BAGHDAD, Jan 31: Iraqi politicans have started bartering over the next government following the country's historic vote that will likely pave the way for a Shia-led government for the first time in an Arab state in 11 centuries.

As the dust settled on Monday, Iraq's political powerbrokers had already rolled up their sleeves to bargain over the shape of the country's first democratically elected government in 50 years.

"Even now some haggling is going on," one Iraqi politician privy to the backroom talks said. "Politicians being the animals are they don't stop politicking."

The negotiations will take up the better part of February, once the full results come in and it becomes clear how many seats the front-running Shia coalition has won in the new 275-member national assembly, the politician said.

The task is monumental - to form a government that balances the interests of the country's Shia community, Kurds and the Sunni bloc. Failure risks nothing less than a permanent rupture: the opening of an era of civil conflict and the collapse of Iraq as a modern state.

Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi on Monday called on Iraqis to unite to rebuild the country after the first vote since Saddam Hussein was toppled in April 2003. Politicians and western diplomats believe a bargain will be struck for a broad representative government that will pursue the weighty task of writing a permanent constitution and pacifying the country.

The front-running Shia bloc, the United Iraqi Alliance, is expected to gain the largest share of the vote, winning anywhere from 100 to 160 seats in the assembly, a US official said.

The king makers of the Shia parties will be Abdel Aziz Hakim's Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution of Iraq (SCIRI). Aziz Hakim has insisted he want the Sunnis in the next government.

Also working in the shadows is Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who backed the Shia list and is thought to be the most powerful political player in the country. The Kurds are the other key players, expected to win the second largest share of seats.

One Kurdish official said: "We will play ball with the people" who will guarantee the Kurdish agenda of self-rule in the north. If the United Iraqi Alliance wins less than a huge majority, the premier ship could be retained by Mr Allawi, the secular Shia and former Baathist who enjoys the virtue of being the man everybody knows, a US official said.

But one Iraqi political insider said: "If they (the Shia list) get more than 45 per cent, they will not allow Mr Allawi to be the prime minister." The insider said Shias would push the candidacies of SCIRI finance minister Adel Abdel Mahdi or Hussein al Shahrastani, a nuclear scientist.

The charismatic free-market enthusiast Mahdi, who has charmed Washington's National Security Council, is more likely to be the pick, one Western diplomat said. What is certain is that the final face of the new government will reflect the balance of power and shared goals among the three heavy hitters in Iraq's political arena.

"The Kurdistan national movement, the Shia list and the Iraqi list of Iyad Allawi are the triumvirate," said state minister Adnan Janabi, a Sunni independent on the Allawi slate.

Mr Janabi said he expected the Shia to have the largest piece of the pie but the blocs would probably split and form different combinations in the rambunctious assembly as they made common cause.

"There are a lot of different movements on the Shia list. Even on the Kurdish side, we would expect to see some differences between (Kurdish leaders) Massud Barzani and Jalal Talabani," he said. Drawing attention to the free-wheeling atmosphere he expects, Mr Janabi said: "We are not talking about Allawi getting 51 per cent of the vote." -AFP