres are being used for livestock pens, parlours and even police stations in the rural areas.

----Sindh Coastal Highway project will also get substantial amount of allocation in next budget. It is a 325 kilometres long highway that will connect Karachi, with Bhambhore, Mirpur Sakrand, Gharo, Keti Bunder, Ali Bunder and Nagar Parkar. Total cost of the project is Rs8 billion and its construction will open up coastal areas of the province.

The next fiscal year also marks the fifth and final year of the present coalition in Sindh. Since 2003-04 till 06-07, the Sindh government invested Rs88 billion development funds. Karachi still remains half-dug and half-excavated city. Even the main business districts are inaccessible.

Hyderabad, Sukkur and other second tier towns of Sindh are in no better positions. The rural Sindh is primitive and poor. In a few rural districts, the poverty ratio is said to be 90 per cent in Sindh.

With an indicated Rs50 billion development investment in the next fiscal year, the total development cost comes to Rs138 billion during the term of this government.

Two chief ministers took turn one after the other. ”None of the two provided leadership and there was no direction of development investment,” an observer said.