17 January 2005	Monday	06 Zilhaj 1425

What do people living in pitiable conditions have to look forward to? Plenty, may be. They may not be hitched to the stars, according to a random survey, ordinary Pakistanis are relatively more hopeful than their prosperous-supposedly-enlightened countrymen.

They are optimistic despite the reported fact that the promised trickle down of six per cent plus growth has yet to be experienced. The inflation is running high and job creation targets have not materialized so far.

Crime rate is disturbingly high as well. Industrial expansion is confined to highly capital intensive sectors. Agriculture is exposed to vagaries of weather in absence of planned required intervention by those responsible. What then is the source of this optimism? Is it totally misplaced?

In all probability the expectations of people are not baseless. Pakistani people, though, may not be literate, they, however, like their counterparts elsewhere, have developed instincts to sense the general direction of the future.

They on the basis of this insight make intelligent decisions under the given circumstances. Like people elsewhere in the world, their behaviour is guided primarily by their economic interests though they may not be very neatly defined.

Possibly people at the lower rungs develop this quality in their struggle of economic survival against odds of all types. Some attribute the trend to the government propaganda.

"The repeated proclamations of the government about high growth rates, friendly world environment; comfortable foreign exchange situation, good cotton crop and high industrial growth could also have influenced their opinion", some commentators maintain.

But then the governments tend to paint a rosy picture under all circumstances the mood of the masses, however, has not been the same over the years. If people are hopeful they ought to be seeing some light at the end of the tunnel.

What are the factors feeding this optimism? Do they expect government to offer them a better life? Ordinary Pakistani, for all practical purposes is quite independent of the government.

He fends for himself on his own. In absence of any form of job or social security net he swims or sinks depending on his resources, capability and ingenuity. Still the mindset is such that they look up to the state for support, even when it is just moral.

When government announces that its coffers are full and growth is fabulous, it does create, if nothing else, a good feeling. Currently, however, from what one gathers from opinions of people interviewed in four cities of the country, (Karachi, Rawalpindi, Islamabad and Abottabad) optimism is based on the higher earning prospects in the year ahead.

"There are many women in our locality working in garment factories or bringing the stuff home from contractors to work from home. They are exploited and are not paid fairly but whatever little they earn supplements their family income.

We have heard that Seth (master) is planning to expand his capacity. For him it may mean whatever but for us it means more work and therefore more income", said Ghulam 62, a retired worker who lives in a small quarter in Korangi, a low income locality bordering city's industrial area.

"I am a plumber. I cannot afford a shop. So I used to sit at a hardware shop. The arrangement with the shop owner was that I will share 30 per cent of my daily earnings with him for using his place to net clients.

I used to earn about Rs200 on a good day, of which I had to pass on Rs60 to the shop owner. Recently I bought a mobile phone on installments and it worked wonders for me. I do not need to sit at any shop anymore.

People in the locality know me as I have been working in the area for the last ten years. I have passed on my number to all my clients. Now I can be contacted on telephone.

I am finding it hard to organize myself in this new situation. With time I sure will organize myself better and even at the same level of client I won't have to part with the 30 per cent income that I had to pass on to the shopkeeper. If I could organize better I would definitely earn a lot better", said Abdul 40, a resident of Mehmudabad who works in Gizri area.

If not all some friendly donors endorse people's view. "The positive economic outlook is backed by a significantly strengthened economic base", says Asian Development Bank (ADO 2004-05) report.

The government's active debt management policy and tax reforms are expected to lead, respectively, to further reduction in debt servicing and to increase in revenues, the report says.

The resulting fiscal leeway will allow it to spend more on operation and maintenance in public sector. This will in turn improve the infrastructure, which along with low interest rates are likely to further encourage investment. Driver of growth, according to ADB are:

1. Intra-regional trade.

2. Consumer demand: an expanding middle class and the relatively young age structure.

3. Pick up in business investment.

From what one gathers from conversing to petty traders and servicemen, there is more economic activity and people can feel it irrespective of the fact if it has benefited them directly or not.

"Can't you feel it? You seem to be an educated person traveling places?" a shopkeeper Reza 36, who sells hair accessories for girls off a makeshift stall in Pindi remarked.

"If you just sit at the roadside and count trucks carrying construction material such as cement or steel you would know what I mean. There are more such vehicles on road than before", he said.

"People I know made loads of money over the last two to three years though many shy away from accepting their newly acquired riches", he grinned. "They made it big in real estate", he confided.

"All you need is hard work, consistency and a little luck. Some day I want to own a shop for which I am saving and investing as much as I could. May be next time you find me in my dream shop", the laughed aloud.

A few economists and analysts contacted were skeptical. "I expect more of the same, as long the mindset of the policy makers is not changed to opt for a long term pro-people sustainable economic strategy", said Dr Asad Saeed. "You cannot possibly divorce politics from economics.

It is good that people in Karachi and Islamabad are comfortable but when making a generalization people of Sui in Balochistan or Waziristan in NWFP cannot be ignored altogether. They are as much citizens as anyone else living in comparatively more prosperous regions of Pakistan, countered an analyst from Sindh.

"The country needs a genuine representative democracy where aspirations and needs of people of all provinces are heeded. Political uncertainty kills economic initiatives.

In the current set up I see little potential to deal with political issues at hand. So there is not much hope and there is very strong possibility that the political instability will continue to mar the economic prospects of the country", he argued.

Optimists, however, outnumber pessimists at the moment. The defining issue for Pakistan in 2005 will, however, be whether or not the country can sustain the growth momentum in a more competitive world environment.

Equally important would be the treatment the social sector gets from the team of a banker turned Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz for the peoples' expectations to materialize.