BEIRUT: Spiralling violence and political controversy over Iraq's Jan 30 election are raising fears of a Lebanon-style civil war in the divided land, analysts say.
Lebanon's delicate sectarian power-sharing system, which enshrined a leading role for minority Maronite Christians, could not stave off the 1975 outbreak of conflicts that engulfed the tiny country in bloodshed with little respite until 1990.
In Iraq, there is little history of sectarian violence, but the competing claims of ethnic and religious communities have sharpened divisions since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.
With long-dominant minority Sunni Muslim Arabs expected to stay away from the polls the stage is set for the Shia Muslim majority to command the political scene for the first time.
Politicians, officials and analysts warn that if Sunnis, who have ruled modern Iraq, are left on the sidelines, prospects of a civil war will loom large and restive Kurds might break away.
The insurgency raging in central Iraq is dominated by Sunni Arabs - a deadly combination of Saddam loyalists, Muslim militants and foreign fighters. Many Sunni religious, tribal and political leaders have called for a boycott of a poll they see as illegitimate because it will take place under what they call foreign occupation.
Even Sunnis who favour the election could decide not to vote for fear of violence and intimidation. This would pave the way for Shias to sweep most of the 275 seats of parliament.
"Boycotting means betrayal and the sparking of civil war," Iraq's interior Minister Falah al-Naqib said this week. "If the National Assembly does not represent all Iraqis, we will enter civil war and division of the country."
Sahar Ba'asiri, a columnist at Lebanon's leading An-Nahar newspaper, said Naqib's remarks appeared merely to state facts. "It is regrettable that in light of the sharp sectarian and ethnic divisions in Iraq today, the interior minister's position appears to be more a prologue than a warning," she wrote.
"It is the beginning of blaming this side or that for what many see as an actual civil war with the elections nothing but its official starting point." Adnan Abu Oudeh, an Arab political commentator and a former Jordanian palace adviser, said the United States had set the ground for civil strife in Iraq after its March 2003 invasion.
"Right from the beginning the Americans chose to interact with the communal chiefs who represented tribes, sects and ethnic groups," said Abu Oudeh. "The national identity was submerged in favour of the sectarian, tribal and ethnic identity," Abu Oudeh said.
"The concept of Lebanization of Iraq has become familiar - they are talking about it and this has made it more feasible." Unlike in Lebanon where a weak central state survived the 1975-90 conflict, sectarian warfare in Iraq would break up a country stamped by strong central rule under Saddam, he warned.
"Partition in Iraq will come as a solution for a civil war to stop bloodletting," he said. Iraq's Shia community, led by Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has insisted the polls go ahead, scenting the chance to rule Iraq through the ballot box after decades of oppression.
This has turned Shia politicians, officials and clerics into targets for attack by hardline Sunnis. Sistani has so far told his followers not to take revenge for sectarian killings.
This has given hope to Baghdad-based Iraqi political commentator Ahmad al-Rikaby that a civil war can be averted. "Nothing is impossible. But the mosaic in Iraq is not new," he said. "There have not been wars between sects as such, unlike Lebanon which saw several civil wars throughout the centuries."
Rikaby said internal conflicts in Iraq have tended to involve the authorities, not warring sects or ethnic minorities, arguing that the long-running Kurdish problem set Kurds against the central government, not against their Arab compatriots.
"Iraq's leaders from all sects have also helped prevent a crisis. Sistani made it clear he is against Shia tribes taking revenge and Sunni clerics have also been wise," he said.
"The Iraqis are difficult and hot-blooded, yes, but reading the country's history is fundamental. It does not show a propensity for civil wars," Rikaby said. -Reuters
