May 8, 2006	Monday	Rabi-us-Sani 9, 1427

THE surface water from rivers is the primary source of water in Pakistan while infiltration from rivers, canals, watercourses, and fields is the main source of groundwater, which is a secondary resource. The evaporation rate in Sindh and Balochistan is greater than Punjab and NWFP and hence the water from scanty rains is of negligible use.

The river inflows are unreliable. The highest water availability (1922 to 2004) was recorded as 186.79 MAF in the year 1959-60 and the minimum water availability of 95.99 maf occurred in 2001-02. There is enormous gap in seasonal flows; viz., 84 per cent of flow occurs in Kharif and the rest in Rabi. Originally the irrigation system of Indus Basin, including all rivers, eastern as well as western, was designed according to run of the river.

Some canals were perennial and others non-perennial so as to utilize as much water as possible through inundation canals, weirs and barrages. The system took care of the requirement based upon the lowest figures of inflows ever recorded and the fluctuations were automatically adjusted in absence of human regulation like of dams.

At the time of independence, the canal withdrawals were about 64 MAF. The balance of 31.99 MAF, based upon lowest inflows, could have been considered as a safe limit for water usage, but the Indus Basin Treaty allowed India to make full use of Eastern River waters (33 MAF) and hence the Pakistan became water scarce by 1.11 MAF. Eastern River Utilization by India prior to Indus Basin Treaty was eight maf but it got hold of 33 MAF and began to use additional water in extra-territorial area of river valleys. This limitation on water availability cannot be averted through storage dams as being debated in Pakistan today.

Pakistan is calculating its water availability on average basis, closing its eyes of insight that availability may not be available to the adapted water uses that we call historical and future commitments. An addendum of 10-daily withdrawals to Water Accord 1991 is the expression of this thoughtlessness. This has resulted in, off and on water shortages of which the lower riparians become ultimate sufferers.

Dams are facility like banks from where water can be drawn as and when required. Pakistan has experienced the water storages paucity because there is no carry over capacity for the next season - what to talk of next year, as we have extended water usage beyond limits. Never-the-less, the water resource management is more important and in the interest of the country instead of creation of conflicts. When Pakistan can sacrifice 35 MAF to India, its own provinces can adopt pragmatic approach to water resources management.

Water and power development authority: Water and Power Development Authority is responsible for development of water resources and is supposed to be an agency of high excellence and integrity in computation of water resources, their management and utilization. Wapda has not made water availability computations as a regular feature of their activities since its inception, nor have they developed any standard format for computations of water availability.

To the technical committee on Water Resources (TCWR), it has made different presentations at different times. This could create the confusion more confounded.

Wapda’s Vision 2025 Programme is its latest document. However it does not give computations of water availability but mentions investments for storage reservoirs with capacity of 59.43 MAF, presumably to identify the list of potential storage sites, without any consideration of feasibility of each project and the availability of water.

Wapda has presented its computation on different criteria (upstream/downstream), with varying figures for water availability. In average water availability on downstream approach basis, it has shown a figure of 14.95 MAF for further development; on upstream approach basis 14.23 MAF are shown and subsequently the figure on latest water availability on downstream basis has been shown 19.1 MAF.

Thus Wapda has given two separate computations of water availability on downstream basis for obvious reasons to please or to misguide the decision makers. In fact net water availability on upstream basis works to 6.43 MAF and that on downstream basis 7.15 maf.

The Wapda’s computations are gross non-observance of government policies. The database period adopted by Wapda for water availability computations has been different at different times in contravention of the latest policy documents of the federal government i.e. Perspective Plan 2001-2011 approved by the National Economic Council (NEC), and the National Water Policy Report by federal government (1922 to date).

Thus adoption of any base period other than that stated in federal government policy documents and most of the earlier computations by WAPDA itself are not justified in any case. The glaring examples are variation in computation of water availability from Eastern River Inflows- no mention was made of the regeneration of water within Pakistan, possible inflow from the Eastern rivers from India or no expected contribution of inflows from Eastern Rivers from India.

Likewise, Wapda has adopted different figures flows for downstream Kotri. In their first water availability computations in 1992 (after the signing of Water Accord), Wapda adopted a figure of 10.0 maf for outflow to sea as indicated in the Water Accord. But in their subsequent water availability computation of 1994, Wapda has shown the figure of 5.8 maf in the presentation in the conference held at Bhurban Wapda mentioned the figure of 6.5 maf for outflow to sea, the latest computation of water availability in their presentation to the technical committee on Water Resources, WAPDA has again indicated the figure of 5.8 maf.

The Water Accord provides a figure of 10 MAF pending the studies of outflow to sea, which are in progress. Moreover Ten Year Perspective Plan 2001-2011 approved by the National Economic Council (NEC) also indicate the figure of 10 maf. Also in the presentation by the then minister for Water and Power at Pakistan Development Forum on 18th March 2004, the figure of 10 maf was indicated before donor agencies and the federal government document “National Water Policy 2005” also indicates the figures of 10 maf for outflow to sea in any arrangement of study or observation.

