NEW DELHI, March 7: Cricket matches starting this week between India and Pakistan could affect the fortunes of politicians in the two countries, but they are even more likely to impact on the market sentiment at their domestic bourses, Indian analysts said on Sunday.

Leading Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) said they were keenly studying the game's wayward possibilities ahead of the series. But senior Indian analysts said trouble could yet break out if any of the players was harmed, a fear already rejected by Pakistani authorities as unfounded.

Indian news reports from Lahore also quoted Pakistani officials as encouragingly saying that the host cricket board would invite senior Indian politicians, including Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and possibly even the rightwing anti-Pakistan hawk, Balasaheb Thackeray. Mr Vajpayee has said the matter is hypothetical and Mr Thackeray was inaccessible to comment.

Opposition leader Sonia Gandhi is expected to watch the last two one-day internationals in Lahore, The Hindustan Times said. Her children, Priyanka Vadra and Rahul Gandhi, were confirmed to be in Karachi for the first one-day match, it quoted Pakistan Cricket Board chief Shaharyar Khan as saying.

Analysts observed that at a widely-watched TV programme, a participant said any harm done to Sachin Tendulkar during the tour would range the people of Pakistan against their own government. The audience clapped.

"Didn't the audience appreciate that terrorists might strike precisely for the purpose of destroying Musharraf, Vajpayee and the whole peace process?" asked veteran analyst Rajinder Puri.

"To cross a red light during traffic might entail a 10 per cent chance of accident. But if the accident occurs, it could be fatal. So people avoid crossing at a red light. The cricket tour in present circumstances is like a red light.

An accident could be fatal. But both the Indian and Pakistani governments have gone ahead. The overall context in which the tour is being held is horrendous," Mr Puri wrote in the Outlook magazine.

He argued that even though Mr Vajpayee and President Pervez Musharraf had agreed to resume the cricket tournament as part of the peace process, Indian Deputy Prime Minister Lal Krishan Advani had forced India into an early election, which changed the context of the cricket tournament.

"After Saarc, the Advani faction inexplicably forced a general election months before its due date. That puts the peace process in jeopardy. Mr Vajpayee was initially against advancing the poll. But at the Hyderabad session of the BJP national executive, Mr Advani and rebellious party office-bearers forced Mr Vajpayee's hand. With characteristic weakness, he succumbed to pressure."

In March, the election process in India picks up. "A major terrorist strike could not only derail the peace process but also remove Vajpayee, the most persistent advocate of Indo-Pak peace," Mr Puri said.

The Business Standard said FIIs are as much concerned about Shoaib Akhtar's bowling and Sachin Tendulkar's batting records as India Inc's return on equity and earning per share.

"Frankly, we have one eye on cricket and another on elections. Both will have impact on the markets," it quoted a source as with a leading FII as saying. The FII has over $1 billion exposure to Indian companies.

If the sources are to be believed, their analysts who track different sectors and companies are now taking a closer look at the strike rates of batsmen in one-day games and average run per over given by the bowlers.

"It's not funny, you know. We seriously believe that the series will influence the relationship between the two countries. It may even have a bearing on the outcome of elections," said another fund manager.