Civil war in Iraq would confront US with stark choice

WASHINGTON: Warnings by top US generals of a growing threat of civil war in Iraq are confronting policymakers with sombre questions about the future of a costly three-year-old mission to stabilise the country.

Analysts said civil war would force the United States to choose between withdrawing its troops and taking sides in what could become a wider regional conflict.

Officials insist the violence between Shias and Sunnis is still confined mainly to Baghdad and is not yet ‘a classic civil war’.

But the sectarian violence is ‘as bad as I’ve seen it, in Baghdad in particular’, and civil war is a possibility, the top US general in the Middle East, John Abizaid, warned Congress on Thursday.

His assessment was only the latest sign of high-level concern that the situation has drifted rapidly toward civil war since national elections last December.

Britain’s outgoing ambassador to Iraq is reported to have advised his government that ‘a low-intensity civil war’ was more likely than a transition to a stable democracy.

Last week, US commanders ordered more troops to Baghdad after a wave of kidnappings, assassinations, massacres and bombings engulfed an Iraqi-led effort to secure the capital.

Gen Abizaid said the situation in Baghdad was at a ‘decisive’ juncture but he believed Iraqis would ultimately compromise ‘because the alternative is so stark’.

Senators wanted to know what civil war would mean for the mission of the 133,000 US troops in Iraq.

“I’m reluctant to speculate about that,” Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said. “It could lead to a discussion that suggests that we presume that’s going to happen.”

Senator John Warner, the Republican chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, warned that if Iraq does descend into civil war, the administration may have to seek a new mandate from the US Congress.

“If that were to come about, I think the American people would ask, ‘Well, which side are we going to fight on? Or do we fight both? And did we send our troops there to do that? We thought we sent them there to liberate the Iraqis, which we have done at a great sacrifice, 2,500-plus,” he said in an interview with PBS television.

Independent analysts said civil war was not a foregone conclusion and that military action and political moves could yet contain and suppress the violence.

Much depends, though, on how susceptible an already weak political centre in Iraq is to pressure from both Sunni and Shia extremists behind the violence.

If it leads to the collapse of Iraq’s central government and security forces along sectarian lines, the US mission would become untenable, some analysts believe.

“Unsettling though it may sound, the United States could end up with no alternative to pulling out of a country that had degenerated into chaos,” said Loren Thompson, director of the Lexington Institute, a Washington group that specialises in military analysis.

“It seems improbable, but our role in Iraq is to build democracy so if the centre doesn’t hold, there is nothing left to defend,” he said.

‘HUGE DEFEAT’: A withdrawal of US forces in the midst of a civil war would be ‘a huge defeat for American diplomacy, in fact possibly the greatest defeat ever’, he said.

“However, there is no point in sticking around to preside over a meltdown. If a country is going to divide along sectarian lines, it would be very dubious strategy to try to prevent a natural process from unfolding,” he said.

Other analysts believe, however, that too much is at stake in Iraq for the United States to abandon the fight.

A US pullout would mean skyrocketing oil prices, the creation of a safe haven for extremists and leaving Iran as the dominant power in the region, according to this line of reasoning.

Andrew Krepinevich, head of the Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, said the administration would be forced to choose sides in a civil war, and it would not be alone.

Arab states dominated by Sunnis, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, would likely back the Sunnis, and Iran would step up its support for Shias, setting the stage for a regional conflict, he said.

Gen Abizaid, who said he had rarely seen the Middle East ‘so unsettled or so volatile’, suggested such a broader conflict already is unfolding.

He highlighted Iran’s support for Shia militias in Lebanon and Gaza as well as in Iraq.

“There’s an obvious struggle in the region between moderates and extremists that touches every aspect of life,” he said. —AFP

Rains have evoked disgust, despair

THERE are many ways of beginning with the rain theme, but one is tempted to fall for the disgust option. Indeed it has been that kind of a frustration and sense of failure that drives one to view the monsoon rain that we have had. There is some sunshine in town as one writes, but I am disinclined to view it as light at the end of the tunnel.

Tunnel? As citizens of the Sindh capital, which has just experienced a political storm, we are far more inclined to look at the underpasses. Underpasses under construction and the one already completed. I don’t need to get into the details which have flooded the newspapers --- and the electronic media (TV images have been scary of course. But real life experiences of driving in the dark in knee-deep water, and with power failures around can be a ghostly experience.)

