Iraq: what after the polls?

Only time will tell whether the results of Sunday's elections will prove to be positive for Iraq, the Middle East in general, and for the occupying powers which have managed it all.

An assessment of the turn-out is difficult to make at this early stage, because foreign observes were conspicuous by their absence. This was less because of a lack of interest in the polls and more for fear of kidnapping.

As expected, there was a low turn-out in the Sunni area, though there was brisk polling in the Shia south and the Kurdish north. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani's appeal to his community to vote seems to have worked with Shias who constitute 60 per cent of the population (Ayatollah Sistani himself could not vote because he is Iranian by origin).

The government first claimed that the overall turn-out was 72 per cent but later revised it to 60. Even if 60, it is not bad for a people having their first multi-party election in half a century in the midst of violence.

The militants, nevertheless, struck, especially in Baghdad, with at least 27 people killed. Among those eliminated were voters in line when a suicide bomber blew himself up at a polling station in Sadr City.

Preliminary results of the complicated elections will be available in six to seven days, while the final results will take at least 10 days to be announced. Even then it would be difficult to detect a voting pattern in terms of parties, because no such phenomenon existed in Baathist Iraq or even earlier.

Fielding candidates in Sunday's elections were no less than 200 parties and party alliances, with over 7,000 candidates contesting for 275 seats to the transitional assembly. Analysts agree that no Shia party will gain a majority, and that this will only lead to a parliamentary coalition.

The post-election scenario is hazy. One big question concerns the raging insurgency. Most observers say that it will continue, and that will make a return to normality difficult.

The boycott of the election by the Sunni minority will mean that the new assembly will lack a national character, and for that reason the constitution to be drafted will be controversial.

Yet it depends on how the new leadership establishes its national character and makes efforts to be acceptable to all sections of the population. The big flaw in the electoral process and its aftermath is the absence of the United Nations.

The US has done it on its own, and that will give the post-election leadership an American stamp. In fact, the new Shia leadership may not be able to carry on with men like Mr Iyad Allawi, who once worked for the CIA. In that case, the Shia insurgency seen twice in Najaf last year could re-erupt.

America will be lucky if the system works. So far, the US itself is unsure of the post-electoral scenario. One indication of this is Washington's refusal to give a possible date for the withdrawal of American forces.

Thus, there is a possibility that the Sunni minority and the Shia majority may join hands against what looks to be an open-ended occupation. Above all, only the future will tell whether a democratic system will develop root in Iraq.

The holding of the election constitutes a promising starting point. But a lot depends on how the new leadership behaves, what relationship it develops with the occupying power, whether Iraqi national reconciliation reaches a point where insurgency ceases - and whether America will desist from manipulating Iraq after destroying it.

A welcome event

At a time of dark happenings, the successful holding of an international marathon in Lahore seems like a breath of fresh air. The participation of over 14,000 runners, including many students and women, several overseas professional competitors, and a 93-year-old man brought an eclectic mix to the race.

The winner of the main 42-kilometre event was a Kenyan, from a country that has produced many marathon victors. His time of a little over two hours and 14 minutes was almost half an hour quicker than the best Pakistani competitor - proof of the huge gap that exists in athletics between our sportsmen and women and those in some other countries.

Apart from cases where runners complained that they had lost their way because of inadequate directions or when some over-enthusiastic spectators joined the race in midstream, the event was generally well managed and will hopefully set a healthy precedent for other cities.

The merit of holding such events is manifold. They provide a healthy outlet for people and can promote habits of fitness and exercise among us. They also project an image of country far different from the straitjacketed one of its being a sanctuary for bigoted killjoys or of gun-wielding extremists who use force and violence to thrust their views on everyone else.

The new image could be of a normal, vibrant society ready to move ahead. While a single event such as the marathon can hardly be expected to change the prevailing environment of fear and inhibition, it can prove to be a starting point for further encouragement and patronage of healthy sporting and recreational activities.

This is what is needed to dilute the restrictive and oppressive ambience that has unfortunately evolved over the years in Pakistan which views with disapproval the pursuit of anything enjoyable or relaxing.

Murder in Karachi

Sunday's murder of a mosque imam, Maulana Mohammad Haroon Qasmi, and his police guard in broad daylight in Karachi points once again to the fragile state of law and order in the city.

Because the maulana belonged to a banned sectarian organization, the city's police chief was found rushing to the conclusion within hours of the assassination, saying the motive behind the murder was sectarian.

However, it remains unclear as to who carried out the attack and for what reason. Three assailants reportedly intercepted the victims in the street soon after Zuhr prayer. One of them first shot the police guard from behind, asking his accomplice to take the guard's machine gun.

The two then sprayed the maulana with bullets and made good their escape with a third accomplice on a motorcycle. The incident sent shock waves throughout the area, with protesters gathering and setting the nearby police check post on fire.

The prayer leader had earlier survived an assassination attempt on his life. But his father had been killed outside the same mosque in a similar manner some years ago. The latest incident brings to mind the unfortunate spate of murders and attacks on mosques and imambaras in Karachi last year.

For want of evidence to the contrary, the police termed all the incidents as sectarian violence, but failed in most cases to track down the assailants or those behind the attacks.

The mystery that usually surrounds such murders and attacks on religious leaders and places of worship has shaken public confidence in the police force. It is time intelligence and investigation agencies got on the trail of those whom the police believe to have a vested interest in sparking sectarian violence. Those who committed Sunday's grisly murders and their backers must be apprehended and brought to justice.