KATHMANDU: Nepalese have been waiting to learn if the violence that has overwhelmed rural life here in recent years would ever end. Maoist rebels have recently declared a three-month ceasefire in their nearly decade-long war against the state that has killed at least 12,000 people and forced many thousands more to flee across the border to India or to the safety of Kathmandu and other cities.

Everybody seems to have an opinion. “It’s a very good initiative. The Maoists are trying to show they are prepared to go the extra mile to patch up their differences. It’s also good that people have some respite (from the war). There’s so much tension in the country — for businesses, travellers, general citizens, says former diplomat Yadav Kant Silwal. “I think the government has to come out with a positive reply ... the problem is the army still feel they can beat the Maoists, and that’s what the king is hearing from his advisers,” says Silwal, also former secretary-general of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc), in an interview with IPS.

On February 1 King Gyanendra Bir Bikram Shah Dev seized power and declared a state of emergency. He cut all land communications to and from Nepal for a week, suspended constitutional rights and jailed senior political leaders, blaming their corruption and mismanagement for the ongoing insurgency. But since then there have been few signs the army is gaining the upper hand over the Maoists in a battle that most military experts have called unwinnable, particularly since much of Nepal’s hilly terrain is difficult to reach by land. Yet recently, Chief of Army Staff Pyar Jung Thapa has vowed to defeat (Maoists) at any cost.

In a recent statement, Maoist leader Prachanda said: “We believe our move will encourage all forces, within and outside Nepal, who want peace through a forward-moving political solution.” NGO leader Shanta Lal Mulmi has called the ceasefire declaration “very positive ... it shows that now the Maoists, to some extent, would like to join the political mainstream”. “Let’s see how the government reacts—if they’re very much serious on this issue they should give an immediate response. But if they’re under army control, it will be delayed,” the secretary-general of the NGO Federation of Nepal says.

The leader of the powerful Nepali Congress party, Girija Prasad Koirala, has welcomed the Maoists’ announcement. “In fact, they made this announcement at our request,” he said. The Communist Party’s Madhav Kumar Nepal urged the rebels to return to peaceful politics and give up arms. He said King Gyanendra had violated the constitution and launched autocratic rule. “The history from 1950 is testimony that monarchy is completely useless for Nepali people,” ‘The Himalayan Times,’ quoted him as saying.

Both political parties have now renounced the current constitutional monarchy and are calling for a republican form of government to be established. The Maoists also advocate republicanism but as a first step only toward a communist system.

Prachanda and India’s Maoist leader Ganapathy have also released a statement pledging “to fight unitedly till the entire conspiracies hatched by the imperialists and reactionaries are crushed and the people’s cause of socialism and communism (is) established in Nepal, India and all over the world”. That revolutionary agenda is one reason the mainstream parties have balked at Maoists’ recent invitations to sit down for talks. Another is that rebels have broken past promises to refrain from targeting political party workers. The politicians are also worried about government threats to treat anyone cooperating with Maoists as “terrorists”. Other Nepalese are also sceptical.

“You don’t believe what those guys say, do you? The Maoists have also betrayed their declarations in the past, like they said they would stop targeting civilians, but they didn’t,” says a young woman who works in the finance industry. “Their leaders also feel that if they sit down for talks their cadres will feel that they betrayed the cause,” she adds. “Maybe they’ll also use the time to replenish their weapons,” suggests her friend, who works in an international NGO.

The Maoist statement says the ceasefire will remain in place until Dec 2, so people could observe the upcoming Dashain and Tihar festivals, the year’s largest, without fear. Prachanda said he hoped the move would “encourage political powers, including the United Nations, to initiate new moves for ensuring progressive political reforms in Nepal”. —Dawn/IPS News Service