| 05 November 2004 | Friday | 21 Ramazan 1425 |
Karzai in the saddle
Mr George Bush's re-election as president marks a strengthening of the Republican right-wing, with implications for both America and the rest of the world. The traditional Republican-Democrat divide remains more or less unchanged, but with Mr Bush achieving the fairly rare feat of winning both the popular vote and the electoral vote and the consolidation of the Republican Party's hold over Congress, the conservative-fundamentalist lobby has been handed one of its strongest mandates of recent years.
The pre-poll debates between Mr Bush and Mr John Kerry, when the latter seemed to get the better of the president, and the large turnout on election day had combined to create the impression that the Democrats were forging ahead. It was also presumed that most Americans were worried about the mess into which Mr Bush had got them in Iraq and would want someone else to pull them out of it.
These suppositions held the ground in the closing moments of the election campaign, and the major US newspapers strongly endorsed Mr Kerry. But apparently the Democratic contender failed to convince middle America that he was the man to deal with Iraq and the 'war on terror', both pitched as the central issues in the campaign.
Mr Bush proudly described himself as a 'war president', and Mr Kerry permitted himself to also put security concerns on top of his agenda. Somehow the challenger failed to quicken the pulse or warm the blood - which will be debated by the Americans in the coming days.
What will Mr Bush do with his new, stronger mandate? Will it mean more extremism at home and more interventionism and bullying abroad? Social concerns were pushed into the background, and a mixture of evangelism and militarism prevailed. This may add to what a commentator has called the crisis of America's political system. Abroad, the Palestinians have made their disappointment more than clear.
No other US government gave the Israelis such an open licence to kill and oppress as the Bush administration, and there is genuine apprehension that, with Yasser Arafat seriously ill, Mr Bush might move to decapitate the Palestinian movement. Iran, described as part of the 'axis of evil' by Mr Bush, may also now find itself even more in the eye of the storm, and further American adventurism in the Middle East cannot be ruled out. There was some hope that a change at the White House would lead to a softening of militancy in Iraq and the Muslim world; this can now happen only if Mr Bush works with the international community to find a political way out of what he has created.
The biggest dilemma posed by Mr Bush's re-election is for Europe. If the Europeans had been able to take part in this week's US vote, they would have overwhelmingly supported Mr Kerry. Do they now re-admit Mr Bush into their fold with open arms, or step up efforts to consolidate themselves as an independent power bloc? It would be for America to decide how gracefully it wants to get back into the international community.
Pakistan under Gen Pervez Musharraf had developed a certain level of comfort working with the Bush administration, and would no doubt feel relieved that there might be no immediate need for a re-working of personal and bilateral relationships. The US had become closely involved with the peace process in the subcontinent and in this instance at least was playing a positive role. Whether it will remain even-handed has yet to be seen; when the crunch comes, Pakistan has often found itself sold short by the Americans.
If Mr Bush persists in his policies with regard to Muslim countries, it will add to the complexity of US-Pakistan relations and the difficulties of Islamabad in justifying its close partnership with Washington. In any case, it would be selfish to assess Mr Bush's victory only in our own terms; its overall implications for the stability of the international order are too great and awesome to permit such indulgence.
Karzai in the saddle
Mr Hamid Karzai's victory in Afghanistan's first-ever presidential election should be seen as his people's vote for the courageous policies he has followed since the fall of the Taliban regime. During the last three years, Mr Karzai had to face violent opposition not only from the remnants of the Taliban but also from the warlords. In addition there have been several assassination attempts on his life. One of his major achievements has been to put a functional administration in place. This was a difficult task, because trained hands had fled to other countries during the long civil war.
There were two main features of the presidential election. First, it was more or less violence-free. The Taliban's threat that they would disrupt the electoral process did not materialize. Even though there were attacks on election officials during the process of registration of voters, the election itself was largely peaceful. Afghan voters ignored the threat of violence and turned up in large numbers at the polling booths to cast their votes. This is significant and speaks highly of the Afghan people's desire to develop a democratic system for their country. Two, the electoral process was by and large seen as fair.
The announcement of the election results was held up because there were allegations of ballot-stuffing. The UN fact-finding commission investigated the matter and came to the conclusion that the election was fair. They conceded that there were "shortcomings" here and there, but they did not affect the overall results. Following the UN verdict, the joint UN-Afghan Commission declared that Mr Karzai had won the election by securing 55.4 per cent of the votes. This gave him a 39.1 percentage point win over his closest rival, Mr Yunus Qanooni, who was backed by the Northern Alliance.
The next five years are not going to be easy for President Karzai. The kidnapping of three UN officials the other day serves to highlight the precarious security situation. A large part of the country is in the grip of lawlessness, because the government's writ does not run there. The Taliban's organizational structure has been mauled, but they still retain the ability to hit and run.
Then there are the warlords, who are a law unto themselves. They have turned the provinces under their control into fiefdoms and refuse to help in the country's reconstruction. The Afghan national army has still not reached a level of strength where the UN-led International Security Assistance Force could be dispensed with.
For Pakistan, President Karzai's victory is a matter of satisfaction. Armed with a new mandate, Mr Karzai, a Pashtoon himself, should be able to deal with the Taliban, mostly based in Afghanistan's Pashtoon belt, with greater confidence. Islamabad has helped Kabul in the electoral process by enabling Afghan refugees to cast their votes. As statistics show, 577,776 Afghan refugees in Pakistan took part in the voting. In fact, President Karzai rang up President Musharraf to thank him for Islamabad's support to the electoral process.
Placed as they are, and given the bonds of religion, language and culture that unite them, Pakistan and Afghanistan have no choice but to live in peace, harmony and good neighbourliness. Both are faced with the threat of terrorism and must cooperate to eradicate the menace. A peaceful and stable Afghanistan is in Pakistan's interest. For that reason, Islamabad must do all it can within its resources to help in the country's reconstruction.