JERUSALEM: Momentous though Israel’s withdrawal from occupied Gaza is, anyone expecting a quick return to Middle East peacemaking is likely to be disappointed. True, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will set a precedent by giving up settlements on land Palestinians want for a state and many Israelis saw as a Jewish birthright.

Also true, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas should have a whole territory, possibly with more access to the outside world, that could make the Gaza Strip a proving ground for statehood.

The United States, keen for signs of hope in the region, has thrown its weight behind the pullout as a spur to new talks.

But the two sides are way apart when attention turns to the West Bank, with very different ideas on how fast to move — and what the final destination should be.

Old obstacles that stopped progress on a US-inspired peace “road map” will return to centre-stage with neither side better able to address them and domestic attitudes hardening.

As always, a rapid spiral back into violence could hang on the whim of groups with no interest in peace at all.

“In fact Gaza is a bit of a sideshow,” said Jonathan Lindley of London’s Royal United Services Institute. “It changes very little in the greater shape of the conflict.”

The commemorative coffee mugs piled on Gaza shelves point to the next big question: “Congratulations for the withdrawal from Gaza ... And hopefully the West Bank...”.

Palestinians fear the price for Gaza is a stronger Israeli hold on the West Bank and Arab East Jerusalem, which they also want for a state. For now at least, Israel is unlikely to prove them wrong.

The approach to Sharon’s “disengagement” from conflict was unilateral from the outset. The idea it might be a step to peace only really took hold after Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat’s death nine months ago and when a truce was agreed in February.

Sharon stresses that Israel will never give up major West Bank settlement blocs, with the apparent blessing of its U.S. ally, while there will be no talks on Palestinian statehood until all militants are disarmed.

Fewer than four per cent of 240,000 settlers are affected by the plan, which removes just four of 120 West Bank settlements while it takes down all 21 in cramped and impoverished Gaza.

Meanwhile, work has sped up on Israel’s West Bank barrier, looping deep into the territory to take in settlement blocs.

Though Israel dubs it a temporary measure to stop suicide bombers, Palestinians call it a land grab to deny them a viable state, and the barrier creates the reality of a new border whether there are new talks or not.

Sharon aides hint that isolated settlements east of the barrier might one day have to go, but in the short term he is likely to shift rightwards ahead of a 2006 election.

Expect more settlement expansion and a huge response to any Palestinian militant attack, especially anything from Gaza.

Likud rival Benjamin Netanyahu, a pullout opponent, is already campaigning as a security hawk. With centre-left Labour in disarray, the two look like the only candidates for premier.

Whoever wins, Israel will be buried in domestic politics after the withdrawal. That may limit foreign pressure for peace concessions, while a traumatic Gaza pullout could rule out giving up more settlements for years.

“I don’t think there will be peace talks any time soon,” said Israeli analyst Mark Heller. “The best might be some kind of semi-coherent attempt to contain damage and minimize instability and will be concentrated on confidence-building measures.” These may focus on ensuring access between Gaza and the West Bank and boosting the Palestinian economy, but will take time. Even steps agreed at truce talks in February remain incomplete.

Israel is in no hurry. Part of the point of the Gaza plan was to ensure a Jewish majority in lands under Israel’s control while the barrier made attacks from the West Bank harder.

Abbas is under much more pressure to deliver.

“The old formula of ‘land for peace’ has been changed and now it is ‘land for time’,” said analyst Ali Jarbawi. “With Gaza they might buy some time, but I don’t think the piece by piece approach is going to be acceptable to the Palestinians.”

Abbas faces a huge, immediate challenge in controlling his security forces and reining in unruly gunmen, even from his own Fatah group, as well as tackling years of corruption and decay.

Talk of dismantling militant factions, a road map condition — like the settlement freeze Israel has failed to carry out — has been shelved in favour of dialogue with armed groups.

Hamas militants, sworn to destroying Israel, are happy to go along for now with the generally popular ceasefire as it heads towards January parliamentary elections expecting big gains. Disarmament would be a different question.—Reuters