KARACHI: Opinions are divided as to the impact free intra-regional trade among Safta countries may have on a member country's economy, but leading corporate bosses agree that if the policy guidelines are followed Safta could benefit member nations in their respective fields of activity.

"It may not be that easy to operate well above the break-even point in a two-way free market of about $200 billion," says Zeum A. Hanfi whose highly export-oriented industry will be in direct conflict with his Indian counterparts. "The government will have to subsidize higher cost of inputs and services as India does to keep our products competitive in both local and foreign markets." A lot of aggressive salesmanship, enterprising spirit and courage will be needed to steer clear of the impending initial mess after Safta comes into effect," he adds.

"But the launching of Safta is still two years away and during the intervening period world trade could undergo significant changes, with the WTO regime having negative impact on the weaker economies," another corporate boss fears.

On the other hand, there are others who doubt Safta's very launch within the stipulated time, and say, "let us first face the WTO and then think of Safta."

"No one could deny the benefits of regional trade groupings on the pattern of the European Union and the allied boost these give to the respective industries in the member countries, but their inception must be backed by political ethics," says the owner of a leading IT company, adding that "warring neighbours could hardly think of mutual trade benefits."

India earlier this year has launched an ambitious export programme under which it plans to boost exports to south Asian countries to $15 billion during the next five years. This has led others to question as to the share of other Safta members. However, the more enlightened among the local corporate players are of the view that regional free trade could be boon or bane depending on how big partners treat smaller ones.

There is another group of corporate bosses who believe that the launching of Safta could well prove a miracle. They say that no one could deny the positive side of free trade, which will generate intra-regional employment opportunities and joint ventures, and maximise industrial input costs on many counts.

"Both Pakistan and India could assume the role of trendsetters, as their respective industrial bases are fairly strong, having access to diversified export outlets. How India and Pakistan will take along their weaker partners will contribute to the sustainability of the arrangement for the regional benefit," a textile tycoon says.

But the general perception is that the local auto, pharmaceutical and chemical industries may be hard hit as they may not be in a position to remain competitive in the face of imports from India.

"We have adjusted our priorities to counter the invasion by Chinese goods, which comes from a stronger industrial base than India's, thus apprehensions appear to be unfounded," opine some other pharmaceutical and chemical bosses confidently.

But the local car assemblers remain worried, fearing that Safta will expose them to an open market, where the Indians could beat them both on price and delivery counts.