Agricultur's share in Pakistan's gross domestic product (GDP) has declined from 53 per cent in 1947 to 23.3 per cent in 2004. The 66 per cent labour force engaged then, has now fallen to 44 per cent due to increased employment in industrial, manufacturing and servicing sectors.
The agro-based products contribute nearly 80 per cent to total exports. Still, this sector is shabbily treated by the governments. It's share in the budget is below the recommended 1.5 per cent. The National Commission on Agriculture in 1988 had proposed that agriculture must be given a central role in the country's development strategy.
The population which in 1948 was 32.4 million has now climbed to 145 million, and is estimated to touch 180 million by 2010 and 280 million by 2025. Unfortunately, the current agricultural growth is not above the population growth rate, despite policy makers' claim to meet the food and fibre requirements along with maintaining the export surplus.
Neither land and water are being efficiently utilized, nor the yield potential achieved. All due to the mismanagement and politicizing of the land and water resources, and the failure to implement the high production technology at field level.
Wheat projections show a shortfall of 8 million tons by 2013, and further 11 million tons by 2025. It is also estimated that by 2025, Pakistan will be short of food grains, sugar, pulses, oilseeds etc., by about 28 million tons, while the government will be forced to import edible oil, wheat, pulses, raw cotton, sugar and other agricultural commodities worth billions.
It would be difficult for the government to finance the rising bills. Food scarcity could create famine-like conditions. This is not much of a sustainable scenario. This is a warning bell for policy makers. They should devise ways to meet the future challenges, well ahead of time. Some areas of the mismanagement in agriculture are pointed out as under:
LAND RESOURCE BASE: Our fertile agricultural lands are decreasing due to the urbanization, industrialization, construction of roads, and highways. The production potential of cultivated and cultivable lands is fast declining due to the uncontrolled soil erosion, salinity, water logging and sea intrusion in the coastal belt.
Inspite of the government claims, around 11.2 million hectares(mha) of land is eroded by water and 4.73 mha by wind. Similarly, there still are 6.2 mha of slightly to highly saline-sodic soils despite borrowing billions of dollars in loans for their reclamation.
Likewise, there still are 2.5 million mha of land where water table is between 0-5 feet below the ground surface, and 6.2 mha where ground water table is between 0-10 feet inspite of spending loans in billions of dollars taken to control water logging, including the $785 million taken for the national drainage project. This reflects the poor and inefficient policy of land resource management of our agricultural managers.
Again, of the total land, around 63 per cent comprises small, subsistent and below subsistent level farms. The continued fragmentation into two or more separate holdings is a significant constraint on agricultural production.
The two land reforms of 1972 and 1977 and the Tenancy Act 2002 could not be effectively implemented due to the politically influential feudal lords. Unlike many countries we have not been able to fix a lower limit beyond which no further fragmentation can take place for sustainability of agricultural production.
Water resource base: Nature has gifted Pakistan abundantly with water resource base, with an average river flow of 144MAF in yearly fluctuations, and nearly 52MAF of groundwater.
In the cultivated command area of the Indus Basin, the total annual rainfall is estimated at 23MAF with a run-off loss of 50 per cent. If this run-off loss is reckoned at 25 per cent at the croplands, even then it would be 6MAF. And if the run-off loss over forests and range lands is added to this, the total loss would come to 9MAF. This would further increase if losses outside the Indus basin are also included.
River and canal water resources are declining due to the sedimentation of old reservoirs which seriously affects the crop production. No major reservoir has been constructed after the construction of Tarbela Dam due to the politicization and provicialization of the issue.
Out of the groundwater aquifer nearly 46 to 48MAF of water is already being used due to the increase in the number of tubewells to 703,074 in 2003 in addition to Persian wells, lift pumps, karezes etc.
The over mining of groundwater without any regard to its annual recharge rate is seriously declining the groundwater aquifer. Several areas, especially in Balochistan have already been exhausted causing serious problems to humans and livestock.
Due to poor rain-water conservation, the harvesting practices in rain-fed crops are far inadequate. Our rain-fed wheat yield is nearly 118 per cent below the irrigated wheat yield, while in many countries, by following the modern water harvesting techniques the rain-fed crop yields are nearly equal to the irrigated ones. This reflects the inefficient use of water resource base and inept policies.
CROP PRODUCTION: The country's population has increased by 122 per cent from 1972 to 2003, with a rise of 33 per cent in cropped area. Though, crop yield grew because of the high yielding varieties, the yield still is 56-84 per cent below the demonstrated potentials.
For instance, the gap between actual and potential yield of wheat is 72 per cent, sugarcane 74 per cent, rice 84 per cent, cotton (lint) 56 per cent, maize 73 per cent, pulses 86 per cent, and edible oilseeds 77 per cent.
In respect to yield per hectare, Pakistan ranks 8th in wheat, 9th in rice (paddy), 10th in cotton, 15th in maize, and virtually lowest in sugarcane inspite of having the largest irrigation system in the world.
On the other hand, India has a larger area under the rain-fed crops with the yields much higher than ours due to better planning. As a result, India has not only become self-sufficient in wheat, cotton, sugar, edible oilseeds, pulses etc., but is also exporting these commodities. We, on the other hand have been importing wheat for 47 years, as well as sugar and edible oil.
Education, research and extension: The unified agricultural education, research and extension system was disintegrated in early 60s resulting in poor linkages among these institutes and farmers. India kept its education, research and extension system highly unified and strong linkages with farmers which brought 'green revolution' there.
Pakistan has four agricultural universities, three colleges and two faculties. According to the European Union Mission, our education standards are quite low as compared to international universities.
Nearly 90 per cent of the university budget is spent on salaries and maintenance and remaining 10 per cent is inadequate for meaningful faculty and post graduate research.
Similarly, there are over 200 research institutes, stations and substations in the country, but the research and extension budget is little over 0.2 per cent of the share of agriculture to the GDP which is insufficient.
International and national consultants have reported that there is no shortage of competent scientists but too much of political and bureaucratic interference has demoralized the system. Promotions and rewards here are not made on merit but on personal likes and dislikes.
They suggested improvement by making the agricultural research system independent. No action has been taken so far, as the bureaucracy doesn't want to loosen it's hold on it. Both China and India are emerging as economic giants in South East Asia by following well-planned policies.
We, on the other hand are emerging as the most corrupt giant due to the lust for power and money. Corruption has spread to all walks of life. Common man is the ultimate sufferer. Gap between the poor and the elite is increasing.
