KARACHI, July 12: The world cotton production this season (2004-05) is projected to reach a record level of 102 million bales as against 93.57 million bales produced in 2003-04, thereby showing an increase of nine per cent.

According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), the major increase in production was expected in China (25 per cent), Pakistan (10.5 per cent), Uzbekistan (9.5 per cent) and Turkey (two per cent). At the same time, the production is projected to decline in the US by one per cent and in India by 3.8 per cent.

The projected record cotton production in 2004-05 is, however, primarily based upon the bulk increase to 28 million bales in China as against 22.37 million bales produced in 2004-04. As a result of higher production the world ending stocks are forecast to rise in 2004-05 to 39.8 million bales as against 36.15 million bales of 2003-04.

The world cotton consumption in 2004-05 is currently projected at 98.4 million bales as against 97.12 million bales of 2004-04, thus showing only a marginal increase of 1.3 per cent. Increased consumption is expected in China (five per cent), India (2.3 per cent), Pakistan (3.6 per cent) and Brazil (6.3 per cent).

The consumption in the US is likely to decline by eight per cent. Most of the increase in world cotton consumption at the end-use level is occurring in industrial countries, while increase in cotton mill use is taking place in developing countries.

As a consequence, net imports of cotton textile by industrial countries are increasing. International cotton prices declined in June 2004. With supply anticipated to exceed demand in 2004-05 the prices may remain under pressure.

According to the ICAC, the season-average Cotlook A Index will decline to 62 cents per pound in 2004-05, eight cents less than the expected average for 2003-04. In Pakistan, the current cotton crop area sown has reportedly exceeded the envisaged target of 3.14 million hectares.

Cotton acreage in Punjab is currently placed at 2.62 million hectares as against the envisaged target of 2.5 million hectares and the year's sown area of 2.44 million hectares, whereas in Sindh the cotton sowing by end-June was completed on about 0.583 million hectares as against the target of 0.590 million hectares set by the Federal Committee on Agriculture and 0.561 million hectares shown last year.

According to the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee (PCCC), the cotton showing in Ghotki and parts of Sukkur district has been delayed this year due to canal breaches.

The final area estimates by the provinces are yet to be released, it is however expected that on national basis the cotton area sown this season would possibly be five per cent more than the target.

The PCCC further stated that the crop throughout the cotton belt was reportedly progressing well. Sucking pests and boll worm infestation is presently below the economic injury level.

Cotton leaf curl virus symptoms are however reported from many places in Punjab but its intensity has so far been low. In Sindh as well, mild to medium CLCV infestation is reported in pockets, particularly in Sanghar district where unauthorized cotton varieties in the name Bt cotton are cultivated.

The situation to date is however not alarming, says the PCCC, but the provincial agriculture departments and the growers need to concentrate on pests and pesticides management to avoid any economic loss.

Thus, with the larger area sown, normal monsoon and controlled insect pests activity the PCCC believes that the country is likely to achieve the envisaged production target of 10.72 million bales this season.

For the purpose, the ministry of food, agriculture and livestock had already drawn up a comprehensive cotton production strategy for 2004-05 and brought to the notice of all concerned for undertaking timely precautionary and ameliorative measures in order to ensure a sizable cotton crop this season, the PCCC stated.