Growth in the agriculture sector was 7.5 per cent last year. What would be the performance of the sector this year? Would the growth be sustained, raised or decline? Looking around, one comes across a somewhat bleak landscape that suggests lower produce in most major crops, possibly a reversal in wheat production and generally a come down from the promising previous state.

This is not a specifically prepared negative scenario. Ground conditions are providing incontrovertible evidence for this prediction. Reports suggest that the ministry of food, agriculture and livestock (Minfal) has also entered a realistic stretch and is beginning to admit that things are not working out in accordance with the expectations. One does not say according to plans because the one factor that has been conspicuously missing from the official scheme of things has been careful planning.

The last year’s ‘fabulous growth’ stemmed from high performance of the four major crops of cotton, wheat, rice and even controversial sugarcane. They had grown at 17.3 per cent to produce healthy statistics. The silver fibre of cotton has come under a grey shadow this year while prospects in wheat are not very encouraging; there in fact are apprehensions that the grain would not be robust.

Rice crop is said to be fine but the price of the commodity has become a contentious point between millers and growers on one side and exporters on the other. Even if the situation is managed this year, the current situation in the rice sector does not make for good tidings for the future. Cane is assessed to be about 10 per cent less than last year. These factors obviously do not add up to high growth. The message they deliver in unambiguous and negative.

Cotton crop is already in disarray. Minfal had embarked on an ambitious, wish based move by fixing a high target for the crop for 2004-05. Its reason was quite simple, indeed naïve. Because the crop was an unprecedented 14.5 million bales the year before, it felt a repeat performance was on the cards. This was hardly a professional attitude towards management of cotton, for that matter, any other crop.

Nothing could have been better for the national economy and the farmers if the target was achieved but reports from cotton field were not justifying the decision and it became clear midway through the crop growth period that the high horse of hope would have to be abandoned. So the target was scuttled but it seems that even the downwards revised target may prove elusive. Cotton is likely to be big looser this year.

Cotton had made the highest contribution to last year’s growth figure of 7.5 per cent. A low crop would push down overall growth of the sector as the positive support the high crop had provided would be missing. This the first set back to expectations. Nobody’s fault except that Minfal had raised the scales without looking at the field, without any logical and concrete reason.

Forecast for wheat is not promising either. Reasons for a relatively low produce are very much on view. Cane crushing has been delayed in many fields where wheat traditionally replaces it. Paddy harvesting has not completed reportedly all over and many paddy fields have not been cleared for wheat cultivation. Cotton growers have been waiting to pick the last flower in some areas to extract the maximum from their crop.

How much wheat land is still occupied by previous crops has not been measured - it would be too much to expect this from Minfal or provincial agriculture departments but there are no two opinions that a considerable percentage of wheat land has not been available to the crop on time. Reduced cultivation area means reduced yield.

All in all, wheat sowing has lagged behind the best schedule for obtaining maximum produce and this in itself is a negative factor because delayed sowing costs heavily to the produce. November 20 is regarded as the cut off date for wheat cultivation. We are now moving in to the middle of December and wheat is still being cultivated, waiting sowing in some areas.

Some other factors stand in the way of a good produce from farms that went on cultivation line as per ideal schedule. Water availability is low in some areas and the closure of Taunsa Barrage would deprive more than a few fields of nourishment for the crop. Fertilizers supply is reported short and more expensive than the last year. The generous incentive the government had provided by offering them an additional fifteen rupees per 40 kg left most farmers cold.

The government had fixed a target of 22 million tons for the crop. By now it is clear that the target would be extremely difficult to realize, particularly because there are reports of a decline in sowing area of up to 15 per cent. Lower cultivation area is bound to be translated in to lower produce. Encouraged by the last year’s produce of 21.5 million tons, the authorities decided, on what basis one does not know, that the crop would be higher this year. It could have been but that needed the placing of all components in place. That wasn’t even attempted.

Wheat is already being imported, needless to point out, at rates much higher than the price given to local framers. Wheat consumption requirements have increased meanwhile because the population is growing. It is actually still on an exploding streak; there would be more souls to be fed, whatever the population rise figures. The price of flour has been continuously increasing and trends do not suggest a reprieve. The argument of imports for maintaining prices is not just hollow, it is worse.

There are other negative aspects for the economy in this situation. Import deals for 0.650 million tons of wheat have already been finalized and the private sector is said to be on the move for more imports. Low cotton produce would mean higher imports for the textile sector. Sugar is already being imported, thanks to mismanagement by the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) that had purchased excess stocks from sugar mills and also imported the commodity to keep prices constant and maintain supply for consumers.

All in all, there will be more imports and more foreign exchange spending. This isn’t exactly a state of buoyancy for the agriculture sector of a country known for agriculture providing the backbone for its economy. More worrying is the government’s handling of the sector. It is anything but organized, professional and in line with the needs of the sector.

With cotton, wheat, and cane production steeply declining, the prospect of agriculture sector in the current year is marked by the gloominess.

Minor crops are neither here nor there, at least in the contest of over all growth of the sector. What we have are conditions for increased food imports at prices much higher than the government is willing to pay to farmers of Pakistan. The total bill would a major drain on the exchequer.

This low productivity and high imports, isn’t what an agriculture economy should be about. No one but the government is responsible for this sad state of affairs. When policies do not take realities in to account and are callous towards those who sweat and toil, results can just not be otherwise.