THE need for new storages, wherever feasible on the Indus and other rivers, was recognized by the Water Accord 1991, but construction of a dam on Indus, especially at Kalabagh has become a contentious issue.
What is obstructing a national project of vital importance that promises irrigation of three million acres of land and generation of 2400 mw of cheap power? Time has come when an answer to this question must be found for our survival. We will have to dispassionately analyze different viewpoints to come to a logical conclusion. To do this, we will have to start from the beginning.
Indus is the largest of the six great rivers of the Indus Basin. The Indus Water Treaty of 1960 allocated the three rivers, Ravi, Beas and Sutluj, with a total annual flow of 33 million acre feet (maf), to India and the three Western rivers, Chenab, Jhelum and Indus, with a total annual flow of about 140 maf, to Pakistan.
Pre-independence (1940-45) water usages:
Kharif
Rabi
Total
Punjab
24.33
14.27
35.6
Sindh &
Balochistan
20.27
7.49
27.76
NWFP
2.49
1.23
3.72
Total
47.09
19.99
67.08
(Million acre feet)
After the Independence, new barrages were built on Indus along with their canal systems to augment the irrigated agriculture. Kalabagh barrage was built in 1947, Kotri in 1955, Taunsa in 1958 and Guddu in 1962. Consequent to the Indus Water Treaty, replacement works comprising Mangla dam, barrages and link canals were built which made good the loss of water from the eastern rivers. Water usages during 1965-70 increased to 97.57 maf as under:
Kharif
Rabi
Total
Punjab
34.71
16.03
50.74
Sindh
29.04
11.63
40.67
NWFP
3.14
1.75
4.89
Balochistan
0.56
0.71
1.27
Total
67.36
30.21
97.57
A history of mistrust is central to water distribution. In the past 70-80 years, integrated hydraulics reaching water budget constraints, have led to riparian conflicts. The government appointed a number of committees and commissions to resolve the water distribution issues which finally resulted in the historic 1991 Water Accord. In the meantime, while Pakistan’s population grew to 150 million, the growth in water sector remained stagnant because the waters of the Indus system were not apportioned to the provinces till 1991. The use of available water from Tarbela was not optimized for agricultural expansion and development. It was consumed in a most haphazard manner through the existing canals of Punjab and Sindh. Post-Tarbela (1977-87) water use increased from 97.57 maf to 104.53 maf as under:
Kharif
Rabi
Total
Punjab
33.81
19.98
53.79
Sindh
28.71
14.73
43.44
NWFP
3.57
2.05
5.62
Balochistan
0.87
0.81
1.68
Total
66.96
37.57
104.53
In the absence of planned expansion of irrigation system, Tarbela water was added to the existing systems of Punjab and Sindh with serious consequences in terms of water logging and salinity. Although water utilization in NWFP increased from 4.89 to 5.62 MAF, this was basically in the civil canals situated above the rim stations as the province neither had the necessary infrastructure to utilize water from Tarbela nor it could get any new scheme approved in the absence of water apportionment between the provinces.
The Water Apportionment Accord 1991 distributed the waters of the Indus Basin among the provinces as under:
Kharif
Rabi
Total
Punjab
33.07
18.87
55.94
Sindh
33.94
14.82
48.76
NWFP (a)
Govt canals
3.48
2.3
5.78
(b) Ungauged
civil canals
1.8
1.2
3.00*
Balochistan
2.85
1.02
3.87
Total
77.34
37.01
114.35*
(Excluding civil canals)*
The accord recognizes the need for future storages for agricultural expansion and distributes the flood water as well as the water from future storages between the four provinces in the ratio of Punjab 37, Sindh 37, NWFP 14 and Balochistan 12 per cent.
After allocation of 114.35 maf from the average annual inflow of 140 MAF, a balance of about 25 maf remains unutilized and flows out to sea. Ten maf is optimally required for escapage to sea below Kotri for environmental protection and approximately 15 maf remains surplus for storage and year round utilization. Kalabagh dam with the maximum retention level of 915.00 and storage of 5.2 maf, can effectively regulate 15 maf throughout the year, which will be distributed as under:
Kharif
Rabi
Total
Punjab
37%
3.625
1.925
5.55
Sindh
37%
3.625
1.925
5.55
NWFP
14%
1.37
0.73
2.1
Balochistan
12%
1.18
0.62
1.8
Total
9.8
5.2
15
The bare fact is that with the additional storage all the provinces will benefit and we will be able to avert the looming famine situation. Punjab and Sindh with their existing barrages and canal networks can utilize the entire flows in their existing systems by suitably enlarging or building new canals. In fact, the process has already started with the construction of greater Thal canal, Ranie canal and Kachi canal, all gravity canals.
On the other hand, NWFP is the only province which cannot utilize the existing flows without the dam as utilization of flood water by means of a lift canal is economically not feasible.
Why, then, the three provinces except Punjab are against Kalabagh dam? The position of Sindh is understandable as it does not trust Punjab because of its past experience and it gets the entire flood flow to inundate about three million acres of its ravirine area, which is under the control of the feudal lords.
On the other hand Balochistan benefits from the dam and it has got no apprehensions against it. The position of NWFP is different. Although it gets benefit from the dam but it has certain fears as well.
The Kalabagh dam has a maximum retention level of 915.00; which is the Kabul river bed level near Akora, about 12 km downstream of Nowshera. The fear that Nowshera would be drowned is therefore baseless. The drains from Mardan and Swabi fall into Kabul River near Nowshera, upstream of the retention level. They would not be affected by the reservoir.
As per project document, the under-sluices will remain open from June 1 through July 20 (for 50 days) for flushing of silt coming with the first floods; the level in the reservoir will be maintained at 825.00 from June 1 to July 10; the gates will be closed and filling of reservoir will start on July 20; the reservoir will attain the maximum level of 915.00 on September 20, and will stay at 915.00 till October 10, (for 20 days only) and emptying of reservoir would start on October 10. With the operating scheme as envisaged in the project document, the maximum retention level would be attained after the flood season is over. The apprehension that with the reservoir full, a new flood would aggravate the position is therefore not plausible.
The real issues which should be of concern to NWFP are:
(a) In the original plan, the maximum retention level was kept as 925.00 and the crest level of the dam was 940.00. While the reservoir level has been lowered to 915.00, the top level of the dam has not been reduced to 930.00. This gives rise to the fear that Wapda may increase the retention level in the future. This should not be acceptable to NWFP and it should insist on lowering the top level of the dam to 930.00.
(b) NWFP should also get a guarantee from the Federal Government that the maximum retention level will not exceed 915.00; that the under-sluices will remain open from June 1, through July 20; that the reservoir level will be maintained at 825.00 up to 20th July; that the gates would be closed and filling of reservoir will start on July 20 in accordance with the reservoir operating scheme and that the maximum retention level of 915.00 will be attained on September 20.
(c) The right bank canal to utilize the allocated share of NWFP (2.1 maf) must be incorporated in the Kalabagh dam project.
(d) Resettlement and compensation issues should be clearly defined.
Without the proposed provisions, assurances and guarantees stated earlier, NWFP may not derive its due benefits. It may even suffer adverse consequences.
