01 October 2004	Friday	15 Shaban 1425

MOSCOW, Sept 30: Russia's cabinet backed the Kyoto treaty on Thursday in a key step that is likely to enable the UN's global warming treaty to enter into force despite its categorical rejection by the United States.

Moscow holds the swing vote on the 1997 protocol but has been hedging its bets for years as it weighs its own economic policies against the broader diplomatic benefits of allying itself closer to Washington or Europe - the protocol's biggest fan.

Yet the Russian government decided after just a brief but heated discussion to pass the treaty on to the State Duma lower house of parliament for approval, which is all but guaranteed in a chamber where the Kremlin holds a two-thirds majority.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov said the various Russian ministries will adopt the proper legislation required for the treaty to be formally ratified by Russia within three months.

"The Kyoto Protocol represents the creation of a new corner of the global market. This market is interesting and full of potential," Zhukov said. Russia can make a short-term profit by ratifying the protocol since it requires industrialized signatories to cut output of six "greenhouse" gases by 2008-2012 compared with their 1990 levels. But Russia's industry has imploded since Soviet times and Moscow can thus sell "greenhouse" quotas to other industrialized signatories. Point Carbon, a Norway-based consultancy firm, estimated Russia could earn 10 billion dollars (8.0 billion) euros with the treaty's help by 2012.

Foreign Minister Yury Fedotov argued during the cabinet debate that a no-vote would have left Russia "marginalized... and possibly facing political and economic sanctions."

Indeed, Europe quickly hailed the decision, with the European Union calling it a "huge success." "We warmly welcome the decision," the European Commissions spokesman Reijo Kemppinen said.

Meanwhile the environmental rights group Green peace said the Russian government decision highlighted the Bush administration's isolation on global environmental issues.

"The Bush administration is out in the cold and the rest of the world can move forward as one to start tackling climate change," said Green peace climate campaigner Steve Sawyer.

There was no immediate reaction from Washington. Speculation centred on why Russia had rushed through with its decision so quickly after Putin spent years seemingly unable to make up his mind.

Some analysts suggested that several Kremlin aides initially feared that ratification of Kyoto would hurt Russia's chances of fulfilling Putin's stated goal of doubling the country's gross domestic production over the coming 10 years.

"It was time to make a decision. We once had doubts that ratifying Kyoto would prevent us from doubling the GDP over 10 years, but this was never a fair argument," said Viktor Danilov Danilyan, a member of the Russian Academy of Science.

He said that in return for accepting Kyoto, "we will receive membership in the WTO," which European states have been blocking partly because of Moscow's refusal to ratify the treaty. Others, however, saw a local political angle involving Putin and his recent political reform proposals, which would see the Kremlin scrap regional gubernatorial elections and make other controversial changes criticized by European states.

"After Putin's recent political reforms, Russia's image abroad was severely slipping, and this is an attempt to improve our image," said Masha Lipman of the Carnegie Moscow Center. "Plus, Russia was hedging its bets, while the United States was clearly taking an entrenched position and Russia understood that it could bargain a little bit." -AFP