21 June 2004 Monday 02 Jamadi-ul-Awwal 1425 How free is the budget from the IMF's influence? Up front, the federal budget (2004-05) gives the impression of an expansionary budget, with emphasis on human capital too, all of which is simplistically believed to be contrary to the IMF's tough anti-inflationary policy prescriptions. ... Confusing indicators about economic management The need for reliable indicators of basic economic variables for realistic economic management can never over-emphasized. It is more so as one moves from a totally planned economy to a predominantly privatized market-oriented economy. ... Employment outlook The government reckons that one million jobs would be created next year by an enlarged Rs202 billion Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) 2005 designed to trigger an accelerated pace of economic growth. ... PSDP raise is a PR exercise Articles, reviews and reports on budget are mostly tedious and repetitive. But one craves the indulgence of the reader some more. The only thing the present rulers have been crowing about for the last five years ... Will the poor benefit from economic growth? The Economic Survey 2003-04 and the budget for fiscal year 2004-05 surely presented a rosy picture of the country's economy. A substantial degree of macro-economic stability has been achieved. ... The ever-soaring cost of government When in a developing country with severely limited resources and competing demands on them over four million employees of the government have to be given substantial pay rise, the increase in expenditure can be very large. ... Fiction called the Pakistani private sector The day after the budget I had the privilege of meeting three top tycoons of this country, all at the same function, but separately. These three perhaps rank among the top ten business captains in the country. ... Dangerously ambitious? Whatever the reaction to it, the budget speech of the federal finance minister provided listeners several opportunities to smile; his pronunciation of some Urdu words was hilarious. ... Housing is a happening sector Housing and construction has assumed a more important place in the priorities of the government as this is seen as a sector through which the twin challenge of employment generation and improving infrastructure can be achieved. ... The neglect of the social sector Rapid improvement in social sectors is indispensable for national progress in general and economic growth in particular. Theory and empirical evidence endorse this uncontested assertion. ... Industry becomes the pace-setter The federal Budget (2004-05) is indeed a manifestation of the availability of fiscal space, stemming from 6.4 per cent GDP growth, led by spectacular rise in industrial production ... Farmers' package: all depends on implementation First came the Economic Survey and then the Budget for the year 2004-5. Policy declarations, speeches and statements of the President of Pakistan ... Sindh budget: a confusing exercise What is a budget? A simple income-expenditure statement. If expenditure exceeds the income, the budget makers indicate how the resultant deficit is being plugged-borrowing ... Little promise for Karachi The second and third weeks of June buzzed with budget tales. The Federal and Sindh Budgets were announced with a hoard of claims by the governments. Amongst them included the repeated assurance to boost certain sectors with larger than previous allocations. ... Badla financing badly hit - parleys about CVT under way The issue of the capital value tax (CVT) dominated the trading on the stock market throughout the last week as investors were in two minds and mostly played despite a loud whispering of an amicable settlement in the backdrop of hectic Islamabad parleys. ... Demand for dollar surges on bank buying The demand for dollars has surged in the local market as banks are actively engaged in buying US currency for meeting their immediate requirements. Nothing was new in the market and the banks were demanding dollars for clearing the big payments before June 30. ...

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