13 June 2004	Sunday	24 Rabi-us-Saani 1425

ISLAMABAD, June 12: The agriculture growth slowed by 1.5 per cent to 2.6 per cent during 2003-04, according to the Economic Survey released by the government here on Friday.

The reason given for the sluggish growth in the sector, which contributes 23.3 per cent to GDP, was largely weather. This only highlights the fact that there has been almost zero change so far as its dependence on the elements is concerned.

A profusion of agricultural research institutes notwithstanding, it is evident from the Survey's description of lacklustre performance of agriculture in Pakistan thus remains largely primitive.

The situation is all the more disturbing in the perspective of its performance in longer term. The average growth rate of agriculture during 1990s is shown as 4.54 per cent per annum. During four years of the current decade, its average rate of growth dropped to 4.4 per cent.

The 2003-04 was the year when the water availability improved, marking the end of 3-year drought, the Survey notes. The canal head withdrawal in the Kharif 2003 and Rabi 2003-04 increased by 4.96 per cent and 26.16 per cent, respectively, over the corresponding periods of previous year.

Moreover, heavy snowfall on the mountains during winter 2004 is expected to fill the water reservoirs and alleviate water shortages to a great extent for the Kharif 2004.

On the whole, observes the Economic Survey, the water situation appears better in 2003-04 than last year but "still lesser than normal supplies".

The growth rate in major crops, accounting for 34.2 per cent of agricultural value added (AVA) improved by 4.08 per cent in 1990s, while it became negative 1.7 per cent during the period 2000-04.

The minor crops saw growth rate at 3.84 per cent in 1990s, but it tumbled to minus 4.8 per cent during the current decade.

During 2003-04, it is stated, the major crops limped to produce a growth rate of 2.8 per cent, as compared to 6.9 per cent during the previous year, while the minor groups (constituting 12.4 per cent of AVA) reportedly improved their performance with a growth rate of 1.7 per cent, as against a mere 0.4 per cent during 2002-03.

Livestock, the largest contributor to overall AVA (49.1 per cent), grew by 2.6 per cent in 2003-04 as 2.8 per cent in 2002-03. Fisheries, accounting for 1.4 per cent AVA showed a growth rate of 2 per cent as against 3.4 per cent of last year. The lower rate of growth was due to the oil spill from Tasman Spirit, the Survey asserts.

WHEAT: For the first time, the government admitted through the Economic Survey (Chapter on Inflation) that the wheat output in 2002-03 fell short of the target and that the import of wheat was delayed and, moreover, that resultantly the hoarders had the field day to reap windfall profits from wheat flour.

In 2003-04, the officially estimated size of wheat crop is 197,670,00 tons which is 3 per cent higher than last year. According to a table, the wheat yield declined from 2,491 kg in 1999-2000 to 2,418 kg in 2003-04.

As compared to 2002-03, however, its per hectare yield was up by 1.2 per cent.

Another reason for rise in overall output was 1.8 per cent increase in acreage over previous year.

During the period 1999 to 2004, however, the area under wheat fell by 1.3 million hectares to 8.17 million tons.