KSE index at all-time high on strength of blue chips
By Muhammad Aslam
The KSE 100-share index in the second last week of 2004 broke two consecutive barriers to finish at all-time high levels owing to massive buying in leading base shares including the OGDC, the PTCL, the Pakistan Oilfields and some others.
The first barrier of 6,100 points was broken in mid-week trading, while at the fag-end of the last week of 2004, it breached through the second and settled well above 6,200 points, indicating that the sailing during the New Year (2005) would be pretty smooth.
The sharp flare-up was attributed to the President's decision to retain both the offices which investors believed could lead to the continuation of existing economic and corporate policies.
Index finished the last day of the year 2004 with a net gain of 172.60 points at 6,218.40 as compared to 6,045.80 a week back. The market capital was record high at Rs1,724 billion, up by Rs51 billion.
Stocks, therefore, continued to explore new highs in each session as the widely rumoured free-float from the massively overbought carryover market failed to cause major dents in the prevailing price structure.
Unloading from the carryover market did emerge at the fag-end of the week but it was well-absorbed both at the rise and the dip, notably in most of the important shares. The KSE 100-share index, which breached through the psychological barriers of 6,100 and 6,200 points, is poised to set new records in 2005, analysts said.
"Bulls seem to be out to match the KSE performance to that of the Mumbai stocks as far as the index level is concerned", said an analyst jokingly. Any level above the 6,200 points is considered at par with its Indian counterpart currently ruling around 6,400 points.
That figure is more striking if viewed in India's forex reserves perspective and Pakistan's annual export, he said. Instances of foreign buying, notably in some leading stocks, including the PTCL - which is expected to be privatized during the middle of the next year - the OGDC, the PPL and some others are not wanting which in turn have given depth to the market.
Unconfirmed reports, said Dubai-based investors, are cornering the floating stock of the PTCL in an apparent bid to acquire adequate shareholding. The Engro Chemical once again came in the limelight after Dawood Hercules, another fertilizer giant announced that it will buy its stakes from prospective sellers at Rs123 per share.
It has already purchased about 35 per cent of its floating stock during the last couple of months and is ready for a hostile-take over any day, market sources said. Its 10-rupee share soared to Rs133 after the announcement.
Massive activity in the PTCL and the Fauji Fertiliser Bin Qasim on heavy buying featured the trading on stock market where other leading shares also rose amid briskly traded sessions.
But the broader market was a bit hesitant to follow the price flare-up on selective counters as bulk of the support remained confined to the PTCL and some other leading shares amid reports of higher corporate dividend from the textile and sugar companies.
The KSE 100-share index, therefore, maintained its winning streak as investors were not inclined to take even a technical breather in a highly overbought market.
Massive fresh speculative buying in the PTCL and the OGDC continued to push the index to its career-best level in each session on the strength of their weight age in index. Both have about 36 per cent weight age in the KSE 100-share index and are capable of setting its future direction, some brokers said.
"Any amount of investment in both is absolutely safe and promises handsome increase in capital gains", they said adding, "even in case of market crash for some external negative reasons there is no financial risk involved, as far as those, and some other leading issues are concerned".
There may not be many cogent reasons behind the market's sustained run-up beyond the index level of 6,000 points, some analysts feel it could fall from current highs alone on technical selling after the year-end moping operations both by the banks and the institutional traders end.
"Reports from the carryover market are not that encouraging where investment figure soared to record high of Rs35 billion", said an analyst adding, "stake holders seem to have decided to hold on to their positions and are expected to roll over them to New Year".
That creates doubts in many minds whether or not the year 2005 opening will be as robust as it has been a year ago as a massive free-float from the carryover market could play havoc with the current bullish outlook, he added. But some others claim that much has changed since then and the market is expected to follow positive news from corporate sector rather than the external factors. Owing to a massive activity in the PTCL, volume figure soared to a single-session high of 611 million shares on late weekend selling in some volume leaders, including the OGDC.
Plus signs dominated the list under the lead of Nestle MilkPak, Colgate Pakistan, Shell Pakistan, International Industries, Lakson Tobacco, the IGI Insurance, Siemens Pakistan, Bhanero Textiles, National Foods, Treet Corporation, the AKD Securities, Javed Omer, Artistic Denim, Dawood Hercules, Noon Sugar, and others, while the losers included Clariant Pakistan, Shezan International, Dawood Lawrence, Island Textiles and National Refinery.
FORWARD COUNTER: The PPL led the list of actives and rose sharply to Rs143.75 on active buying followed by the Pakistan Oilfields, the OGDC and the Engro Chemical after hostile-take over bid by the Dawood Hercules. Others including the Fauji Fertiliser, the PTCL, Nishat Mills and some others also came in for strong support and ended higher.
