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DAWN - the Internet Edition


August 7, 2005 Sunday Rajab 1, 1426

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Editorial


Realism in energy planning
Protecting national heritage
Mauritania at the crossroads



Realism in energy planning


AT its first meeting in the current fiscal year, the National Economic Council (Ecnec) has approved 40 development projects costing about Rs. 95 billion. Correctly, the focus is mainly on energy security to sustain a seven to eight per cent growth rate during the next five years. Interestingly, though surprisingly as well in the context of our efforts to procure peaceful nuclear energy in the past, this objective is to be achieved to an extent by increasing domestic nuclear power production from the present 437MW to 8,800MW in the next 25 years. This would mean that the contribution of nuclear energy to the total energy mix would go up from the present less than one per cent to over eight per cent. This is too ambitious a target to realize. The reasoning of the planners for this ambitious target is not all wrong, though. In the total energy mix the contribution of depleting gas deposits is nearly 50 per cent while that of costly imported oil is 30 per cent, with hydro-electricity (12 per cent) and coal (six per cent) meeting the balance along with liquefied gas and nuclear energy.

The international oil prices have already hit the $62 mark sending our oil import bill to five billion dollars, a burden difficult to bear. In the not too distant future our gas deposits too would dwindle to a negligible level causing this bill to go further up, even if we succeed in getting gas piped in from Iran and/or Turkmenistan in the next 10 years or so. Even if the construction of a big dam is taken in hand this year, it will take at least 10-12 years to complete. As for the Lakhra coal project, it is taking its own time in coming on stream. So, the best option for the country under the circumstances is to go for more economical and quick-gestation nuclear power projects. But then, it took almost 30 years to add 300MW of nuclear power to 147MW of Kanupp and that too with the help of China. At present, Pakistan is negotiating with China for the 300MW Chashma-II. At this rate, it will take more than three times the projected period to start generating 8,000MW of nuclear power. It would, therefore, be advisable to be more realistic on this score.

The most viable source, in the given context, is coal without of course giving up on nuclear power. Ecnec had approved a Rs. 1.1-billion project in 2004 to build the needed infrastructure for coal mining and power production at the Lakhra site. One would like to know what progress has been made on this project so far. As a matter of fact, knowing the stakes involved, it would be advisable to form a special committee to oversee and monitor the progress on the power front and meet as often as necessary. Its task should be to act as a watchdog on all projects which Ecnec keeps on announcing from time to time and keep the nation informed. It would not be out of place here to point out that despite the fact that Indian coal is of poor quality, being low in content and high in ash and located far from major consumption centres, the share of coal in the total energy mix there is over 54 per cent. China is obtaining more than half of its electricity through thermal power stations run by coal. We can learn from both.

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Protecting national heritage


MUCH has been written in these columns about the government’s attempts at provincializing the national heritage. We have time and again argued against such a move in keeping with the national interest and to maintain a sense of cohesion in safeguarding the common cultural heritage. The latest demand by an NWFP legislator that all Gandhara relics displayed in Pakistani museums should be relocated to the Frontier makes no sense in that context. Gandhara relics are as much part of the national heritage as those belonging to the Indus Valley Civilization or the Mughal era for that matter. The federal government acted in undue haste and unwisely last year when it transferred control of the Lahore Fort and Shalimar Gardens to the Punjab government. The latter had been asking for it since the time Nawaz Sharif was chief minister of Punjab. The passage of time and the neglect of the monuments in question have shown that the provincial government is totally inept when it comes to the protection and upkeep of these national historical assets. The demand now emanating from the Frontier would not have been there if Islamabad had not handed over national monuments to the Punjab government in the first place.

There is much inward looking among the provinces owing to lack of consensus on vital national issues — the construction of big dams and the dispute over an NFC award being but the two most obvious examples. The last thing the nation needs is the division of historical and cultural relics along provincial lines. This can only fan exclusivist sentiments among those with a vested interest. The damage done to the cause of national unity by the centre’s ill-advised moves so far can and must be reversed. All cultural heritage should at once revert to the control of the federal archaeology department, which is much better equipped and has trained and qualified conservationists to take care of national relics than its nascent provincial counterparts.

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Mauritania at the crossroads


ALTHOUGH they have promised to establish democratic conditions in the country within two years, the leaders of the bloodless coup that deposed Mauritania president Maaouya Ould Sid Ahmed Taya on Wednesday have still to spell out their political agenda in clear terms. Mr Taya, who had himself seized power through a military coup in 1984, was widely regarded as an autocratic ruler who tolerated little political dissent at home, and elections during his rule were marred by rigging. His government cultivated close ties with the US, providing the latter with military bases in the country to keep a check on militant Islamic camps in the region. Mauritania is also one of the three Arab states to have recognized Israel, and in recent times, it has come down with a heavy hand on those it considers to be radical Muslims.

While Mauritania is not considered a breeding ground of religious militancy, the former president’s repressive measures had antagonized even a section of moderate Muslims. It is this aspect that will, at least initially, bolster support for the coup that, according to analysts, has the backing of pro-Islamic factions. But even as the coup leaders prepare to lay the ground for a new political dispensation, they have to keep in mind that Mauritania, although oil-rich, is among the poorest countries in Africa, with some of the worst human development indicators. Democratic institutions are necessary for the country to progress in the right political direction, and free and fair polls must be held as soon as possible. At the same time, the coup leaders would do well to opt for a political course that does not include extremist policies, as this will not only jeopardize foreign-backed revenue-generating schemes in Mauritania but also alienate neighbouring countries, leading to even greater tensions than before.

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