| 31 October 2004 | Sunday | 16 Ramazan 1425 |
Drop in forex reserves
Preventing acts of terror
It is not quite unexpected that President Musharraf's proposal to open a public debate on the Kashmir dispute should have stirred the hornet's nest in many quarters. It is our national psyche that any move to change the status quo meets with stiff resistance. It is also characteristic of those in opposition to believe it to be their duty to oppose the government's move however rational it may be.
Our inability to debate sensitive issues in a rational and civilized manner is the main cause of the failure of democracy in this country. It also makes it difficult to make a smooth transition from one situation to another through a consensus which is often missing. One can only hope that the debate President Musharraf wants to initiate will take place and will be conducted gracefully and rationally and not rhetorically which is the norm of our political debates.
It is now generally conceded that continuing the status quo in Kashmir does not promise a solution of the dispute. Of the three parties - India, Pakistan and the people of Kashmir - the worst affected are the Kashmiris and then the people of Pakistan. The adverse impact of the conflict has been felt on Pakistan's national security, economy and foreign policy. It has also been clearly established that the line we have followed for the past 58 years has not helped us win the right of self-determination for the people of Kashmir.
Three wars with India, mediation by the United Nations and diplomacy by leaders from the US and Britain have so far proved unavailing. If the hawks - the ones who have raised a hue and cry after the president spoke of exploring new options - are expecting a change in the international/regional power equilibrium and a shift in the balance in global politics in the near future that they think will facilitate a Kashmir solution in Pakistan's favour, it is a serious miscalculation on their part. Common sense demands that new solutions be explored and debated and a consensus forged.
This would be a more sensible approach than allowing the government to decide on the solution in a closed circle of policy makers and to impose it on the people. A public debate will at least help the government ascertain public opinion and conversely its own policy line will be adjusted according to the feedback it receives.
The Indian government has refused to join this debate saying that it does not want to negotiate on Kashmir through the media. This is understandable. Neither should the Pakistan government attempt to negotiate a settlement on Kashmir through media channels. This approach throws it on the defensive. While encouraging debates in other circles - academic, political party forums, thinktanks and NGOs - the government should avoid adopting prematurely public postures on this sensitive issue.
It would also be advisable for the political parties which are shouting themselves hoarse on the so-called 'betrayal' of the Kashmiris to treat this dispute as a serious matter that merits quiet and calm deliberations. It should not be politicized on partisan basis.
Drop in forex reserves
This week's decline in the country's foreign exchange reserves to about $9.94 billion from over $10.01 billion at the start of the month is cause for concern. The forex reserves continue to decline as demand rises and inflows remain largely static. Since the start of the fiscal year, the rupee has lost 5.5 per cent value against the dollar as a result of rising demand.
This week, the dollar was pegged at Rs61.33. Crossing the psychologically important barrier of Rs60 to a dollar shows that the rupee has weakened beyond the expectations of the country's economic managers. It also indicates that the State Bank is not aggressively supporting the rupee on the grounds that it does not want an overvalued rupee in the market.
The rise in dollar buying can be attributed to a number of reasons which include the rise in oil prices and a jump in non-oil and non-food imports. Between July and September, the State Bank sold over $400 million to support the rupee but it is clear that this strategy has not been able to stop the slide of the rupee. The trade deficit continues to rise and is expected to cross five billion dollar mark as compared to $3.2 billion in the previous year and this year's target of three billion dollars. Non-food and non-oil imports have risen by 38 per cent in the first quarter (July-September) of the year.
Despite the rise in incoming remittances by 8.4 per cent in the first quarter, the overall foreign exchange inflows remain largely stagnant. The government cannot continue to rely on its foreign exchange reserves to keep the rupee at pre-determined levels. More needs to be done to bring down outflows and, at the same time, boost inflows so that the rupee can gain strength.
Preventing acts of terror
Given the precarious law and order situation in the country, the panic created in Islamabad the other day after a blast at a luxury hotel is understandable. There were many who jumped to the conclusion that it was the handiwork of terrorists even though officials said their investigations revealed it to be a case of electrical short-circuiting. The rumour mill got more nuts to grind when it was reported that only a day earlier Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz had expressed dissatisfaction with security arrangements at public places in the capital.
The fact is that Islamabad and its environs - like any other place in the country - are not as safe and secure as they used to be. Over the past several months there have been a number of acts of terror, including the murder of Maulana Azam Tariq last year and two attempts on the life of President Musharraf. Roadside robberies have also become common, with an opposition MNA being the latest victim of one such occurrence. The situation can hardly be termed conducive for much needed foreign investment or tourism.
The rising crime graph should serve as a wake-up call for the country's myriad security, intelligence and law enforcement agencies. Whether it is Islamabad or any other city and whether the motivation behind a given act of terror is sectarian or religio-political militancy, the fact remains that terrorism has become a fact of life in our cities.
The need for intelligence agencies to be on a high alert and on the trail of militant groups and elements cannot be overstated. Mere fire-fighting on the part of these agencies after an act of terror has taken place cannot prevent terrorism. The task of collecting intelligence needs to be made more efficient and agencies concerned trained to pre-empt terrorism, before it can cause loss of life and property.