The story of what happened to the KPT Clifton underpass in its maiden debut when the rains came is a controversy bordering on a scandal. Citizens, who have actually come out to protest or suffered silently in their homes, hope and demand quite rightly that there should be an investigation that should be made public. Either some heads should roll or the public should be informed (read educated) that this was no one’s fault. That it was an act of nature. Yes, nature alone.

But most citizens believe that this is not an issue to be viewed with any leniency. In fact as the rain drenched city, limps back to normal (pardon the cliché if you will) Karachiites soaked in despair and disgust wonder whether any lessons have been learnt. For example, is it a fair and feasible premise to have that it does not rain in the city. And when it does we will get over it, eventually. But at what price, no one bothers.

The national psyche seems geared or pushed to a point where we believe that catastrophes and calamities and disasters are acts of nature, and that there is little that man can do. Let nature prevail.

A Karachiite who believes in the value of research and data, and of course it should be authentic, suggested that there should be some data compiled and created on what has been the loss of life and property, (and the economic loss on the aggregate) in the last few decades. Somehow, while there has been effort at getting the city ready for rain, it has been a meagre exercise in reality. Like other forms of preparedness for emergencies, we are unprepared for rain. Once the monsoon season is over, we forget all about it. Almost like a natural bent of mind. It is a severe example, even extreme, but even the East Pakistan tragedy we prefer to underplay, over look, and even contend that this is how it was destined to be.

Those of us who have lived in the city for a lifetime (spread over two to five decades) will easily recollect that there have been terrible and traumatic times when the monsoon rain has come at times. Hundreds and hundreds of people have lost their lives, or suffered and survived major injuries and disabilities. No data of any kind of this aspect of Karachi life.

Offhand I recollect the rains that destabilised Karachi in July 1967 for example. Or I recollect the never ending downpour that hit Karachi on June 30, 1977 and that spell continued for a few days. A couple of hundreds lost their lives, dozens of cars were stranded all over the city, property was damaged, and either due to the wetness or the dampness and the list is long. The authorities concerned at all levels made the most moving statements and gave the most committed of assurances that Karachi would be ready for rains. Lessons have been learnt. That, for example roads would be built better, and that rainwater would not flood them and that the state owned KESC would be made strong and reliable. Once again the list of rhetoric, promises and commitments is long.As this is the month of August, it is pertinent to mention that we quote the Quaid-i-Azam so frequently in what appears to be a way of getting inspired to become ‘strong and reliable’. Yet when it comes to action, we don’t deliver. This somehow obliquely reminds me of the KPT underpass once again. I am reminded of the horrifying manner in which the rainwater flooded the roads after the Clifton bridge, and at the Teen Talwar, (three swords) which are meant to remind and inspire the citizen of the Quaid’s quote about unity, faith and discipline. Ironically, we went past the Teen Talwar and some of us remembered these only toe fathom the extent to which we had wavered from them.

While the thought keeps cropping up whether Karachi and its multiple civic and other authorities have learnt any lessons from this monsoon, other thoughts go out to the other underpasses being constructed in Liaquatabad and Nazimabad — or the overhead bridges being built or planned. There are some worrying news reports in the media about them, as well as the Clifton underpass. One of these reports appeared in this daily on August 4th (Grand designs falter before ground realities), and one hopes that due clarifications will come soon.

Karachiites have braved through some very trying times, when it comes to ground realities. What should have been a pleasant season turned into an ugly mess. Not just with roads flooded with dirty water, but KESC disappointing as feared even by the KESC chief, phones going dead, individual homes being affected on a city-wide basis, and life generally turning even more difficult.

While one does not know whether there will be more rain, there appears to be a certainty about the fate of roads being washed away, or broken, or dotted with pot holes, (find your own description, you know).

While one is sure that we will have familiar but huge problems in the weeks ahead, most Karachiites disbelieve that the concerned authorities will act promptly. For instance, there will be the usual blame game between the various institutions and agencies that own and manage the city. This is yet another fall out that we have seen once again. It has been almost shocking to have seen the extent to which the KPT chief and the Karachi Nazim were divided on who is responsible for the KPT underpass related list of problems that both the residents and citizens suffered. In fact I agree with a citizen who said that it was almost a humiliation of citizens when rainwater flooded Bath Island and Clifton — Karachi’s posh areas. But there was one citizen who said that perhaps for the first time, society’s rich have been made to realise otherwise the vulnerability of the poor, the low income groups.

Of course there were children who generally enjoyed the rain, and the fact that the schools are closed till Aug 16 made them feel better. The decision not to reopen the schools on Aug 1 seems to have been an act of kindness, it appears! How children would have been traumatised if caught in schools or trapped on the city’s roads in a downpour is unimaginable.