KARACHI, July 27: Pakistan is likely to face a shortage of water to irrigate its winter wheat crop because of lower-than- expected monsoon rains in July and slower snow-melting which has reduced water levels at the country's two main reservoirs , a senior government weather official said Tuesday.

"Water availability for the Rabi crop will be low," Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, director-general of the Pakistan Meteorological Department, told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview. "The reasons are lower rainfall and retardation of snow-melting due to unusually low temperatures on the mountains," he said.

The winter or Rabi crop consists of pulses, barley, mustard, tobacco and wheat, which is the main crop. Pakistan's wheat harvest for this marketing year ending March 2005 has concluded, with production falling to 19.7 million tons, below a targeted 20 million tons, forcing the country to make plans to import one million tons of wheat. Wheat is planted in October and harvested in April.

Chaudhry said his department was yet to change its forecast for monsoon rains in the current season, which was earlier predicted to be close to normal. Normal monsoon rains during the July-September season mean rainfall of 137 millimetres.

He said rains in the upper Punjab region had been close to normal, but there had been little rain in the southern part of the country, exposing the region to drought. "There is a drought situation emerging in Baluchistan and to some extent in Sindh. We hope rains will improve over the next two months. Otherwise, the drought might worsen, especially in Baluchistan," said Chaudhry.

India's northern states, which account for much of the country's agricultural production, have also received little rainfall this monsoon season, and there are no immediate signs of rains returning to the region.

Chaudhry said Pakistan had remained in a dry cycle since 1998, although the country had received normal rains during some seasons. Such a cycle can last as long as two decades, he said.

He said slower snow-melting has affected water levels at Pakistan's two main reservoirs - Tarbela and Mangla dams - in the country's north. The water level in Tarbela is at 1,411 feet, just above the minimum required level of 1,369 feet and far below the upper 1,550 feet level.

At Mangla, the water level is currently 1,154 feet, also close to the minimum required level of 1,040 feet, said Chaudhry. He said water levels at the reservoirs were at a "very critical stage" which was not good for availability for agriculture. Chaudhry said he had been urging farmers and the government to conserve water and to use the available supply judiciously. -Dow Jones Newswires