BEIJING, Sept 20: China will need more than 2,600 new planes worth $213 billion over the next 20 years, quadrupling its fleet to become the world’s second largest aviation market, US aerospace giant Boeing said on Tuesday.
In its 2005 market outlook it predicted air travel in China will grow by 8.8 per cent annually for domestic flights and 7.3 per cent with international flights included — outpacing the global average of 4.8 per cent.
This “incredible” growth means China will need to quadruple its fleet to 3,200 planes by 2024, according to Boeing’s forecasts which are watched closely by the industry to gauge future developments.
Most of the expansion will be in single-aisle aircraft such as the Boeing 737 which offers 110 to 180 seats, company officials said.
Of the 2,600 new jets needed, an estimated 1,678 will be these smaller airplanes, often used for city-to-city travel within China.
The company said growth in the China market will be driven by its rapid economic growth, massive construction of airports and peoples’ increasing ability to afford flights.
“The high demand for single-aisle airplanes will be driven by increasing affluence among Chinese people and an increased desire to travel within China and to neighbouring countries,” said Randy Baseler, vice president of marketing, who is visiting China to attend an aviation expo this week.
China’s market will demand increased frequencies of flights and more direct flights between cities, and as a result it will need smaller jets rather than bigger aircraft, Boeing said, contrary to predictions by its European competitor Airbus of a shift to much bigger planes.
Airbus has built the largest commercial carrier, the A380.
Mid-sized or twin-aisle planes, which can hold more than 200 people, will comprise 568 of the total 2,600 new planes needed by China, while only a few “very large” aircraft would be needed, Boeing said.
Officials said they believe Chinese demand will be sustained over the 20-year period, adding that it will initially need 450 to 500 planes for the next five years.—AFP