Intervention: President Musharraf has arrived at the conclusion that come what may, big dams are the only solution to the water problem. This is one-sided approach. Big dams are just one alternative. There could be many more, but the most important of all is the operation and management of the system, under all situations, according to availability of shortage/surplus storable water, as stipulated in the Accord.

Pre-partition scenario: Sindh and un-divided Punjab signed an agreement in 1945 for allocation of Indus waters. Punjab was restricted not to take any extra drop of water unless the water requirements of Sindh were fully met. The history is witness that Sindh’s rights were violated and the federal government did not take any notice of notice, except an off and on advice to avoid such occurrence.

Present system: The present system is supposed to operate under Water Accord 1991. This accord provides for the following allocations of water based upon the availability of 117.35 maf. The distribution is specific and based upon 10-daily withdrawals by the stakeholders. It stands like this:

Punjab 55.94 maf

Sindh 48.76 maf

NWFP 08.78 maf

Balochistan 03.84 maf

The paragraphs 14(a) and paragraph 14(b) of the Accord provide for adjustments according to water excess or its shortage. This is being violated since 1994 in the garb of an annulled decision.

Likewise Punjab claims exclusive right over Jhelum and Chenab water (Indus Zone and Jhelum-Chenab Zone) and yet we talk of water distribution on Pakistan basis. Punjab is right as far as NWFP is concerned because water does not flow upwards, but it is wrong when water share of NWFP from Jhelum-Chenab Zone is denied to or compensated for it.

The water needs of Punjab and its water availability (rivers, rains, tubewells and regeneration) if studied will reveal that it is utilizing water much more than its needs and contributing to waterlogging and soil salinity calling for investment like those in LBOD.

Besides this, Mangla dam operation creates the problem for Sindh. Reservoirs are water banks. Water is stored when water required is less and released when water required is more. The Wapda operates the dams. It thinks that Mangla reservoir must be filled up to 80 per cent by June 30, (1180 ft. level) otherwise it will not be filled to maximum conservation level of 1202 ft. It is feared that if this level is not achieved, there would be shortage of water in Northern Punjab canals during coming Rabi season. This is said to have been experienced for nine out of 40 years of Mangla reservoirs existence. Besides this, Mangla dam is filled beyond its capacity at times when water is not required; neither in Punjab nor Sindh. Never-the-less this spill over is debited to Sindh account and flows beyond Kotri. This is made a spurious excuse to justify that water is flowing beyond Kotri and is wasted.

This has proved to be detrimental to Sindh as the early Kharif shortages are not cared for and concerns for assumed Rabi season shortages in the Punjab are given more weightage. Wapda figures provide evidence that in five out of nine years Mangla reservoir could not be filled up to 1202, the stored water was not fully utilized up to March 31 of the following Rabi season. While Accord stipulates sharing of water resources on national basis, the Punjab divides it as Indus Zone and Mangla Zone canals.

It satisfies full needs of Northern Punjab and instead of taking care of Lower Punjab as its responsibility under Indus Waters Treaty, 1960 puts Sindh in stress by diverting water from Indus through Link Canals. All the link canals are neither perennial canals nor flood canals. These are enabling devices to transfer water from Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) to meet needs of lower tributary areas of the Punjab. But this is to be done after needs of Indus main are met. However, the Accord, by fixing shares emboldens Punjab to divert water as a claim under the Accord.

Likewise, CJ and TP Link canals are being used as regular canals, though Punjab has ample water from Mangla to water lower tributary lands. A simple glance at the river flow data of Jhelum and Chenab rivers and Eastern rivers show that these rivers have adequate water to meet the water requirement of not only the upper tributary areas of Punjab but also the lower tributary areas including the canals of Eastern Rivers. This water has also been lost to the lower riparian provinces after the Treaty. The loss of Eastern rivers to India was not confined to only one particular area/region. All regions are to be compensated equitably.

Future Outlook: Water storages are necessary to store water for even regulation during the whole year as the river flow pattern demand this. However, the benefits of an area must not be robbed in the name of greater good of the nation. And after all, where is surplus water if a dam is to be constructed on Indus main. As said earlier, the refuge is being taken in averages and castles are being built in the air without any consideration for the consequences.

Suggestions: It is better to re-read the report of TCWR before taking any decision about any big dam, specially Kalabagh dam in view of the following observations:

Water Accord 1991 provides for allocations of 117.35 MAF which is projected to increase to 131 MAF, inspite of the fact that canal withdrawals stand at 105.12 MAF on the basis of averages of 1977-82; and the lowest water availability of water ever recorded is 95.99 MAF.

Water is simply not available to construct the dam and simultaneously meet the water requirements of the country.

Mangla dam operation criteria must be made practical in the sense that preference may be given to current crop production rather than future expectations. Mangla dam is replacement of three eastern rivers which has adversely affected Sindh and Balochistan. The needs of lower riparians need to be protected.

The link canals are neither perennial canals nor flood canals. These are enabling devices to transfer water from Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) to meet needs of lower tributary areas of the Punjab. But this is to be done after needs of Indus main are met. However, the Accord, by fixing shares emboldens Punjab to divert water as a claim under the Accord. 5. It is not water but its regulation and distribution needs to be watched to save the countries from agonies of conflict and possible water war.