30 September 2004	Thursday	14 Shaban 1425

WASHINGTON, Sept 29: US President George W. Bush's ability to stick to a scripted defense of his policies on Iraq and terrorism should give him an edge over Democratic rival Sen. John Kerry in Thursday's presidential debate, analysts say.

The war in Iraq, which has plagued the administration with escalating violence and intelligence lapses, is widely expected to produce the most heated rhetoric of the 90-minute face-off over foreign policy. It is the first of three Bush-Kerry debates scheduled between now and the Nov. 2 election.

Mr Kerry will likely showcase his new hard-hitting language about chaos and casualties in Iraq by accusing Mr Bush of mismanaging the war and diverting US attention from the hunt for al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden.

But analysts say Mr Bush has recently neutralized Iraq as a political liability, through campaign ads and stump speeches that have boiled the issue down to a series of scripted messages about strength and optimism.

"It's hard to argue with 'strength is good' and 'are you saying you're not for strength?'," said Thomas Carothers of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"Kerry has to be able to give an answer that's almost as short and about as punchy. And that's hard," he said. With the Republican president leading Mr Kerry in opinion polls, Thursday's debate could be the Democrat's best chance to make the case that he can better protect America.

"He hasn't shown that to enough voters yet and this is his chance to do it. It may be his last chance," said Carroll Doherty, editor at the Pew Research Center. -Reuters