Wheat situation, which was claimed to be normalized by February following the harvest of 2003-04 crop in Sindh, has not been so despite claims of the government. With every passing day wheat issue is getting more complex.

Wheat shortage, developed into a crisis late last year, has lingered on to this day. It has now reached a point where the provincial harmony is under threat. The official reports that Pakistan would harvest around 200 million tonnes of wheat this year could do little to change the situation.

Despite proclamations by officials that there was no demand-supply gap, market conditions narrate a different story with wheat flour prices sky-rocketing in all four corners of the country.

The question is if the country has enough stocks to meet food requirements then why the flour prices have soared to all-time high levels. This too, despite assurances from Punjab to Sindh and the NWFP to supply flour at the officially fixed rate.

At a time when the Sindh crop is almost harvested and the Punjab's at half-way, the situation is heading to nowhere. Meetings among the provincial food secretaries, ministers and the federal government have remained inconclusive so far, as the federal government and the three provinces have failed in convincing Punjab to lift the inter-provincial wheat movement ban.

Contrary to an agreement with the Asian Development Bank on keeping wheat movement free in the country, the inter-district and inter-provincial restriction is a routine practice to force farmers in disposing off their stocks to government agencies at the prescribed rate.

Now, the government is facing procurement problems to maintain their strategic reserves. The open market wheat prices, both in Punjab and Sindh, are far more attractive to farmers than the officially fixed rates of Rs350 for 40kg.

This difference has affected the government's campaign to procure wheat from farmers. As is evident from the print media, farmers and traders have hoarded wheat in Punjab and Sindh and and want to sell it at higher than the official rates being quoted by the two provinces, and even by the federal government through Passco.

So far, Punjab has been able to lift only 1.25 million tonnes as against a target of 3.5 million tonnes. Sindh on the other hand has set 600,000 tonnes target, the food department has informed the government that it cannot achieve this target.

The Sindh government too, is considering import of at least one million tonnes to meet its need. The annual requirement is around 4.25 million tonnes as against its expected production of 2.15 million tonnes leaving a shortfall of 2.1 million tonnes.

Sindh is likely to face wheat crisis again in October, November and beyond, as no clear roadmap on provincial or federal level has been drawn to meet the deficit. Karachi and Hyderabad with almost half of Sindh's population of 35 million are attracting a big inflow of wheat thus impeding official procurement. Their total demand is over 120,000 tonnes, a month.

It appears the government's current policy is baffling. Inefficiency and incompetence of the concerned agencies may push Pakistan back among wheat imports. Shortage of this staple food poses a vital question. Can a country which fails to grow enough wheat to feed its people truly call itself agricultural?

The ministry of food and agriculture has estimated production for 2003-04 crop at 20.1 million tonnes, which is sufficient to fulfill the country's requirements during 2004-05 - a figure contested by the knowledgeable quarters.

Pakistan's wheat needs are 55,000 tonnes daily. The provincial food department has calculated per capita consumption at 124kg, while the Agricultural Prices Commission estimates the same at 135kg - making an allowance for smuggling, leakages and underreporting.

At this rate for a population of 150 million, total requirements work out to at 20.25 million tonnes. With one million tonnes required for food security, we will need 21.25 million tones during year 2004-05, leaving a deficit of 1.25 million tones. There is no mentioning at the federal government level as to where from this shortfall will be met the following year.

Wheat occupies around 38 per cent of our total cultivated area. Despite having the world's largest irrigation system we imported the commodity for 46 years out 56 years since 1947.

The country produced a bumper crop of over 21 million tons in 1999-00 resulting in wheat export during the three succeeding years. Nevertheless, poor marketing system and inadequate storage facilities led to severe shortage in spite of the claims of sufficient reserves by the government.

A major breakthrough in the agriculture sector, particularly in wheat crop is required to avert the catastrophic situation in the near future. In spite of a high fertilizer usage which equals that of many developed countries, Pakistan is well behind the wheat producing countries as far as the per hectare yield is concerned.

It not only trails much low behind the UK, the top per hectare wheat producer of the world at 7.7 tonne but also India, which produces 2.51 tonnes of wheat per hectare as compared to Pakistan's 2.1 tonnes per hectare.

The highest yield of wheat ever achieved in Pakistan is just 2,491kg per hectare. This difference in yield is in spite of the fact that nearly 70 per cent of the cultivated area of India is rain-fed as against 80 per cent of our cultivated area being irrigated.

It is unfortunate that though Pakistan is 7th largest wheat growing country in the world but ranks 59th in terms of yield per hectare. The expected current year crop looks insufficient to underwrite post-harvest losses, seed retained for the next cultivation and wide scale smuggling by the private sector.

The recent dust storm and rain in Punjab would have certainly damaged the standing crops in many parts of the province, besides damaging the harvested crop that was lying in the open in many fields across the Punjab.

After deducting 15 per cent from the output for seed and nominal post-harvest losses, experts predict that 16 million-tonne target of Punjab may fall to 14 million tonnes at the end, thereby adding to the shortfall of the country's staple food in the coming days.

Wheat situation comes under pressure in Pakistan not because of yield but also due to smuggling to Afghanistan, which is an established fact. Conservative estimates put 1,000 to 1,500 tonnes of wheat going to Afghanistan daily across the porous and unmanageable border with the NWFP and Balochistan.

Interestingly, the movement of wheat took place over the metalled roads where anti-smuggling forces of several agencies, including para-military forces exist. Analysts say that a harvest of 20 million tonnes is sufficient for the country's requirement provided the government can plug smuggling.

Apart from checking free smuggling and hoarding there is a dire need to review the number of floor mills, their grinding capacity and allocated quota to these mills across the country immediately. There seems to be no relation between the population and number of floor mills in all four provinces.

Punjab has over 400 four mills with a grinding capacity five times the requirement of the province. Sindh has 140 flour mills where as the NWFP has 235 mills with the flour production capacity of five time more than the provincial requirement.

These flour mills get the wheat quota according to the capacity on subsidized rates and then uses this wheat for smuggling and profit taking. At one time the annual subsidy on wheat touched Rs20 billion figure.

The benefit of this subsidy was never given to consumers but the millers and traders always thrived. For last many years, the flour mills have thrived on the release of subsidized wheat from government stocks.

Powerful political families and those of retired armed services and civil servants live on subsidized wheat. The onus of the responsibility for resolving this shortages lies more on the federal government than the provinces as the food is a federal concern. Therefore, it must come up with firm remedial measures on the wheat situation without any further loss of time.